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Wheat Prices Cereals Exported to Canada
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), December soft red winter wheat futures settled at around $8.
11 a bushel on Friday, up 0.
7% from a week ago
.
December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $8.
7775 a bushel, down 0.
5 percent from a week ago
.
December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $8.
9 a bushel, down 2.
1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2022 futures settled at around €320/t, up 0.
2% from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot offers are at $400/ton, down 2% from a week ago
.
The ICE U.
S.
Dollar Index closed at 109.
51 on Friday, up 0.
7% from a week earlier
.
11 a bushel on Friday, up 0.
7% from a week ago
.
December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $8.
7775 a bushel, down 0.
5 percent from a week ago
.
December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $8.
9 a bushel, down 2.
1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2022 futures settled at around €320/t, up 0.
2% from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot offers are at $400/ton, down 2% from a week ago
.
The ICE U.
S.
Dollar Index closed at 109.
51 on Friday, up 0.
7% from a week earlier
.
Wheat prices retreat as global wheat production forecast improves
Global food prices fell for a fifth straight month in August to 138 points, down 1.
9% month-on-month, but still 7.
9% higher than a year earlier, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday
.
The August Cereal Price Index fell 1.
4 percent from July, mainly due to a 5.
1 percent decline in international wheat prices, reflecting improved prospects for wheat production in North America and Russia, as well as Ukraine's resumption of grain exports from Black Sea ports
.
9% month-on-month, but still 7.
9% higher than a year earlier, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday
.
The August Cereal Price Index fell 1.
4 percent from July, mainly due to a 5.
1 percent decline in international wheat prices, reflecting improved prospects for wheat production in North America and Russia, as well as Ukraine's resumption of grain exports from Black Sea ports
.
The FAO this month raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2022 by 6.
7 million tonnes to 777 million tonnes, just shy of 2021 levels
.
This month's increase in wheat production is largely due to favorable weather conditions in Canada and the United States, boosting yield potential and reinforcing expectations for a production recovery in 2022, while Russian wheat production is likely to reach an all-time high as continued favorable weather conditions raise expectations for spring wheat production
.
Recently released official data also indicated that China's wheat production exceeded earlier expectations
.
Conversely, the persistent lack of rain in most parts of the EU has adversely affected wheat, so FAO has slightly lowered its forecast for EU wheat production
.
7 million tonnes to 777 million tonnes, just shy of 2021 levels
.
This month's increase in wheat production is largely due to favorable weather conditions in Canada and the United States, boosting yield potential and reinforcing expectations for a production recovery in 2022, while Russian wheat production is likely to reach an all-time high as continued favorable weather conditions raise expectations for spring wheat production
.
Recently released official data also indicated that China's wheat production exceeded earlier expectations
.
Conversely, the persistent lack of rain in most parts of the EU has adversely affected wheat, so FAO has slightly lowered its forecast for EU wheat production
.
Canadian wheat production beats expectations
According to a production report released by Statistics Canada on August 29, all wheat production in Canada in 2022/23 is expected to increase by 55.
1% year-on-year to 34.
6 million tonnes, higher than the industry forecast of 34.
0 million tonnes, according to production models based on satellite imagery and agro-climatic data.
10,000 tons, the second-highest yield in nine years, mainly due to a 41.
6 percent increase in average yields to 51.
1 bushels per acre
.
Harvested area increased 9.
4% year over year to 24.
9 million acres
.
Spring wheat production will increase by 57.
3% year-on-year to 25.
6 million tons, while durum wheat production will increase by 113.
0% year-on-year to 6.
5 million tons
.
1% year-on-year to 34.
6 million tonnes, higher than the industry forecast of 34.
0 million tonnes, according to production models based on satellite imagery and agro-climatic data.
10,000 tons, the second-highest yield in nine years, mainly due to a 41.
6 percent increase in average yields to 51.
1 bushels per acre
.
Harvested area increased 9.
4% year over year to 24.
9 million acres
.
Spring wheat production will increase by 57.
3% year-on-year to 25.
6 million tons, while durum wheat production will increase by 113.
0% year-on-year to 6.
5 million tons
.
Russia's wheat supplies are plentiful, but exports are slower than expected
The Russian wheat harvest is now nearing completion
.
Consultancy SovEcon raised Russia's 2022/23 wheat output to a record 94.
7 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 90.
9 million tonnes, and raised its forecast for 2022/23 (July-June) wheat exports by 20% 10,000 tons, reaching 43.
1 million tons
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, Russia should be able to export 50 million tons of wheat this year
.
