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Among them, soybean prices in the United States and South America have fallen, but rapeseed prices in Canada and Europe continue to rise .
U.
S.
soybean production may be higher than expected, and the decline in international crude oil and soybean oil prices has put pressure on soybean prices; the supply of rapeseed is extremely tight and continues to support price increases in order to implement demand rationing .
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January 2022 soybean futures closed at approximately 1205.
5 cents per bus, down 3.
5% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 1,263.
375 cents per pu (US$464.
2 per ton), down 3.
6% from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, rapeseed futures in February 2022 will close at approximately 685 Euros/ton, up 1% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed futures of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at about 973.
9 Canadian dollars per ton, up 1.
5% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Shanghe soybeans was US$530 (including 33% export tax), down 2.
57 from a week ago %
.
The January settlement price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,463 yuan/ton, up 4.
1% from a week ago
.
5 cents per bus, down 3.
5% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 1,263.
375 cents per pu (US$464.
2 per ton), down 3.
6% from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, rapeseed futures in February 2022 will close at approximately 685 Euros/ton, up 1% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed futures of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at about 973.
9 Canadian dollars per ton, up 1.
5% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Shanghe soybeans was US$530 (including 33% export tax), down 2.
57 from a week ago %
.
The January settlement price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,463 yuan/ton, up 4.
1% from a week ago
.
U.
S.
dollar appreciation, crude oil and other commodities fell
S.
dollar appreciation, crude oil and other commodities fell
On Friday, the dollar exchange rate rose to 94.
634, the highest value since September 25, 2020, because 10 non-agricultural employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations, which put pressure on commodity prices, including crude oil
.
634, the highest value since September 25, 2020, because 10 non-agricultural employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations, which put pressure on commodity prices, including crude oil
.
The Federal Reserve announced this week that it will begin to reduce monetary stimulus this month, reducing the size of asset purchases of US$120 billion per month by US$15 billion
.
The Fed also insisted on its previous view, saying that inflationary pressures are only temporary and are not in a hurry to raise interest rates
.
TD Securities analysts believe that the conditions for the dollar to rise across the board are already in place
.
If the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet, it will boost the yields of the U.
S.
dollar and Treasury bonds, thereby changing the logic of commodity re-inflation trading triggered by the super-loose monetary policy over the past year or so
.
The US Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Friday, which may help support the commodity market
.
.
The Fed also insisted on its previous view, saying that inflationary pressures are only temporary and are not in a hurry to raise interest rates
.
TD Securities analysts believe that the conditions for the dollar to rise across the board are already in place
.
If the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet, it will boost the yields of the U.
S.
dollar and Treasury bonds, thereby changing the logic of commodity re-inflation trading triggered by the super-loose monetary policy over the past year or so
.
The US Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Friday, which may help support the commodity market
.
79% of soybean planting in the United States is completed, and the weather in the coming week will be good for harvest
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of October 31, the US soybean harvest was 79% completed, 73% a week ago, 86% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 81% in the same period
.
Before the report was issued, analysts expected 81% of the US soybean harvest to be completed
.
Rains in the Midwestern United States last week slowed the soybean harvest
.
However, the weather in the Midwest in the next few days is generally good for harvest
.
On November 5, the National Weather Service predicted that the temperature in most parts of the United States would be higher than normal in the next five days, and the Midwest and the plains of the United States would be dry
.
From 6 to 10 days (November 10 to 14), the national temperature is close to or higher than normal
.
.
Before the report was issued, analysts expected 81% of the US soybean harvest to be completed
.
Rains in the Midwestern United States last week slowed the soybean harvest
.
However, the weather in the Midwest in the next few days is generally good for harvest
.
On November 5, the National Weather Service predicted that the temperature in most parts of the United States would be higher than normal in the next five days, and the Midwest and the plains of the United States would be dry
.
From 6 to 10 days (November 10 to 14), the national temperature is close to or higher than normal
.
