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The La Niña phenomenon has led to hot and dry weather in some soybean -producing regions in South America, prompting a number of agencies to slash their forecasts for soybean production in Brazil
.
On Friday, March 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were up about 71 cents, or 5.
3%, from a week earlier to settle at 1,410.
25 cents a bushel
.
U.
S.
No.
1 yellow soybeans in the U.
S.
Gulf were quoted at 1,487.
375 cents a bushel, up 44.
625 cents, or 3.
09%, from a week ago
.
The February 2022 rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange closed at about 828 euros/ton, up 74 euros or 9.
8% from a week ago; the March futures closed at about 758.
50 euros/ton
.
The March rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose about 22.
6 Canadian dollars or 2.
2% from a week ago to close at 1,035.
10 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of Argentina's upper river soybeans was US$612 (including 33% export tax), which was higher than It was up 10.
1% from $556 a week ago
.
The settlement price of March soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 5,874 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from a week ago
.
3%, from a week earlier to settle at 1,410.
25 cents a bushel
.
U.
S.
No.
1 yellow soybeans in the U.
S.
Gulf were quoted at 1,487.
375 cents a bushel, up 44.
625 cents, or 3.
09%, from a week ago
.
The February 2022 rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange closed at about 828 euros/ton, up 74 euros or 9.
8% from a week ago; the March futures closed at about 758.
50 euros/ton
.
The March rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose about 22.
6 Canadian dollars or 2.
2% from a week ago to close at 1,035.
10 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of Argentina's upper river soybeans was US$612 (including 33% export tax), which was higher than It was up 10.
1% from $556 a week ago
.
The settlement price of March soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 5,874 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 95.
74, up 0.
1% from a week earlier
.
S.
dollar index closed at 95.
74, up 0.
1% from a week earlier
.
Brazil soybean output sharply lowered, may not reach new highs
Global oilseed and vegetable oil markets rose strongly in the first week of 2022, mainly due to the damage to the yield potential of soybeans and other crops due to poor weather in South America, prompting a number of institutions to lower their outlook for soybean production in Brazil, because the southern Brazilian state of Parana and Soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul has suffered irreversible losses
.
Wet and rainy weather in Brazil's central-western and northeastern regions has also begun to raise concerns about a slowdown in the soybean harvest
.
.
Wet and rainy weather in Brazil's central-western and northeastern regions has also begun to raise concerns about a slowdown in the soybean harvest
.
Consulting firm AgRural lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2021/22 by 11.
3 million tonnes to 133.
4 million tonnes, down from the previous year's all-time high of 137.
3 million tonnes and 12 million tonnes below its early November forecast of 145.
4 million tonnes
.
Agricultural Resources Brazil lowered its soybean production in Brazil by 10 million tons to 131 million tons
.
StoneX lowered Brazil's soybean output by 11 million tons to 134 million tons
.
Commodity risk manager HEDGEpoint lowered its soybean production figure for Brazil by nearly 6 million tons to 138.
5 million
.
3 million tonnes to 133.
4 million tonnes, down from the previous year's all-time high of 137.
3 million tonnes and 12 million tonnes below its early November forecast of 145.
4 million tonnes
.
Agricultural Resources Brazil lowered its soybean production in Brazil by 10 million tons to 131 million tons
.
StoneX lowered Brazil's soybean output by 11 million tons to 134 million tons
.
Commodity risk manager HEDGEpoint lowered its soybean production figure for Brazil by nearly 6 million tons to 138.
5 million
.
Most crops in other South American soybean-producing countries also face weather threats
Other major soybean-producing countries in South America are also facing weather problems
.
Analyst firm IHS Markit lowered world soybean production by 9 million tons in 2022, with Argentina's soybean output lowered by 4 million tons
.
Some analysts also expect South American soybean production forecasts may be lowered by 20 million tons
.
.
Analyst firm IHS Markit lowered world soybean production by 9 million tons in 2022, with Argentina's soybean output lowered by 4 million tons
.
Some analysts also expect South American soybean production forecasts may be lowered by 20 million tons
.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) said on Thursday that a heat wave will hit most of the agricultural region in the coming days, and little or no rain means that growing conditions have been unfavourable over the past few weeks.
Corn and soybeans will face more moisture shortage pressure
.