However, the strong ruble exchange rate and export tariffs have affected the scale of exports
.
.
Consultancy SovEcon raised Russia's 2022/23 wheat output to a record 94.
7 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 90.
9 million tonnes, and raised its forecast for 2022/23 (July-June) wheat exports by 20% 10,000 tons, reaching 43.
1 million tons
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, Russia should be able to export 50 million tons of wheat this year
.
However, the strong ruble exchange rate and export tariffs have affected the scale of exports
.
SovEcon said that in the first two months of the year, July and August, Russian wheat exports fell by 27% year-on-year, the lowest level for the same period since 2017/18
.
However, the pace of Russian wheat exports is expected to pick up in the coming weeks as prices continue to fall, making them more attractive to buyers
.
Consultancy IKAR expects Russian wheat exports to be around 4 million tonnes in September, up from 3.
6 to 3.
7 million tonnes in August
.
SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports in September at 4.
0-4.
5 million tonnes, but still down from 4.
7 million tonnes in the same period last year due to competition from Europe and Ukraine this year, a strong ruble, higher export taxes and Western sanctions on Moscow Cause logistics and payment problems
.
The SovEcon report said that if domestic wheat prices in Russia continue to fall, global prices rise and competition from European supplies eases, Russian wheat exports could reach the upper end of the estimated range
.
.
However, the pace of Russian wheat exports is expected to pick up in the coming weeks as prices continue to fall, making them more attractive to buyers
.
Consultancy IKAR expects Russian wheat exports to be around 4 million tonnes in September, up from 3.
6 to 3.
7 million tonnes in August
.
SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports in September at 4.
0-4.
5 million tonnes, but still down from 4.
7 million tonnes in the same period last year due to competition from Europe and Ukraine this year, a strong ruble, higher export taxes and Western sanctions on Moscow Cause logistics and payment problems
.
The SovEcon report said that if domestic wheat prices in Russia continue to fall, global prices rise and competition from European supplies eases, Russian wheat exports could reach the upper end of the estimated range
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that the U.
S.
spring wheat harvest was 50 percent complete as of Aug.
28, compared with 33 percent a week earlier, 86 percent a year earlier, and a five-year average of 71 percent
.
Spring wheat was 68 percent good to good, 64 percent last week, and 11 percent last year
.
With the completion of the winter wheat harvest and more than half of the spring wheat harvest, the market supply has increased, putting pressure on wheat prices
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that the U.
S.
spring wheat harvest was 50 percent complete as of Aug.
28, compared with 33 percent a week earlier, 86 percent a year earlier, and a five-year average of 71 percent
.
Spring wheat was 68 percent good to good, 64 percent last week, and 11 percent last year
.
With the completion of the winter wheat harvest and more than half of the spring wheat harvest, the market supply has increased, putting pressure on wheat prices
.
Argentine wheat damaged by recent frost, rains in the first half of September could benefit crops
Frost in parts of Argentina in the last week of August caused crop damage, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday
.
However, widespread moderate to light rains may occur in the first half of September, which may help the wheat crop recover and stabilize crop conditions in major producing areas
.
In northern Argentina, the continued lack of rainfall combined with rising temperatures has left about 66 percent of the wheat crop in fair or poor condition
.
.
However, widespread moderate to light rains may occur in the first half of September, which may help the wheat crop recover and stabilize crop conditions in major producing areas
.
In northern Argentina, the continued lack of rainfall combined with rising temperatures has left about 66 percent of the wheat crop in fair or poor condition
.
International wheat buying interest remains active
Buying interest in the international market remained active this week, with Bangladeshi government officials saying last Sunday that Bangladesh would import 500,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia at a CNF price of $430 a tonne in an effort to secure domestic supplies
.
Major South Korean feed mill group MFG bought about 63,000 tonnes of feed wheat in a private transaction on Wednesday, which is expected to come from Australia
.
The purchase price is estimated at $357.
50 per ton, including surcharges for unloading at additional ports
.
.
Major South Korean feed mill group MFG bought about 63,000 tonnes of feed wheat in a private transaction on Wednesday, which is expected to come from Australia
.
The purchase price is estimated at $357.
50 per ton, including surcharges for unloading at additional ports
.
Algeria's National Grain Agency (OAIC) bought a batch of milling wheat, possibly from Russia, through an international tender that ended on Tuesday, at around $364-365 a tonne, CNF
.
Russian wheat offers are around $10-15 per tonne cheaper than EU wheat
.
.
Russian wheat offers are around $10-15 per tonne cheaper than EU wheat
.
