Global primary aluminum oversupply Shanghai aluminum shock is weak

In the external market, today's Lun aluminum trend is weak, LME three-month aluminum Beijing time at 15:00 at 1513.
5 US dollars / ton, down 1.
5 US dollars, or 0.
10%
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 13450-13490 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 13560-13620 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan; Hua reported 13550-13570 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan
.
The enthusiasm for shipment is high, the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods is general, the downstream procurement is on demand, and the transaction is acceptable
.

Industry news, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) monthly report shows that the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 709,000 tons from January to March 2020, and 761,000 tons in 2019
.
Global primary aluminum production fell to 5.
255 million mt in April, compared with 5.
464 million mt
in March, according to the International Aluminium Association (IAI).

On the supply side: profit repair and production reduction slowed down the resumption of production; Cost side: Alumina rebound thermal coal is weak, profit has improved
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot premium weakened, while the LME was heavily discounted; In terms of stocks: LME stocks rose continuously to 1.
42 million tons, down 36,600 tons to 352,300 tons in the previous period, and social reserves fell 43,000 tons to 1.
037 million tons
.

Recently, aluminum prices have shown high volatility, the center of gravity has slightly declined, of which the pattern of internal strength and external weakness continues, and the profit window of aluminum ingot imports has opened historically, putting pressure on domestic continued bullish expectations
.

At present, due to the promotion of real estate and infrastructure rush to promote downstream consumption, but with the price rebound, the downstream willingness to continue to stock up declined, and the replacement of scrap aluminum decreased, and the supply side was also affected by the recovery of profits, and the reduction of production disappeared and resumed production began to gradually advance, which can also be confirmed by the slowdown in inventory decline
.
At present, the spot side support is still there, but it has begun to weaken, the demand margin has slowed down, the import arbitrage window has opened, the aluminum price continues to have greater upward pressure, and the operation can be held cautiously
.