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After Russia and Argentina introduced policies to restrict wheat exports last week , Ukraine may also consider restricting exports; the dry weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the United States has worsened the outlook for wheat production; global wheat import demand remains strong, which continues to support wheat prices
.
However, the increase in wheat production expectations in Argentina and Russia may limit the room for wheat prices to rise
.
On Thursday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures rose about 39.
75 cents or 5% from a week ago to close at 814.
75 cents per cat
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 861.
50 cents/bus, up 51.
50 cents or 6.
4% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at 1032.
50 cents per bus, up 10 cents or 1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period reported about 290.
25 euros/ton, an increase of 11.
75 euros or 4.
2% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is US$318/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.
75 cents or 5% from a week ago to close at 814.
75 cents per cat
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 861.
50 cents/bus, up 51.
50 cents or 6.
4% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at 1032.
50 cents per bus, up 10 cents or 1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period reported about 290.
25 euros/ton, an increase of 11.
75 euros or 4.
2% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is US$318/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.
The US dollar index closed at 96.
06 points this week, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
06 points this week, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
Many major exporting countries have introduced export restrictions
Last week, Argentina and Russia announced measures to restrict the export of grains such as wheat, aimed at curbing domestic food inflation
.
Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that global food inflation this year hit the highest level in 10 years
.
.
Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that global food inflation this year hit the highest level in 10 years
.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs has set the wheat export quota for the first half of 2022 at 8 million tons, which is 1 million tons lower than the market's earlier rumored quota, which has triggered concerns about the global supply of wheat exports
.
.
There were reports this week that Ukraine will consider restricting the export of milled wheat in the first half of 2022
.
Government officials may make a decision on this matter in mid-January
.
Ukrainian government officials worry that strong wheat exports will lead to an increase in the price of domestic high-quality milling wheat, thereby pushing up domestic food inflation
.
The current Ukrainian inflation rate is close to the 2018 high
.
.
Government officials may make a decision on this matter in mid-January
.
Ukrainian government officials worry that strong wheat exports will lead to an increase in the price of domestic high-quality milling wheat, thereby pushing up domestic food inflation
.
The current Ukrainian inflation rate is close to the 2018 high
.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of December 22, Ukraine’s wheat exports in the year 2021/22 (beginning in July) were 15.
619 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.
1%
.
The export volume of barley was 5.
111 million tons, an increase of 36.
4% year-on-year
.
Corn exports were 9.
062 million tons, an increase of 726,000 tons year-on-year
.
619 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.
1%
.
The export volume of barley was 5.
111 million tons, an increase of 36.
4% year-on-year
.
Corn exports were 9.
062 million tons, an increase of 726,000 tons year-on-year
.
The Ukrainian Grain Traders Association (UGA) said on Thursday that Ukraine has enough wheat to ensure domestic demand without restricting exports
.
According to the memorandum reached between the government and traders, the highest wheat exports in 2021/22 will be 25.
3 million tons
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2021/22 will reach 24.
2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.
6%
.
Analysts said that without affecting domestic consumer demand, Ukraine can export another 10 million tons of wheat, including 4 million tons of milled wheat and 6 million tons of feed wheat
.
.
According to the memorandum reached between the government and traders, the highest wheat exports in 2021/22 will be 25.
3 million tons
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2021/22 will reach 24.
2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.
6%
.
Analysts said that without affecting domestic consumer demand, Ukraine can export another 10 million tons of wheat, including 4 million tons of milled wheat and 6 million tons of feed wheat
.
Bad weather in the Great Plains
The weather situation in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States has not improved
.
A strong hurricane-level wind last week caused varying degrees of damage to the local winter wheat crops that have been under pressure from moisture shortages due to dry weather
.
The continued dry weather means that the wheat crop is in urgent need of precipitation, but weather forecasts indicate that the weather may still be dry
.
Some agricultural experts said that there is no doubt that some wheat crops have already been harvested, but there may be more wheat fields that have been severely damaged.
From now on, the weather will be very important
.
.
A strong hurricane-level wind last week caused varying degrees of damage to the local winter wheat crops that have been under pressure from moisture shortages due to dry weather
.
The continued dry weather means that the wheat crop is in urgent need of precipitation, but weather forecasts indicate that the weather may still be dry
.
Some agricultural experts said that there is no doubt that some wheat crops have already been harvested, but there may be more wheat fields that have been severely damaged.
From now on, the weather will be very important
.
Canadian wheat production cuts
The Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food (AAFC) in its December supply and demand report reduced all Canadian wheat production in 2021/22 to 21.
652 million tons, which was lower than the November forecast of 21.
715 million tons, and was also much lower than the 2020/21 season.
35.
183 million tons
.
This is mainly because the durum wheat output has been reduced by 890,000 tons, from the 3.
545 million tons expected last month to 2.
654 million tons, which is only 40% of the previous year's output
.
Wheat output excluding durum wheat is expected to be 18.
998 million tons, an increase of 828,000 tons from last month's forecast of 18.
17 million tons, of which spring wheat production was raised by 688,000 tons and winter wheat production was raised by 140,000 tons
.
652 million tons, which was lower than the November forecast of 21.
715 million tons, and was also much lower than the 2020/21 season.
35.
183 million tons
.
This is mainly because the durum wheat output has been reduced by 890,000 tons, from the 3.
545 million tons expected last month to 2.
654 million tons, which is only 40% of the previous year's output
.
Wheat output excluding durum wheat is expected to be 18.
998 million tons, an increase of 828,000 tons from last month's forecast of 18.
17 million tons, of which spring wheat production was raised by 688,000 tons and winter wheat production was raised by 140,000 tons
.
Argentina and Russia increase wheat production
Following the recent increase in wheat production in Australia, another southern hemisphere country's wheat output is also expected to increase
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) this week predicts that the wheat production in Argentina in 2021/22 will reach a record 21.
5 million tons, which is higher than the earlier forecast of 21 million tons, as the harvest yields higher than expected
.
This may help ease concerns about tight wheat supplies
.
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) this week predicts that the wheat production in Argentina in 2021/22 will reach a record 21.
5 million tons, which is higher than the earlier forecast of 21 million tons, as the harvest yields higher than expected
.
This may help ease concerns about tight wheat supplies
.
In Russia, consulting firm SovEcon said that due to national weather favorable for planting, Russia’s wheat production forecast for 2022 has been raised by 600,000 tons, from the previous forecast of 80.
7 million tons to 81.
3 million tons
.
For comparison, the output of dried and cleaned wheat in 2021 was 75.
4 million tons
.
According to the report, crop conditions in all major producing areas are close to or above average
.
Due to abundant rainfall in autumn, crop conditions in the main winter wheat producing areas in southern Russia are significantly better than average
.
The above assessment is based on satellite and meteorological data and surveys of farmers
.
7 million tons to 81.
3 million tons
.
For comparison, the output of dried and cleaned wheat in 2021 was 75.
4 million tons
.
According to the report, crop conditions in all major producing areas are close to or above average
.
Due to abundant rainfall in autumn, crop conditions in the main winter wheat producing areas in southern Russia are significantly better than average
.
The above assessment is based on satellite and meteorological data and surveys of farmers
.