The exchange said it may have to cut production figures due to dry weather
.
The exchange currently estimates soybean production at a record 57 million tonnes
.
South American crop expert Dr.
Michael Cordogne this week lowered his forecast for Argentina's soybean production in 2021/22 to 45 million from 48 million, as dry weather puts pressure on the soybean crop
.
Corn and soybeans will face more moisture shortage pressure
.
The exchange said it may have to cut production figures due to dry weather
.
The exchange currently estimates soybean production at a record 57 million tonnes
.
South American crop expert Dr.
Michael Cordogne this week lowered his forecast for Argentina's soybean production in 2021/22 to 45 million from 48 million, as dry weather puts pressure on the soybean crop
.
In Paraguay, the world's fourth-largest soybean exporter, recent severe dry weather has affected agricultural production, forcing the government on Wednesday to announce new support measures for the agricultural sector, including tax cuts and a line of credit to refinance debt
.
Paraguay is expected to harvest about 10 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021/22, but some producers warned this week that production figures could be lower than expected due to a lack of rain
.
The soybean harvest is now less than a month away
.
.
Paraguay is expected to harvest about 10 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021/22, but some producers warned this week that production figures could be lower than expected due to a lack of rain
.
The soybean harvest is now less than a month away
.
In Uruguay, at the end of last month the country's agriculture minister, Fernando Matos, said there was a "significant" risk of damage to Uruguay's growing soybean crop if it did not rain in the next few days
.
.
U.
S.
soybean export sales hit annual low for third straight week
S.
soybean export sales hit annual low for third straight week
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that net sales of soybeans in the U.
S.
for 2021/22 were 380,000 tons in the week ended Dec.
30, 2021, marking the third straight week of new annual low sales and 27% lower than last week.
%, 63% below the four-week average
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently forecasts U.
S.
soybean exports at 2.
050 billion bushels, down 9.
5% from a year earlier
.
In the first four months of the year, U.
S.
soybean export sales totaled 1.
532 billion bushels (41.
7 million tonnes), down 473 million bushels, or 23.
6%, from 2.
005 billion bushes a year earlier
.
During the same period, total U.
S.
soybean sales to China (shipped and unloaded) were 874 million bushels (23.
78 million tons), a decrease of 27.
3% year-on-year
.
S.
Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that net sales of soybeans in the U.
S.
for 2021/22 were 380,000 tons in the week ended Dec.
30, 2021, marking the third straight week of new annual low sales and 27% lower than last week.
%, 63% below the four-week average
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently forecasts U.
S.
soybean exports at 2.
050 billion bushels, down 9.
5% from a year earlier
.
In the first four months of the year, U.
S.
soybean export sales totaled 1.
532 billion bushels (41.
7 million tonnes), down 473 million bushels, or 23.
6%, from 2.
005 billion bushes a year earlier
.
During the same period, total U.
S.
soybean sales to China (shipped and unloaded) were 874 million bushels (23.
78 million tons), a decrease of 27.
3% year-on-year
.
Highlights for the week ahead
Oilseeds will continue to be dictated by South American weather forecasts for the week ahead
.
The weather forecast for Argentina is hot and dry for the next 10 days, which may eventually lead to a decline in Argentina's soybean and manufactured product production
.
Argentina is the world's number one exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal
.
As the new year began, index funds began to adjust their positions, increasing their positions in soybeans and soybean meal
.
.
The weather forecast for Argentina is hot and dry for the next 10 days, which may eventually lead to a decline in Argentina's soybean and manufactured product production
.
Argentina is the world's number one exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal
.
As the new year began, index funds began to adjust their positions, increasing their positions in soybeans and soybean meal
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand report at 12:00 CST on Wednesday (1:00 a.
m.
Beijing time on Thursday)
.
The report is likely to raise U.
S.
soybean ending stocks slightly, mainly because of the slow pace of soybean exports, and may lower global soybean ending stocks because of lower expectations for South American soybean production
.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand report at 12:00 CST on Wednesday (1:00 a.
m.
Beijing time on Thursday)
.
The report is likely to raise U.
S.
soybean ending stocks slightly, mainly because of the slow pace of soybean exports, and may lower global soybean ending stocks because of lower expectations for South American soybean production
.
