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Global wheat market: Bumper wheat harvest in the southern hemisphere, wheat prices continue to fall

 Last Update: 2022-01-21
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media, January 9 news: In the week ended January 7, 2022, global wheat market prices fell, extending last week's losses
.
Wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere are expected to hit record highs, helping to alleviate some concerns about tight global wheat supplies
.
Weak U.
S.
wheat export sales and a stronger dollar are also bearish for wheat prices
.
However, declining conditions for the U.
S.
winter wheat crop provided some support
.

March soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were down about 12.
25 cents, or 1.
6%, at 758.
50 cents a bushel on Friday
.
March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around 775 cents a bush, down 26.
5 cents, or 3.
3%, from a week ago
.
March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around 923.
25 cents a bushel, down 58.
75 cents, or 6%, from a week ago
.
March 2022 milling wheat futures on Euronext traded at around €274.
50/tonne, down €4 or 1.
4% from a week earlier
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was $308/ton, down $3 or 1% from a week ago, FOB price
.

South American ball wheat production forecast raised

Faced with pressure from a bumper wheat harvest in the southern hemisphere, the global wheat market continued to decline this week
.
In Argentina, the wheat harvest is coming to an end
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) this week raised its forecast for Argentina's wheat production in 2021/22 to a record 21.
8 million tonnes, up from last week's forecast of 21.
5 million tonnes and up from the previous year of 17 million tons
.

In Australia, the wheat harvest is over
.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) expects Australian wheat production in 2021/22 to reach a record high of 34.
4 million tonnes, 3% above the previous record in 2020/21
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture expects Australian wheat production to reach 35 million to 37 million tonnes in 2021/22, up from the previous year's record of 33.
3 million tonnes
.
However, affected by La Niña, Australia experienced a rare rainfall in a century in November, resulting in a decline in wheat quality
.
Market participants estimate that the share of milling wheat in 2021/22 may fall to 35%-45%, down from 65%-70% in 2020/21
.

　　U.
S.
wheat exports hit another yearly low

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 48,600 tonnes for the week ended December 30, 2021, a new annual low, 76% lower than last week and lower than the four-week average 78%
.

　　Year-to-date U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 583 million bushels (15.
88 million tons), down 182 million bushels, or 23.
8 percent, from the same period last year
.
For comparison, USDA's annual export target of 840 million bushels is 152 million bushes, or 15.
3 percent, less than the previous year's 992 million bushels
.

　　Dry weather on the U.
S.
plains reduces winter wheat crop conditions

　　Winter wheat crop ratings in Kansas and Oklahoma, the largest U.
S.
winter wheat producing regions, fell sharply during December 2021, USDA data showed
.
Kansas, the top winter wheat producing state, had 33 percent of its winter wheat good to good as of Jan.
2, down from 62 percent at the end of November and down from 51 percent on Dec.
12
.
In Oklahoma, the second-largest wheat producing state, 20 percent was good to good on Jan.
2, down from 48 percent at the end of November
.
In addition, Nebraska and Colorado's winter wheat ratings were downgraded
.
The U.
S.
Drought Monitor reports that nearly half of Kansas and 90 percent of Oklahoma are in moderate drought
.
The 6- to 10-day outlook (January 10-15) released by the U.
S.
Climate Prediction Center CPC shows below-normal precipitation in most of the contiguous 48 states and above-normal temperatures in the U.
S.
Great Plains
.

　　Focus for the week ahead

　　At 12:00 CST on Wednesday (1:00 a.
m.
Beijing time on Thursday), the USDA will release its first forecast data for 2022 winter wheat plantings, and on the same day it will release U.
S.
wheat inventories for December 1, U.
S.
and global 2021/2021/ 22 wheat ending stocks data
.
Industry sources expect U.
S.
winter wheat acres to rise to 34.
2 million acres in 2022, up from 33.
6 million last year
.
U.
S.
and global wheat ending stocks are also likely to rise
.

Wheat Prices Australia US Exports

　　South American ball wheat production forecast raised

　　U.
S.
wheat exports hit another yearly low

　　Dry weather on the U.
S.
plains reduces winter wheat crop conditions

　　Focus for the week ahead

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