Favorable weather in South America so far this year
Despite La Niña’s concerns, so far this year, the weather in South America’s agricultural production areas has facilitated the smooth advancement of soybean planting
.
As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean planting progress has been more than half, much higher than the same period last year and the five-year average for the same period
.
The Brazilian government predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 141 million tons, an increase of 2.
5% year-on-year, as the planted area will increase to 40 million hectares (98.
8 million acres)
.
.
As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean planting progress has been more than half, much higher than the same period last year and the five-year average for the same period
.
The Brazilian government predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 141 million tons, an increase of 2.
5% year-on-year, as the planted area will increase to 40 million hectares (98.
8 million acres)
.
In Argentina, BAGE data shows that as of November 3, soybean planting progress was 7.
1%, up from 4.
6% a week ago
.
Soybean sown area in Argentina this year is expected to be 16.
5 million hectares, which is lower than the 16.
9 million hectares in 2020/21 and the lowest level in 15 years because of higher corn yields
.
However, soybean production is expected to increase to 44 million tons, up from 43.
1 million tons in the previous year
.
1%, up from 4.
6% a week ago
.
Soybean sown area in Argentina this year is expected to be 16.
5 million hectares, which is lower than the 16.
9 million hectares in 2020/21 and the lowest level in 15 years because of higher corn yields
.
However, soybean production is expected to increase to 44 million tons, up from 43.
1 million tons in the previous year
.
However, La Niña appears again this year.
Although the intensity may not be as strong as last year, it will still bring uncertainty to soybean production
.
If the intensity of La Niña increases in December, it may threaten the yield potential of soybeans, because the soybean crop will enter a critical growth period
.
The La Niña phenomenon usually leads to hot and dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina
.
Although the intensity may not be as strong as last year, it will still bring uncertainty to soybean production
.
If the intensity of La Niña increases in December, it may threaten the yield potential of soybeans, because the soybean crop will enter a critical growth period
.
The La Niña phenomenon usually leads to hot and dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina
.
U.
S.
soybean export sales still lag behind the same period last year
S.
soybean export sales still lag behind the same period last year
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending October 28, 2021, US soybean net sales for the year 2021/22 were 1,863,900 tons, an increase of 58% from the previous week and an increase of 19% from the four-week average
.
So far this year, soybean export sales totaled 32.
315 million tons, a decrease of 33.
3% from the same period last year
.
The data also shows that so far this year, the total soybean sales of the United States to China have fallen by 35% year-on-year
.
.
So far this year, soybean export sales totaled 32.
315 million tons, a decrease of 33.
3% from the same period last year
.
The data also shows that so far this year, the total soybean sales of the United States to China have fallen by 35% year-on-year
.
It is currently the peak season for U.
S.
soybean exports, but after Hurricane Ida destroyed the Gulf of America at the end of August, U.
S.
logistics has not been able to fully recover, causing the pace of U.
S.
soybean exports to lag behind
.
In addition, Brazilian farmers have been actively selling soybean stocks recently, and market supply has improved, lowering their prices.
However, US soybean prices have strengthened due to harvest delays and the soaring vegetable oil market, resulting in the current price of Brazilian soybeans being lower than US supplies, prompting China to switch to Brazilian supplies
.
The relatively low profit of China's soybean crush also makes some Chinese buyers rather wait for the Brazilian new beans to be launched early next year
.
S.
soybean exports, but after Hurricane Ida destroyed the Gulf of America at the end of August, U.
S.
logistics has not been able to fully recover, causing the pace of U.
S.
soybean exports to lag behind
.
In addition, Brazilian farmers have been actively selling soybean stocks recently, and market supply has improved, lowering their prices.
However, US soybean prices have strengthened due to harvest delays and the soaring vegetable oil market, resulting in the current price of Brazilian soybeans being lower than US supplies, prompting China to switch to Brazilian supplies
.
