Global solar demand is expected to reach 112 GW in 2019

According to data analyzed by PV Info Link, the decision at the end of May to control PV subsidies in China means that new PV installed capacity will decline globally this year, with new PV installations expected to be around 88 GW
for the whole of 2018.
At the same time, the Chinese government's policy changes have led to a decline in spot market prices along the PV value chain by about 30%.

For 2019, however, analysts expect demand to increase significantly, with global solar demand reaching 112 GW
.

The main reason for this is that China's solar targets have been upgraded to 2020 and the Indian and US markets have begun to grow rapidly
.
In addition, PV Info Link expects to increase installed capacity by more than
1 GW in 16 countries around the world next year.
In Europe, the countries concerned will be Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Ukraine
.

China's share of global PV installed capacity, which accounted for more than
half of the global market last year, is gradually declining.
PV Info Link expects the world's largest solar market to account for 39% of global capacity in China this year and 38%
next year.
EU member states' share of the global solar module market is expected to increase from 11% to 12%, while European capacity is expected to increase from 9.
5 GW to 13.
5 GW
.

PV Info Link also expects an increase in mergers between manufacturers, a rapid expansion of the world's leading polysilicon manufacturers, especially in western China, and a gradual exit from the market
for many small businesses due to the ability of large manufacturers to reduce costs.
According to PV Info Link, this development will also adversely
affect leading overseas manufacturers.

Many smaller wafer manufacturers may also gradually exit the market, and consolidation in single-wafer markets will follow a similar pattern
.
For multi-Si wafer suppliers, however, analysts believe the price difference is smaller, meaning consolidation will slow and many of these manufacturers could return to the market
next year when demand picks up again.
For battery makers, analysts see clear advantages for large players, but producers who reduce costs may be marginalized
.

With the help of China's quality-focused frontrunner program, the production and efficiency of single PERC products have been further improved, and PV Info Link predicts that this type of product will dominate this year, and the market share of single PERC will increase from 28% to 46%.

For the first half of 2019, analysts expect weak demand, mainly for three reasons: first, seasonal factors, such as the Chinese Lunar New Year, and second, only a small percentage of the projects in the Top Runner program will be completed
in the first half of the year.
The third reason is that countries with typically higher demand in the first quarter, such as India, Japan and Australia, are likely to see less growth than usual
.
As a result, analysts predict further price cuts in the middle of next year, with prices at their lowest
in April.

In contrast, a strong pick-up is expected in the second half of next year, which could lead to regional supply bottlenecks
.
Demand is expected to reach at least 32 GW in the third and fourth quarters, with a single product likely to account for 60%
of the market.
This can also lead to bottlenecks
in the supply of polysilicon and monocrystalline wafers.
Overall, according to PV Info Link, the solar industry will return to a higher boom period
.