Global Oilseed Market: Spring planting delays, tight rapeseed supplies, rising prices

 

July 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about $1,7325 a bush on Friday, up 27 cents, or 58%, from a week a.
.

Gulf .
1 spot soybeans were quoted at $17075 a bushel ($684 a tonne), up 45 cents, or 38%, from a week a.
On the Euronext exchange, August rapeseed futures closed at around 8225 euros per ton, down 2% from 75 euros a week a.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the November rapeseed closed at C$1,0720/ton, up C$150 or 7% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Upper River soybeans was US$671 (including 33% export tax), up from a week earlier Up $8 or 2
July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,350 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan or 9% from a week a.

 

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inflation may peak, dollar rally pauses

 

Market expectations for aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have eased amid growing signs of weak.


economic grow.

Several Wall Street investment banks have warned in recent weeks that the likelihood of a.


recession is rising, as is the likelihood of a low-growth, high-inflation environment known as stagflati.

On May 25, the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve lowered its estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter of the United States to 8% from the 4% estimated in the previous week; the minutes of the Fed's May 3-4 policy meeting released on the same day showed that most participants A 50-basis-point rate hike is considered appropriate at the June and July policy meetin.

But with signs of weakness in the economy, many believe the Fed will raise rates sharply ahead of schedule, leaving room for a pause later this year to assess whether tightening is helping to keep inflation in che.

Bank of America strategists said the Fed is likely to pause rate hikes in September, keeping its benchmark overnight rate in a range of 75% to 2%, with inflation likely to have peak.

Judging from the trend of interest rate futures, the market's expectations for the Fed's hawks have also cool.

 

Northern Plains soybean planting is particularly lagging behind

 

The.


Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 22,.


soybean planting was 50% complete, 5% lower than the five-year average, and the second slowest year since 2015, but the current planting progress is still ahe.

at the long-run avera.

High soybean prices have prompted farmers to actively plant crops before and after the rains, and it is estimated that the crop progress report to be released next Tuesday (May 31) may show that soybean planting progress has reached as high as 7
However, it should be pointed out that the planting progress of the northern plains of the United States and the northern Midwest continued to experience serious delays, and three states were particularly lagging behind in the planting progre.

Among them, North Dakota only planted 7% of soybeans, setting a record for the slowest planting in histo.

Down from 72% a year ago and a five-year average of 47%; Minnesota 32%, compared to 96% a year ago and a five-year average of 6
South Dakota 34%, 81% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 4
It should be noted, however, that farmers in these areas still have time to plant soybeans, as the last planting date to apply for soybean crop insurance in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota is June 10, and in Iowa it is June 15 , so now soybean farmers are unlikely to consider applying for failure to sow subsidi.

In its March Planting Intentions report, USDA projected 7 million acres of soybeans in North Dakota, 7 million in South Dakota and 8 million in Minneso.

Crop experts pointed out that farmers in these three states are more likely to plant soybeans because of delayed corn planting than farmers applying for soybean subsidi.

 

The hype in the weather market is beginning to emerge

 

In the past week, the soybean market has been volatile, reflecting the characteristics of the weather mark.

For example, the Chicago soybean benchmark contract rose nearly 3 percent on Thursday, hitting a three-month high of 1737 cents/.

Major and weather agencies forecast that the.


Cold and rainy conditions in the northern plains may be related to delays in planti.

Cold and rainy weather in the eastern corn belt brought nearly all field work to a halt, while the western corn belt returned to dry conditions, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) weather report released Frid.

As far as next week's weather is concerned, a series of weather disturbances in the next five days (Saturday to next Wednesday) will bring precipitation to the north-central Midwest, with a total of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation in Monta.

4 inches possible in the south; 6- to 10-day outlook shows that temperatures are likely to be cooler in the northern and central.


Plains, as well as the northern Midwest, and below-normal precipitation in the Midwest and Great Lakes between June 1 and 5 , but higher-than-normal precipitation in the.


Northwest and the central and southern.


Plai.

 

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soybean export demand is strong, export target may be significantly raised

 

The.


Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that the United States sold only 276,000 tons of old beans and 443,000 tons of new beans in the week ended May 1 So far in 2021/22,.


soybean export sales have totaled 549 million tons, down 3% from a year earli.

For comparison, the USDA forecasts.


soybean exports in 2021/22 at 52 million tons, down 4% from a year earli.

It is worth mentioning that this year's unloaded.


soybean sales reached a record 10 million tons, of which sales to China reached 2 million tons; in addition, the sales volume of new crops also reached a road-breaking 18 million tons, of which sales to Chi.

The sales volume reached 3 million tons, accounting for more than 6
The.


Department of Agriculture currently expects China to import 92 million tons of soybeans in 2021/22, down from 97 million tons in the previous year, and up to 99 million tons in 2022/2.


soybean exports are expected to pick up from mid-to-late July, with some market players estimating that Brazilian soybean export supplies may dry up by the end of July, making.


soybean exports this year 8 million tons higher than current expectations at 64 million to.

 

Canada's new-season canola production rises, but supplies remain extremely tight

 

In its May supply and demand report, Agriculture Canada projected Canada’s canola supply in 2021/22 at 15 million tonnes, down 37% from a year earlier, due to a 49% drop in carryover stocks and a 35% drop in production due to last summer’s droug.

Canadian canola demand remains firm due to strong world oilseed crush and high prices for competing oilseeds, vegetable oils and protein mea.

The disruption of black sea sunflower oil exports and tight world supplies also supported world rapeseed pric.

Canadian domestic canola processing is estimated to fall to 3 million tonnes, down 20% year-on-year; exports are forecast at 2 million tonnes, down 51% year-over-year, as mills outbid exporte.

Major buyers of Canadian canola so far this year include China, Japan, Mexico and the European Uni.

The ending inventory on July 31, 2022 is expected to be 4 million tons, a sharp decrease of 77% year-on-year; the inventory-to-use ratio is 3%, which is lower than 8% in the previous year and 13% lower than the five-year avera.

The AAFC expects Canadian canola prices to average a record $1,100/tonne for the current season, compared with $730/tonne last year, and a five-year average of $556/ton.

 

For 2022/23, Statistics Canada's Planting Intentions Survey shows the area planted with canola for the new season is expected to fall by 7 per cent to 5 million hectares, as farmers switch to lower-risk crops after last summer's droug.

Harvested area is forecast at 4 million hectares; yields are forecast at 14 t/ha, up from 4 t/ha last ye.

Canola production in western Canada will be largely dependent on precipitation, with current weather maps showing above-normal soil moisture in Manitoba, normal in Saskatchewan and below-normal in much of Alber.

Generally speaking, the soil conditions in the northern half of the main rapeseed producing areas of the prairie are relatively humid, and the southern half is relatively d.

Total supply in 2022/23 will increase to 14 million tons, rapeseed use is also expected to recover, and exports will surge by about 71% year-on-year to 8 million tons; domestic crush is expected to increase from 3 million tons last year to 8 million to.

9 million to.

Ending stocks will increase to 500,000 tons, up 100,000 tons year-on-year, but inventory usage will remain at a very tight
The average price of rapeseed in the next year will drop to 1,000 Canadian dollars / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, the second highest in histo.

 

The 2022/23 canola outlook remains sensitive to several key factors, including developments in Ukrai.

The second factor is the expected growth rate of the renewable diesel sector as the world seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels in response to high crude oil prices and climate chan.

The third factor is the expected production of alternative oil crops in the wor.

Other uncertainties include Chinese demand and changes in Indonesia's palm oil export poli.