Global oilseeds market: the US Gulf exports are still slow, China buys Brazilian soybeans

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 2.
5 cents, or 0.
2%, to close at 1284 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$13.
585 per cat (US$499.
2 per ton), an increase of 18 cents or 1.
34% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at 600.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 30 euros or 5.
26% from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed period rose about 20 Canadian dollars or 2.
34% from a week ago, to close at 873.
70 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$546 (including 33% export tax) ), down 1 US dollar or 0.
18% from a week ago
.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,956 yuan/ton in November, up 83 or 1.
41% from a week ago
.

 

　　Because more than two weeks after Hurricane Ida hit, the United States continued to have logistics problems, and barge freight rates for grains in the Midwest rose sharply on Thursday
.
Hurricane Ida destroyed power grids in some parts of Louisiana, causing damage to some of the nearly a dozen grain terminals along the Mississippi River from Baton Rouge to the Gulf of Mexico, and this area is the busiest grain in the United States.
Export center
.
In the past week, Cargill reopened its grain export terminal in Westerville, Louisiana.
Louis Dreyfus and ADM have also loaded export goods for several days, but the pace of export is still slow
.
The media reported that at the beginning of the week, Chinese buyers ordered four to six bulk cargoes of Brazilian soybeans, with shipping schedules in October and November, reflecting buyers' concerns that the U.
S.
Gulf export terminal might continue to be restricted next month
.
Some people in Chicago’s futures agency said that although the U.
S.
Gulf soybean price is $0.
5 per bushel cheaper than the Brazilian soybean price, it is rumored that China has bought as many as eight ships of Brazilian soybeans with the October shipping schedule, and it has also bought two ships from the US West.
Goods of American soybeans
.
It is rumored that the premium of Brazilian soybeans is very high, 425 cents/pu higher than the November soybean futures price of CBOT
.

 

　　Traders said that the logistics problems in the U.
S.
Gulf have also led to higher freight costs for river barges in the Midwest
.
As corn and soybeans began to be harvested in the Midwestern center, the unloading of barges arriving in the Gulf of Mexico was delayed, causing a shortage of empty barges upstream
.
At the same time, this year's autumn grain harvest in the United States is imminent, and crops in Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois will mature earlier
.
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture, in Minnesota, the fourth largest corn producing country, as of September 12, the corn harvest was 3% complete; the maturity rate was 34%, which was 20% higher than the five-year average progress.
Harvest in southern regions such as Mississippi Even earlier, 75% of corn and 18% of soybeans in the state have been harvested
.
Most soybeans in Iowa and Illinois are usually harvested in October, and exports usually peak in October or November
.
The corn harvest usually starts first, but it usually lasts until November
.
Mike Sternhoek, executive director of the American Soybean Transportation Alliance, said that it is now necessary to ship the crops harvested in the South before the huge crops in the major Midwestern producing areas (such as Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois) are harvested on the market
.

 

　　The monthly crush data released by the National Oilseed Processing Industry Association (NOPA) on Wednesday (September 15) showed that the soybean crush of NOPA member companies in August was higher than market expectations
.
According to NOPA data, the soybean crush in August was 158,843 million bucks, higher than the 155.
1 million bucks in July, and also higher than the industry’s average expectation of 153.
4 million bucks, but lower than the 165.
1 million bucks in August last year
.
Soybeans processed by NOPA member companies account for about 95% of the country's total
.

 

　　Before the report was issued, analysts expected NOPA’s August soybean crush to be 151.
83 million bucks, with a forecast range of 1.
4600 to 156 million bucks, with a median value of 155 billion bucks
.

 

　　Last Friday (September 10), the US Department of Agriculture in its supply and demand report lowered its forecast for the US soybean crush in the 2021/22 year to 2.
18 billion bu, lower than the previous month’s forecast of 2.
205 billion bu; the 2020/21 US soybeans The amount of crush is also reduced by 15 million cats to 2.
140 billion cats
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending September 9, the US’s 2021/22 soybean net sales were 1,264,200 tons, of which 945,200 tons were sold to China, which was higher than the 764,000 tons in the previous week
.

 

　　On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources, Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its quarterly report on commodity outlook, which raised the forecast for Australian rapeseed exports for the period of 2021/22 (November to October of the following year) by 863,000 tons to a record 4.
02 million tons.
Because of the record production
.
Last week, ABARES raised the output of rapeseed in Australia by 830,000 tons, reaching a record 5.
04 million tons, which was higher than the previous year's 4.
524 million tons, and was also much higher than the historical high of 4.
31 million tons five years ago
.
ABARES stated that the European Union's rapeseed stocks are low, while the export of rapeseed from Canada, the main supplier, is expected to decline due to the decline in Canadian rapeseed production due to drought
.
High rapeseed prices will affect the EU's 2020/21 stocks
.
This creates a good opportunity for Australian rapeseed exports
.

 

　　Statistics Canada issued a report on Tuesday that the continued dry weather in western Canada has had more severe impacts on rapeseed and wheat production than estimated a few weeks ago
.
This year, the western part of Canada experienced record high temperatures in the summer and scarce rainfall, resulting in a significant reduction in Canadian crop yields
.
According to a production model using satellite imagery, Statistics Canada predicts that the rapeseed production in 2021/22 will be 12.
8 million tons, which is about 2 million tons lower than the estimated value on August 30 and a decrease of 34.
4% from last year, a record since 2010.
Due to the drought in the prairie, the yield per unit fell to the lowest level in a decade, only 25.
3 bu/acre, a year-on-year decrease of 39.
5%, which offset the 8.
1% increase in harvested area
.
After the report was released, ICE's rapeseed futures rose strongly, up 4.
4%
.

 

　　In addition, in the second week of September, Brazil's soybean meal premium rose sharply, setting its highest level in at least four years, because Argentina's soybean meal export supply continued to be short and demand was strong
.
On September 10, Brazil's soybean meal basis was US$42/short ton higher than the CBOT soybean meal futures price, the highest premium since 2017
.
This means that the direct quotation of soybean meal reached US$422 per short ton, the highest level since mid-August, 11% higher than the same period last year
.
According to industry sources, some Brazilian processing plants have become soybean meal exporters for the first time in history since international buyers encountered problems when purchasing Argentine soybean meal
.
But for most of this year, Brazil's soybean meal exports were lower than the same period last year, because Brazil's soybean export demand is strong this year, the supply for domestic processing has fallen, and farmers' stockpiles of soybeans are waiting to rise
.
According to industry sources, it is very difficult for Brazilian processing plants to purchase soybeans this year, which has affected the domestic supply of soybean oil and soybean meal
.
Due to the tight export supply, Argentina's supply declined, which supported the higher soybean meal price premium
.
The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) predicts that Brazil will export 1.
4 million tons of soybean meal in September, an increase of 8% over the same period last year
.
Brazil’s soybean meal exports in the first eight months of this year were 12.
7 million tons, a decrease of 3% from 13.
06 million tons in the same period last year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that Brazil’s soybean meal exports in 2021/22 will be 17 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the same period last year and also lower than the 17.
5 million tons in 2019/20
.