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Among them, Chicago wheat futures plummeted by more than 5%.
Due to the holiday of traders before the arrival of the new year, spot transactions were quiet, and the global wheat market Lack of new bullish news
.
At the same time, a large number of Southern Hemisphere wheat supply on the market, the northern hemisphere is to reduce the export supply pressure provider
.
However , the dry weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the United States and the active purchase of wheat importing countries in the world will support wheat prices .
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures fell 44 cents from a week ago to close at 770.
75 cents per bushel
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 801.
50 cents per bushel, down 60 cents or 7% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 982 cents per bushel, down 50.
5 cents or 4.
9% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period reported about 278.
50 euros/ton, down 11.
75 euros or 4% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$311/ton, down US$7 or 2.
2% from a week ago, FOB prices
.
75 cents per bushel
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 801.
50 cents per bushel, down 60 cents or 7% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 982 cents per bushel, down 50.
5 cents or 4.
9% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period reported about 278.
50 euros/ton, down 11.
75 euros or 4% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$311/ton, down US$7 or 2.
2% from a week ago, FOB prices
.
In 2021, global wheat prices will rise across the board, with spring wheat playing a leading role, mainly due to the hot and dry weather in the spring wheat producing areas of the United States and Canada leading to a reduction in high-quality wheat production.
Russia has increased export tariffs and implemented export quotas, resulting in tight export supplies; global food inflation The intensification has also prompted major importing countries to frequently hold wheat import tenders, pushing American wheat to a nine-year high, and European wheat prices also hitting record highs
.
However, the high yields of wheat in Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere helped to ease market supply pressures, causing wheat prices to fall from their mid-year peak
.
Russia has increased export tariffs and implemented export quotas, resulting in tight export supplies; global food inflation The intensification has also prompted major importing countries to frequently hold wheat import tenders, pushing American wheat to a nine-year high, and European wheat prices also hitting record highs
.
However, the high yields of wheat in Australia and Argentina in the southern hemisphere helped to ease market supply pressures, causing wheat prices to fall from their mid-year peak
.
Argentine wheat production may increase
Following last week’s increase of 500,000 tons of wheat production forecasts in Argentina for 2021/22 to a record 21.
5 million tons, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) said this week that if the main producing areas are Wheat yields in the southern region of Buenos Aires province continue to be high, so BAGE may once again increase the wheat production in Argentina in 2021/22
.
The exchange said that as the wheat harvest progressed, wheat yields in southern Buenos Aires increased
.
If this trend continues until the end of the wheat harvest, production estimates may be further revised upwards
.
5 million tons, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) said this week that if the main producing areas are Wheat yields in the southern region of Buenos Aires province continue to be high, so BAGE may once again increase the wheat production in Argentina in 2021/22
.
The exchange said that as the wheat harvest progressed, wheat yields in southern Buenos Aires increased
.
If this trend continues until the end of the wheat harvest, production estimates may be further revised upwards
.
Bad weather in central Ukraine
APK-Inform said that in the central region, which accounts for one-third of the wheat sown area in Ukraine, winter wheat crops are affected by severe weather, but most of the crops are in satisfactory condition
.
This year Ukrainian farmers were unable to complete the planting of winter wheat as planned because of severe drought in the main producing areas
.
The winter wheat planting area is 6.
2 million hectares, equivalent to 94% of the planned planting area
.
In recent years, farmers in many regions of Ukraine have planted winter crops in dry soil, hoping that sufficient precipitation and mild temperature in winter will help crop growth
.
.
This year Ukrainian farmers were unable to complete the planting of winter wheat as planned because of severe drought in the main producing areas
.
The winter wheat planting area is 6.
2 million hectares, equivalent to 94% of the planned planting area
.
In recent years, farmers in many regions of Ukraine have planted winter crops in dry soil, hoping that sufficient precipitation and mild temperature in winter will help crop growth
.
Outlook for 2022: New wheat production prospects in the northern hemisphere determine long-term trends
Although the market is concerned about the record impact of southern hemisphere wheat such as Australia and Argentina in the short term, analysts from Chicago Agricultural Resources Corporation pointed out that the factors affecting the long-term trend continue to be concentrated on the wheat inventory/use ratio of exporting countries.
The annual export target of 36 million tons predicted by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will be achieved
.
The annual export target of 36 million tons predicted by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will be achieved
.
The stock/usage ratio of exporting countries in 2022/23 will be further tightened, unless all northern hemisphere exporting countries will harvest their wheat production during July/August next year to reach the highest level in history
.
Following the drop of 10 million tons of wheat stocks in exporting countries this year, global wheat consumption and trade volume in 2022/23 will increase by another 5 to 7 million tons, which means that new crop production needs to increase by 15 million tons
.
Considering that winter wheat planting in Russia has decreased, and droughts continue to spread across the United States, this increase in production is unlikely to be achieved
.
In the American plains, the major wheat regions of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Western Kansas, and Montana are now experiencing extreme drought
.
.
Following the drop of 10 million tons of wheat stocks in exporting countries this year, global wheat consumption and trade volume in 2022/23 will increase by another 5 to 7 million tons, which means that new crop production needs to increase by 15 million tons
.
Considering that winter wheat planting in Russia has decreased, and droughts continue to spread across the United States, this increase in production is unlikely to be achieved
.
In the American plains, the major wheat regions of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Western Kansas, and Montana are now experiencing extreme drought
.
From the monthly chart, Chicago wheat still shows a long-term bullish trend, but next year's northern hemisphere wheat supply will be the main variable, which means that by the middle of 2022, the wheat market will experience extreme volatility
.
.
