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Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures closed at about $753.
5 a bushel on Friday, up 2.
6 percent
from a week ago.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about $8.
44/bu, up 1.
3 percent
from a week ago.
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) March hard red spring wheat futures settled at about $9.
095/bu, up 0.
89 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's March 2023 futures closed at around 297.
5 euros/mt, down 1.
7% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot quotations were $396/mt, up 0.
5%
from a week ago.
5 a bushel on Friday, up 2.
6 percent
from a week ago.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about $8.
44/bu, up 1.
3 percent
from a week ago.
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) March hard red spring wheat futures settled at about $9.
095/bu, up 0.
89 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's March 2023 futures closed at around 297.
5 euros/mt, down 1.
7% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot quotations were $396/mt, up 0.
5%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 104.
661 on Friday, down 0.
1 percent
from a week ago.
661 on Friday, down 0.
1 percent
from a week ago.
U.
S.
wheat exports improved, but remained lagging overall
S.
wheat exports improved, but remained lagging overall
U.
S.
wheat sales were 470,000 mt in the week ended Dec.
8, up from 190,000 mt a week earlier and also above the high end
of the market expectation range, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
Wheat prices generally fell in the second half of the year, falling 20%
since October.
S.
wheat sales were 470,000 mt in the week ended Dec.
8, up from 190,000 mt a week earlier and also above the high end
of the market expectation range, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
Wheat prices generally fell in the second half of the year, falling 20%
since October.
However, the overall pace of U.
S.
wheat export sales is still lagging behind, with total U.
S.
wheat sales of 14.
1104 million tons so far this year, down 7.
2%
from 15.
2096 million tons in the same period last year.
S.
wheat export sales is still lagging behind, with total U.
S.
wheat sales of 14.
1104 million tons so far this year, down 7.
2%
from 15.
2096 million tons in the same period last year.
To add insult to drought, Argentina's wheat production fell again
On December 15, the Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2022/23 wheat production forecast for Argentina by 3% due to drought and then frost
.
The exchange expects Argentina to produce 11.
5 million mt of wheat, down from a previous estimate of 11.
8 million mt and well below its forecast of 19 million mt
in May.
At present, about
62% of the wheat has been harvested.
The drought led to the abandonment of 900,000 hectares of wheat
.
.
The exchange expects Argentina to produce 11.
5 million mt of wheat, down from a previous estimate of 11.
8 million mt and well below its forecast of 19 million mt
in May.
At present, about
62% of the wheat has been harvested.
The drought led to the abandonment of 900,000 hectares of wheat
.
EU wheat production is expected to return to growth in 2023
Strategic Grains initially forecasts EU27 soft wheat production of 128.
7 million mt in 2023/24, up from 125.
5 million mt
in the previous year.
The EU is likely to face pressure on wheat supplies due to limited demand growth, with European wheat prices likely to fall
for the remainder of the year and in 2023/24.
7 million mt in 2023/24, up from 125.
5 million mt
in the previous year.
The EU is likely to face pressure on wheat supplies due to limited demand growth, with European wheat prices likely to fall
for the remainder of the year and in 2023/24.
Strategic Grains also forecasted for the first time that global soft wheat production in 2023/24 would reach 731.
8 million mt, up 1% year-on-year; All wheat production was 768.
2 million tonnes, up 1.
4%
year-on-year.
8 million mt, up 1% year-on-year; All wheat production was 768.
2 million tonnes, up 1.
4%
year-on-year.
Russia may increase its grain export quota
Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patushev said that if necessary, the Ministry of Agriculture may increase the quota
for grain exports for 2022/23.
However, this statement is more symbolic, because the quota that has been allocated is as high as 25.
5 million tons, 2.
5 times that of last year, enough to meet export demand
.
Russia's grain export quota is valid from February 15 to June 30
.
Last year's grain export quota was 11 million tonnes, of which 8 million tonnes were earmarked for wheat
.
for grain exports for 2022/23.
However, this statement is more symbolic, because the quota that has been allocated is as high as 25.
5 million tons, 2.
5 times that of last year, enough to meet export demand
.
Russia's grain export quota is valid from February 15 to June 30
.
Last year's grain export quota was 11 million tonnes, of which 8 million tonnes were earmarked for wheat
.
The Black Sea agreement will not expand in the short term
While Ukraine has been calling for the inclusion of more Black Sea ports in Black Sea export agreements and shorter vessel inspection times, UN aid chief Martin Griffith said on Dec.
15 that expanding the Black Sea agreement
is unlikely in the short term.
The 120-day extension expires in March
.
Russia's recent intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to a lack of sufficient power supply in some ports, affecting the storage and handling
of grain.
Ukraine's grain industry has called on the government to prioritize electricity for grain exports
.
15 that expanding the Black Sea agreement
is unlikely in the short term.
The 120-day extension expires in March
.
Russia's recent intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to a lack of sufficient power supply in some ports, affecting the storage and handling
of grain.
Ukraine's grain industry has called on the government to prioritize electricity for grain exports
.
Indian wheat stocks continue to decline
Government stocks of wheat stood at 19 million mt on Dec.
1, down 2 million mt from early November and well below 37.
85 million mt a year ago and the lowest level in six years as demand rose and inventories fell
.
Wheat stocks held by the Indian government are expected to be 15.
9 million mt by early January 2023, but still above the buffer demand
of 13.
8 million, according to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs and Food.
So far in 2022/23 (starting in April), the Indian government has acquired a small 18.
8 million mt, well below the 43.
3 million mt in 2021/22 as the market price is higher than the minimum government purchase price
.
Domestic wheat prices have also risen to record
highs.
Quoted at Rs 26,785 per tonne on Dec 13, up nearly 28 per cent
since May.
As of Dec.
16, Indian farmers have sown 28.
65 million hectares of winter wheat, up nearly 3 percent year-on-year, which will be harvested
in April.
Indian wheat prices are expected to remain high until new wheat is available
.
1, down 2 million mt from early November and well below 37.
85 million mt a year ago and the lowest level in six years as demand rose and inventories fell
.
Wheat stocks held by the Indian government are expected to be 15.
9 million mt by early January 2023, but still above the buffer demand
of 13.
8 million, according to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs and Food.
So far in 2022/23 (starting in April), the Indian government has acquired a small 18.
8 million mt, well below the 43.
3 million mt in 2021/22 as the market price is higher than the minimum government purchase price
.
Domestic wheat prices have also risen to record
highs.
Quoted at Rs 26,785 per tonne on Dec 13, up nearly 28 per cent
since May.
As of Dec.
16, Indian farmers have sown 28.
65 million hectares of winter wheat, up nearly 3 percent year-on-year, which will be harvested
in April.
Indian wheat prices are expected to remain high until new wheat is available
.
Canada's wheat ending stocks were revised down by 1 million tonnes
Agriculture Canada (AAFC) forecast ending stocks of 5 million mt of Canadian wheat for 2022/23 on Friday, down from 6 million mt forecast in November but well above the previous year's 3.
67 million mt
.
67 million mt
.
All wheat production in 2022/23 is expected to be 33.
82 million mt, down from 34.
7 million mt forecast in November but up from 22.
3 million mt in the previous year.
Exports are expected to be 23.
7 million mt, up from 23.
5 million mt forecast in November and also up from 15.
13 million mt
last year.
82 million mt, down from 34.
7 million mt forecast in November but up from 22.
3 million mt in the previous year.
Exports are expected to be 23.
7 million mt, up from 23.
5 million mt forecast in November and also up from 15.
13 million mt
last year.
