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However, Chinese buyers have begun to make purchases .
La Niña may damage the yield potential of South American soybeans, and the supply of canola in Canada is tight, which continues to provide bottom support
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell by approximately 25.
25 cents, or 2%, from a week ago, to close at 1217.
75 cents/po
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$12.
9625 per cat (US$476.
3 per ton), down 25.
25 cents or 1.
91% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 672.
50 euros/ton, up 5 euros or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The November rapeseed period of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell by about 11.
4 Canadian dollars or 1.
2% from a week ago to close at 915.
50 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$538 (including 33% export Tax), which is down $4 or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The November soybean futures contract settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,034 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
25 cents, or 2%, from a week ago, to close at 1217.
75 cents/po
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$12.
9625 per cat (US$476.
3 per ton), down 25.
25 cents or 1.
91% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 672.
50 euros/ton, up 5 euros or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The November rapeseed period of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell by about 11.
4 Canadian dollars or 1.
2% from a week ago to close at 915.
50 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$538 (including 33% export Tax), which is down $4 or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The November soybean futures contract settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,034 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
Global inflation triggers expectations of central bank balance sheet reduction
First, briefly review the recent global market dynamics
.
U.
S.
crude oil prices hit a seven-year high, London copper prices are only one step away from historical highs, aluminum and nickel hit new highs in more than ten years, palm oil hit a record high, and cotton hit a 10-year high; Bitcoin returned to more than $60,000.
, The U.
S.
inflation rate is as high as 5.
4%
.
The duration of global inflationary pressures may exceed earlier expectations, and the Fed may begin to reduce bond purchases from the middle of next month
.
.
U.
S.
crude oil prices hit a seven-year high, London copper prices are only one step away from historical highs, aluminum and nickel hit new highs in more than ten years, palm oil hit a record high, and cotton hit a 10-year high; Bitcoin returned to more than $60,000.
, The U.
S.
inflation rate is as high as 5.
4%
.
The duration of global inflationary pressures may exceed earlier expectations, and the Fed may begin to reduce bond purchases from the middle of next month
.
U.
S.
Department of Agriculture increases U.
S.
soybean supply and lowers price expectations
S.
Department of Agriculture increases U.
S.
soybean supply and lowers price expectations
On Tuesday, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture sharply raised US soybean production and inventory expectations in the supply and demand report, which was much higher than market expectations, putting pressure on the oilseed and finished product markets.
After the report was released, Chicago soybeans fell to December 2020.
The lowest level since
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for US soybean production in 2021 to 4.
448 billion bushes, which is 74 million bushels higher than the September forecast, an increase of 5.
5% over the previous year; because the average yield has been raised to 51.
5 bushels per acre, which is higher than the previous year.
51.
0 bu/acre in the year
.
The forecast value of soybean exports remains unchanged at 2.
09 billion bushels
.
The soybean crush has been increased to 2.
19 billion cats, higher than last month’s forecast of 2.
18 billion cats
.
The ending stocks of US soybeans in 2021/22 increased to 320 million cats, much higher than the 185 million cats predicted in September and 25% higher than the 256 million cats of the previous year
.
Due to the increase in supply, the average price of soybean farms in the United States is expected to be US$12.
35 per cat, down 55 cents from last month’s forecast
.
S.
Department of Agriculture sharply raised US soybean production and inventory expectations in the supply and demand report, which was much higher than market expectations, putting pressure on the oilseed and finished product markets.
After the report was released, Chicago soybeans fell to December 2020.
The lowest level since
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for US soybean production in 2021 to 4.
448 billion bushes, which is 74 million bushels higher than the September forecast, an increase of 5.
5% over the previous year; because the average yield has been raised to 51.
5 bushels per acre, which is higher than the previous year.
51.
0 bu/acre in the year
.
The forecast value of soybean exports remains unchanged at 2.
09 billion bushels
.
The soybean crush has been increased to 2.
19 billion cats, higher than last month’s forecast of 2.
18 billion cats
.
The ending stocks of US soybeans in 2021/22 increased to 320 million cats, much higher than the 185 million cats predicted in September and 25% higher than the 256 million cats of the previous year
.
Due to the increase in supply, the average price of soybean farms in the United States is expected to be US$12.
35 per cat, down 55 cents from last month’s forecast
.
In terms of global supply and demand, the production of soybeans in Argentina in 2020/2021 will be reduced by 1 million tons to 51 million tons due to the reduction in harvested area
.
Brazil’s soybean production is expected to remain unchanged at 144 million tons
.
