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The USDA and the International Grains Council confirmed that global supplies of wheat exceeded earlier expectations and that a bumper wheat harvest in the southern hemisphere helped ease supply concerns
.
The dry winter wheat producing areas of the United States will usher in rain, and weak export sales of US wheat will also be detrimental to wheat prices
.
March soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell about 17 cents, or 2.
24%, to settle at 741.
50 cents a bush on Friday
.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around 745 cents a bush, down 30 cents, or 3.
87%, from a week ago
.
March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around 878.
25 cents a bush, down 45 cents, or 4.
87%, from a week ago
.
March 2022 milling wheat futures on Euronext traded at around €263.
50/tonne, down €11 or 4% from a week earlier
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was $300/ton, down $8 or 2.
6% from a week ago, FOB price
.
24%, to settle at 741.
50 cents a bush on Friday
.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around 745 cents a bush, down 30 cents, or 3.
87%, from a week ago
.
March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around 878.
25 cents a bush, down 45 cents, or 4.
87%, from a week ago
.
March 2022 milling wheat futures on Euronext traded at around €263.
50/tonne, down €11 or 4% from a week earlier
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was $300/ton, down $8 or 2.
6% from a week ago, FOB price
.
Global wheat production in 2022/23 expected to hit record high
The International Grains Council (IGC) released its first forecast for global wheat production in 2022/23 in its January report, which is expected to grow for the fourth consecutive year and hit a record high
.
.
The IGC said, however, that wheat stocks were little changed despite an expected increase in production
.
In fact, wheat ending stocks have been hovering around 276 million tons since 2019/20
.
Global inventories are little changed year-on-year as global wheat consumption is also set to hit a new high, the IGC said
.
In addition, stocks in major wheat exporters are expected to remain below average
.
Wheat stocks in major global exporters in 2021/22 stood at 54 million tonnes, down from 69 million three years ago
.
.
In fact, wheat ending stocks have been hovering around 276 million tons since 2019/20
.
Global inventories are little changed year-on-year as global wheat consumption is also set to hit a new high, the IGC said
.
In addition, stocks in major wheat exporters are expected to remain below average
.
Wheat stocks in major global exporters in 2021/22 stood at 54 million tonnes, down from 69 million three years ago
.
The global wheat stocks-to-use ratio also tightened further, from 31.
1% in 2021/22 to 30.
9%
.
But wheat prices are still set to fall due to a modest increase in wheat supplies from major exporters
.
1% in 2021/22 to 30.
9%
.
But wheat prices are still set to fall due to a modest increase in wheat supplies from major exporters
.
Strategic Grains expects global wheat production in 2022/23 to rise by 24.
3 million tonnes year-on-year as production in Canada and the United States recovers from last year's drought
.
Global wheat stocks in 2022/23 only edged up by 4.
1 million tonnes, as despite an expected increase in production, this is almost offset by increases in feed and industrial consumption
.
Strategic Grains expects the average price of milling wheat to fall to $260 to $270 per ton in 2022/23 (depending on origin), down about $50 per ton from 2021/22 and $25 to $35 from current prices
.
3 million tonnes year-on-year as production in Canada and the United States recovers from last year's drought
.
Global wheat stocks in 2022/23 only edged up by 4.
1 million tonnes, as despite an expected increase in production, this is almost offset by increases in feed and industrial consumption
.
Strategic Grains expects the average price of milling wheat to fall to $260 to $270 per ton in 2022/23 (depending on origin), down about $50 per ton from 2021/22 and $25 to $35 from current prices
.
In its January monthly supply and demand report, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture projected global ending stocks of wheat in 2021/22 at 280 million tons, up 1.
8 million tons from the previous month and exceeding analysts’ forecast of 278.
67 million tons
.
However, global wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 remain the lowest since 2016/17
.
S.
Department of Agriculture projected global ending stocks of wheat in 2021/22 at 280 million tons, up 1.
8 million tons from the previous month and exceeding analysts’ forecast of 278.
67 million tons
.
However, global wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 remain the lowest since 2016/17
.
U.
S.
wheat acreage expected to rise in 2022
S.
wheat acreage expected to rise in 2022
Wheat prices have climbed steadily over the past year and hit a nine-year high in November, encouraging U.
S.
farmers to grow more wheat
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture expects U.
S.
winter wheat plantings to reach 34.
397 million acres in 2022, up 2 percent from a year earlier and above analysts’ forecast of 34.
255 million acres
.
Although the recent dry weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States has led to a decline in crop conditions, the weather situation after the winter wheat turns green is the key to determining the yield potential
.
S.
farmers to grow more wheat
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture expects U.
S.
winter wheat plantings to reach 34.
397 million acres in 2022, up 2 percent from a year earlier and above analysts’ forecast of 34.
255 million acres
.
Although the recent dry weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States has led to a decline in crop conditions, the weather situation after the winter wheat turns green is the key to determining the yield potential
.
U.
S.
wheat export sales remain subdued
S.
wheat export sales remain subdued
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 264,400 tons for the week ended January 6, 2022, higher than last week's annual low but 20% below the four-week average.
%
.
So far this year, U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 16.
1475 million tons, down 23.
3 percent year-on-year
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 264,400 tons for the week ended January 6, 2022, higher than last week's annual low but 20% below the four-week average.
%
.
So far this year, U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 16.
1475 million tons, down 23.
3 percent year-on-year
.
Russian wheat export tariffs lead to slower pace of exports
Recently, Russia announced that it will implement an export quota of 8 million tons of wheat from mid-February to June, which may limit the export potential in the second half of the 2021/22 season.
Coupled with the continued high export tariffs on wheat, the pace of Russian wheat exports has slowed down
.
Between July 1 and December 31, 2021, Russia exported 21.
6 million tons of wheat, down 19.
7 percent from the same period a year earlier, data from the Russian Federal Phytosanitary Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) showed
.
The USDA lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1 million tons to 35 million in its January supply and demand report
.
Coupled with the continued high export tariffs on wheat, the pace of Russian wheat exports has slowed down
.
Between July 1 and December 31, 2021, Russia exported 21.
6 million tons of wheat, down 19.
7 percent from the same period a year earlier, data from the Russian Federal Phytosanitary Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) showed
.
The USDA lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1 million tons to 35 million in its January supply and demand report
.
