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Global wheat market: Argentina and Russia will restrict wheat exports

 Last Update: 2021-12-25
 Source: Internet
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Foreign media news on December 19: In the week ending December 17, 2021, the global wheat market prices have been mixed
.
The introduction of export restrictions by Russia and Argentina , and the unfavorable weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the United States , help support the increase in the risk of wheat prices; however , the output of new wheat in Australia is expected to hit a record high, and the quality may not be as bad as previously expected.
Help ease the global supply of high-quality wheat
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures fell about 10.
25 cents or 1.
3% from a week ago, to close at 775 cents per cat
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 810 cents per bus, up 0.
6% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 1022.
50 cents per bus, up 0.
75 cents from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period reported approximately 278.
50 euros/ton, a decrease of 5 euros or 1.
8% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is US$318/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 96.
67 points, up 0.
6% from a week ago
.
A rise in the U.
S.
dollar usually weakens the competitiveness of U.
S.
wheat exports
.

　　Argentina limits wheat exports to 12.
5 million tons

　　Argentina, a major wheat exporter in the southern hemisphere, announced on Friday that it would restrict wheat and corn exports to curb domestic food inflation
.
Argentina's domestic inflation rate is as high as 51%
.
According to a resolution issued by the Argentine government on Friday, the government will first determine how much grain is needed in the country, and then will take measures to restrict exports
.
Argentine Minister of Industry Julian Domingos stated that Argentina will be able to export 12.
5 million tons of wheat
.
In contrast, the US Department of Agriculture currently expects Argentina to export 13.
5 million tons of wheat in 2021/22, up from 11.
4 million tons in the previous year
.

　　At present, two-thirds of the wheat harvest in Argentina in the 2021/22 season has been completed
.

　　The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) expects Argentine wheat production in 2021/22 to reach a record 21 million tons, much higher than the 17 million tons in the previous year
.

　　Russia’s announced wheat export quotas are lower than previously expected

　　The Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Friday that Russia has set a target of 8 million tons of wheat exports in the first half of 2022
.
This is 1 million tons lower than the market's earlier rumored quota
.
Some analysts believe that export quotas are basically in line with export potential and may not have a significant impact on the wheat market
.
So far in the 2021/22 year, Russia’s wheat exports have decreased by nearly 37.
5% year-on-year due to reduced wheat production and increasing wheat export tariffs
.

　　U.
S.
winter wheat crops are threatened by high winds, droughts and high temperatures

　　The crops in major winter wheat producing regions of the United States are facing the threat of dry and hot weather, and this comes at a time when the global supply of milling wheat is tight
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that the global wheat ending stocks for the 2021/22 season will hit a five-year low
.

　　In Kansas, the main wheat-producing region in the United States, the dry soil and lack of snow cover make winter wheat crops more susceptible to severe winters
.
As of December 12, the excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Kansas is 51%, the normal rate is 35%, and the poor to poor rate is 14%
.
At present, only 37% of the state has sufficient surface soil moisture, 39% is short, and 24% is very short
.
Kansas is the number one hard red winter wheat growing area in the United States, which is also the most productive wheat variety in the United States
.
The seeds are planted in September and October each year.
After the overwintering period, spring returns to green and harvests in June and July each year
.

　　In some producing areas, including Oklahoma, the roots of winter wheat crops are not well developed and crops are growing poorly
.
Mark Hodges of the Plains Grain Company of the United States said that the wheat plants do not grow well and cannot cope with severe weather
.

　　On December 15th, a storm occurred in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States, bringing hurricane-level winds to Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
The strong winds brought large areas of dust and caused Part of the farm infrastructure was damaged.
At present, farmers in the central region of the United States are still continuing to assess the impact of the strong wind on the market on Wednesday
.

　　On December 17 (Friday), the US Department of Agriculture's weather report showed that there were abnormally high temperatures in Oklahoma and Texas, with the highest temperature reaching 16 to 27 degrees Celsius that day
.
In contrast, there was light snow in parts of the northern plain on Friday, with temperatures of minus 12 degrees
.

　　Australian wheat quality may not be as bad as feared

　　As Australia’s wheat harvest season encounters heavy rainfall, which is unprecedented in a century, there is concern that the quality of wheat will be impaired and the proportion of high-protein wheat will decline
.
But there were reports this week that Australian farmers found that the quality of wheat was not as bad as previously feared
.
Australia's number one grain producing region-the Western Australia Grain Industry Association said on Friday that this year's grain output in Western Australia is expected to hit a record high, and the quality problems caused by the weather may not be serious
.
As harvesting progressed to the south, yields continued to exceed expectations
.
Only those wheat that suffered excessive rainfall at the beginning of the harvest has deteriorated in quality, which has little impact on the overall situation
.

　　The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources Economics (ABARES) predicts that this year's Australian wheat production will reach a record 34.
4 million tons, an increase of 3% over the previous year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently predicts that Australia’s wheat production in 2021/22 will reach 34 million tons, which is 2.
5 million tons higher than the November forecast
.

　　Strong U.
S.
wheat export sales

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending December 9, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 650,600 tons, setting a new annual high, which was significantly higher than last week and the four-week average, and also exceeded the analysis.
Teacher’s expectations
.
The total sales of US wheat exports so far this year are 15.
21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.
6%
.

　　Importing countries are still purchasing in large quantities

　　The Iranian Government Trading Company (GTC) bought approximately 500,000 tons of milled wheat through an international tender that ended on Wednesday.
The origin may include Russia, Germany, and the Baltic region
.
This year, Iran suffered its worst drought in 50 years, resulting in a reduction in wheat production and a surge in import demand
.
In the December Global Agricultural Production Report, the US Department of Agriculture lowered Iran’s wheat production in 2021/22 to 12 million tons, a decrease of 20% from the previous year and 11% lower than last month’s forecast
.

　　Iran said last month that since the start of the new year on April 20, Iran has imported 4 million tons of wheat
.

　　，（CBOT）310.
251.
3%，775/
。（KCBT）3810/，0.
6%
。（MGEX）31022.
50/，0.
75
。Euronext20223278.
50/，51.
8%
。318/，，FOB
。

　　，96.
67，0.
6%
。，
。

　　1250

　　，
。51%
。，，
。·，1250
。，2021/221350，1140
。

　　2021/22
。

　　（BAGE）2021/222100，1700
。

　　，2022800
。100
。，，
。2021/22，37.
5%，，
。

　　，
。2021/22
。

　　，，，
。1212，51%，35%，14%
。37%，39%，24%
。，
。910，，，67
。

　　，，
。·，，
。

　　1215，、、、，，，
。

　　1217（），，，1627
。，，12
。

　　，，
。，
。－－，，
。，
。，
。

　　（ABARES）3440，3%
。2021/223400，11250
。

　　，2021129，2021/22650,600，，，
。1521，22.
6%
。

　　Iran said last month that since the start of the new year on April 20, Iran has imported 4 million tons of wheat
.

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