Global soybean production is expected to be 385.
14 million tons, slightly higher than last month’s forecast of 384.
42 million tons and an increase of 5.
4% over the previous year
.
Global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 104.
57 million tons, 5.
7 million tons higher than last month and 5.
5% more than last year
.
.
Brazil’s soybean production is expected to remain unchanged at 144 million tons
.
Global soybean production is expected to be 385.
14 million tons, slightly higher than last month’s forecast of 384.
42 million tons and an increase of 5.
4% over the previous year
.
Global soybean ending stocks are expected to be 104.
57 million tons, 5.
7 million tons higher than last month and 5.
5% more than last year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this month lowered Canadian rapeseed production in 2020/22 by 1 million tons to 13 million tons, a decrease of 34.
4% year-on-year, which was the lowest point in 11 years, but still higher than the 12.
8 million tons estimated by Statistics Canada
.
S.
Department of Agriculture this month lowered Canadian rapeseed production in 2020/22 by 1 million tons to 13 million tons, a decrease of 34.
4% year-on-year, which was the lowest point in 11 years, but still higher than the 12.
8 million tons estimated by Statistics Canada
.
Nearly half of the soybean harvest in the United States has been completed.
New soybeans have been put on the market, and market supply has improved, putting heavy seasonal pressure on the oilseed market
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop report shows that as of October 10, the soybean harvest in the United States was 49% completed, compared with 34% a week ago, and 58% in the same period last year.
The five-year average progress was 40%
.
New soybeans have been put on the market, and market supply has improved, putting heavy seasonal pressure on the oilseed market
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop report shows that as of October 10, the soybean harvest in the United States was 49% completed, compared with 34% a week ago, and 58% in the same period last year.
The five-year average progress was 40%
.
Chinese buyers resume soy purchases
In recent days, China has resumed its purchase of US soybeans, which has aroused great market concern
.
Earlier, people including Thomas Melko, editor-in-chief of German Oil World, predicted that Chinese buyers would resume purchasing U.
S.
soybeans after the National Day holiday (October 1-7).
The one-day report confirmed that Chinese buyers finally entered the market
.
The report shows that US private exporters have newly sold 528,000 tons of soybeans, of which 330,000 tons are sold to China and 198,000 tons are sold to unknown destinations (market participants usually think this is also a Chinese purchase)
.
This is China's first large purchase of US soybeans since September 27
.
It is rumored that Grain Storage is actively buying American soybeans for January and February shipments, at least 10 ships of US soybeans shipped by the Gulf and the United States, and at least 5 ships of Brazilian soybeans shipped in March 2022
.
.
Earlier, people including Thomas Melko, editor-in-chief of German Oil World, predicted that Chinese buyers would resume purchasing U.
S.
soybeans after the National Day holiday (October 1-7).
The one-day report confirmed that Chinese buyers finally entered the market
.
The report shows that US private exporters have newly sold 528,000 tons of soybeans, of which 330,000 tons are sold to China and 198,000 tons are sold to unknown destinations (market participants usually think this is also a Chinese purchase)
.
This is China's first large purchase of US soybeans since September 27
.
It is rumored that Grain Storage is actively buying American soybeans for January and February shipments, at least 10 ships of US soybeans shipped by the Gulf and the United States, and at least 5 ships of Brazilian soybeans shipped in March 2022
.
China's soybean imports slowed down in September
On October 13, China Customs released data on China's soybean imports for September, which was only 6.
88 million tons, a decrease of nearly 30% from 9.
79 million tons in the same period last year and the lowest import volume in the same period since 2014
.
The slowdown in imports is mainly related to the slowdown in demand from the aquaculture industry
.
From January to September this year, China's total soybean imports totaled 73.
97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
7%
.
In view of the current profit margin situation, the market expects that soybean imports in October will still be lower than the same month last year
.
88 million tons, a decrease of nearly 30% from 9.
79 million tons in the same period last year and the lowest import volume in the same period since 2014
.
The slowdown in imports is mainly related to the slowdown in demand from the aquaculture industry
.
From January to September this year, China's total soybean imports totaled 73.
97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
7%
.
In view of the current profit margin situation, the market expects that soybean imports in October will still be lower than the same month last year
.
Although China's crush profits have improved recently, domestic power curtailment continues to impact the crushing industry, and the operating rate of oil plants is low
.
As energy consumption exceeds power generation, regulators allow the market to freely adjust electricity prices and adjust electricity demand through prices, which may have an impact on industrial user demand
.
Rising electricity prices will inevitably have an impact on processing profits and may even offset the recent improvement in squeezing profit margins
.
