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Global wheat market: Iran may need to import large quantities of wheat

 Last Update: 2021-10-19
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on October 17: In the week ending October 15, 2021, the global wheat market prices have risen and fallen
.
Iranian wheat is affected by severe drought and may need to increase imports substantially ; the October supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that global wheat supplies are tight, which supports wheat prices
.
However, planting of winter wheat in the United States is working well, and rainfall helps the early growth of crops, reducing the risk of wheat price premiums
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December soft red winter wheat futures were about the same as a week ago, closing at 734 cents per cat
.
The December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 743.
75 cents per bus, up 6.
25 cents or 0.
8% from a week ago
.
The December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about 968.
75 cents per bus, up 22.
25 cents or 2.
4% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 276 euros/ton, an increase of 7 euros or 2.
6% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$300/ton, down US$6 or 2% from a week ago, FOB prices
.

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
95 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture in the October supply and demand report lowered the US wheat production for the year 2021/22 to 1.
646 billion cats, which was lower than the 1.
697 billion cats predicted in September and also lower than the 1.
828 billion cats of the previous year
.
The wheat export forecast data remains unchanged at 875 million bucks
.
Due to lower production data and unchanged export data, the US wheat ending stocks were adjusted to 580 million cats, lower than last month’s forecast of 615 million cats and 31.
4% lower than the 8.
45 cats in 2020/21
.

　　This month's wheat production forecasts for Argentina, Australia, Russia and Ukraine remain unchanged
.
Due to the dry weather, the forecast for Canadian wheat production was lowered from 23 million tons to 21 million tons
.
The global wheat production in 2021/22 is expected to be 77587 million tons, lower than the 780.
28 million tons predicted last month, but still an increase of 0.
1% over the previous year
.
The ending inventory of 2021/22 was reduced by 6 million tons to 277.
2 million tons, the lowest level since 2016/17
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop report shows that as of October 10, 60% of winter wheat planting in the United States has been planted, compared with 47% a week ago and 66% in the same period last year.
The five-year average progress is 60%
.
The emergence rate of winter wheat was 31%, 19% a week ago, 39% in the same period last year, and the five-year average progress was 35%
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending October 7, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 567,600 tons, an increase of 70% from last week and an increase of 42% from the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US wheat export sales have reached 11.
9756 million tons, a decrease of 20.
4% over the same period last year
.

　　In the Black Sea, Russian wheat export prices rose for the 13th consecutive week in the first week of October, as the ruble strengthened due to limited supplies
.
According to IAKR, as of the week of October 8, the FOB price of Russian 12.
5% protein wheat delivered in the first half of October at the Black Sea port was US$310 per ton, up US$3 from a week ago
.
SovEcon said that the price of wheat in Russia was US$312 per ton, up US$6 from a week ago
.
SovEcon this week cut 2021 Russian wheat production by 100,000 tons to 75.
5 million tons
.

　　In the European Union, farmers have begun to grow wheat, and the sown area will remain stable or slightly increase due to good weather conditions and attractive prices
.
However, the recovery growth of rapeseed sown area is expected to restrict the increase in wheat sown area
.

　　In China, this week the government raised the minimum purchase price for wheat
.
In addition, China's National Grain Trading Center said on Friday that it will auction 1 million tons of national reserve wheat on October 20
.
The last auction of State Reserve wheat was in May
.

　　In the Middle East, Iran may need to import a record 8 million tons of wheat this year, which is much higher than the average import volume of 1 million tons in the past five years
.
This year, Iran suffered its worst drought in 50 years, resulting in a possible drop in wheat production to 10-11 million tons, which is 15 million tons below the average
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this week raised its forecast for Iranian wheat imports in 2021/22 from the previous 2.
5 million tons to 4.
5 million tons, while the International Grains Council expects Iranian wheat imports to reach 2.
4 million tons
.

Wheat prices imported U.
S.
Department of Agriculture U.
S.

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
95 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

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