.
As energy consumption exceeds power generation, regulators allow the market to freely adjust electricity prices and adjust electricity demand through prices, which may have an impact on industrial user demand
.
Rising electricity prices will inevitably have an impact on processing profits and may even offset the recent improvement in squeezing profit margins
.
Logistics costs are rising
In addition to rising electricity costs, logistics costs also have an impact on China's procurement demand
.
In September alone, the freight rate from Santos Port to Qindao rose by more than 7%, from US$65 to US$70.
00 per ton
.
Brazilian analysts explained that almost all of the increase in freight costs has been passed on to the origin, which is reflected in the decline in FOB premiums at Brazilian ports, which will eventually be passed on to producers
.
The profit of the production area will be squeezed along with the seasonal increase in supply
.
It is worth noting that the upward momentum of logistics costs seems to be far from over
.
The rise in coal and natural gas prices has driven up the prices of crude oil products, resulting in high transportation costs
.
Only from mid-August to now, oil prices have risen by more than 30%
.
In addition, China’s increased demand for coal imports often leads to intensified competition with bulk carriers that usually carry soybeans
.
As coal imports increase, there is a shortage of Capesize freighters that usually transport iron ore and coal, which may cause demand to shift to other types of freighters to meet current demand
.
China's coal imports in September increased by 76% year-on-year to a total of 32.
88 million tons, the largest monthly import volume this year
.
On Wednesday, China’s coal prices hit another record high
.
.
In September alone, the freight rate from Santos Port to Qindao rose by more than 7%, from US$65 to US$70.
00 per ton
.
Brazilian analysts explained that almost all of the increase in freight costs has been passed on to the origin, which is reflected in the decline in FOB premiums at Brazilian ports, which will eventually be passed on to producers
.
The profit of the production area will be squeezed along with the seasonal increase in supply
.
It is worth noting that the upward momentum of logistics costs seems to be far from over
.
The rise in coal and natural gas prices has driven up the prices of crude oil products, resulting in high transportation costs
.
Only from mid-August to now, oil prices have risen by more than 30%
.
In addition, China’s increased demand for coal imports often leads to intensified competition with bulk carriers that usually carry soybeans
.
As coal imports increase, there is a shortage of Capesize freighters that usually transport iron ore and coal, which may cause demand to shift to other types of freighters to meet current demand
.
China's coal imports in September increased by 76% year-on-year to a total of 32.
88 million tons, the largest monthly import volume this year
.
On Wednesday, China’s coal prices hit another record high
.
South American soybean planting advances, La Nina weather attracts attention
In South America, farmers have already started planting soybeans in the 2021/22 season
.
The recent favorable rains in Brazil's agricultural production areas have helped advance soybean planting
.
According to the consulting agency Safras & Mercado, as of October 8, the soybean planting progress in Brazil in 2021/22 reached 9.
8%, which is higher than 4% a week ago and 2.
3% in the same period last year, but lags behind the five-year average progress over the same period.
9.
1%
.
La Niña is the main uncertain factor that will determine the size of soybean production in the future
.
There are currently signs that La Niña has appeared
.
The US Government Meteorological Agency stated on October 14 that the La Niña weather is under development, with a probability of 87% from December 2021 to February 2022
.
La Niña weather refers to the gradual cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
It usually occurs every three to five years, but it also occurs for two consecutive years
.
In South America, La Niña usually causes dry weather
.
La Niña last year caused the destruction of Brazilian corn, coffee and sugar cane crops
.
Argentina is also facing drought, and the water level of the Parana River has dropped to its lowest level in 50 years
.
.
The recent favorable rains in Brazil's agricultural production areas have helped advance soybean planting
.
According to the consulting agency Safras & Mercado, as of October 8, the soybean planting progress in Brazil in 2021/22 reached 9.
8%, which is higher than 4% a week ago and 2.
3% in the same period last year, but lags behind the five-year average progress over the same period.
9.
1%
.
La Niña is the main uncertain factor that will determine the size of soybean production in the future
.
There are currently signs that La Niña has appeared
.
The US Government Meteorological Agency stated on October 14 that the La Niña weather is under development, with a probability of 87% from December 2021 to February 2022
.
La Niña weather refers to the gradual cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
It usually occurs every three to five years, but it also occurs for two consecutive years
.
In South America, La Niña usually causes dry weather
.
La Niña last year caused the destruction of Brazilian corn, coffee and sugar cane crops
.
Argentina is also facing drought, and the water level of the Parana River has dropped to its lowest level in 50 years
.