The relatively low profit of China's soybean crush also makes some Chinese buyers rather wait for the Brazilian new beans to be launched early next year
.
China's soybean imports fell sharply in October
According to data released by China Customs, China’s soybean imports in October 2021 were 5.
11 million tons, down from 6.
88 million tons in September and 8.
69 million tons in the same period last year.
At the end of the month, Hurricane Ida, which landed in the coastal area of Louisiana in the United States, caused the U.
S.
Gulf export facility to suspend operations for several weeks
.
11 million tons, down from 6.
88 million tons in September and 8.
69 million tons in the same period last year.
At the end of the month, Hurricane Ida, which landed in the coastal area of Louisiana in the United States, caused the U.
S.
Gulf export facility to suspend operations for several weeks
.
Considering that China's soybean crush profits have improved since September, and the US Gulf export operations have basically resumed, the pace of China's soybean imports may accelerate in the next few months
.
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture Counselor in China estimates that China's soybean imports in 2020/21 will be 99.
76 million tons, which is higher than the previous forecast of 99 million tons
.
China's soybean imports in 2021/22 are expected to reach 101 million tons, which is the same as earlier expectations
.
S.
Department of Agriculture Counselor in China estimates that China's soybean imports in 2020/21 will be 99.
76 million tons, which is higher than the previous forecast of 99 million tons
.
China's soybean imports in 2021/22 are expected to reach 101 million tons, which is the same as earlier expectations
.
Rapeseed supply is extremely tight and prices continue to rise
The rapeseed market continued to climb this week because of tight supply
.
Severe dry weather in Canada's agricultural production areas this spring resulted in a sharp drop in rapeseed production
.
In its October supply and demand report, the Canadian Department of Agriculture predicted that rapeseed production in the 2021/22 season would fall to 12.
8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.
4%, a 13-year low
.
The ending stocks of rapeseed at the end of August 2022 are expected to fall to 500,000 tons, far lower than the 1.
767 million tons of the previous year
.
Historically, the highest record of Canadian rapeseed ending stocks was 4.
4 million tons in 2018/19, and the previous record low was 590,000 tons in 2012/13
.
This year's rapeseed stock usage ratio is expected to be a record low of 4%, only half of the previous year's 8%
.
It is worth mentioning that the oil content of rapeseed this year is only 41.
4%, which is lower than last year's 44.
1% and the five-year average of 44.
2%
.
.
Severe dry weather in Canada's agricultural production areas this spring resulted in a sharp drop in rapeseed production
.
In its October supply and demand report, the Canadian Department of Agriculture predicted that rapeseed production in the 2021/22 season would fall to 12.
8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.
4%, a 13-year low
.
The ending stocks of rapeseed at the end of August 2022 are expected to fall to 500,000 tons, far lower than the 1.
767 million tons of the previous year
.
Historically, the highest record of Canadian rapeseed ending stocks was 4.
4 million tons in 2018/19, and the previous record low was 590,000 tons in 2012/13
.
This year's rapeseed stock usage ratio is expected to be a record low of 4%, only half of the previous year's 8%
.
It is worth mentioning that the oil content of rapeseed this year is only 41.
4%, which is lower than last year's 44.
1% and the five-year average of 44.
2%
.
The declining supply of rapeseed has restricted demand
.
Data from the Canadian Grain Council showed that as of the week of October 31, Canadian rapeseed exports were 111,500 tons, a decrease of 59.
4% from a week ago
.
The export volume of rapeseed in 2021/22 (beginning in September) so far is 1.
555 million tons, a decrease of 50.
2% year-on-year
.
The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that this year’s exports will be 6.
5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; the domestic crush is expected to be 7.
5 million tons, which was a record 10.
4 million tons last year
.
.
Data from the Canadian Grain Council showed that as of the week of October 31, Canadian rapeseed exports were 111,500 tons, a decrease of 59.
4% from a week ago
.
The export volume of rapeseed in 2021/22 (beginning in September) so far is 1.
555 million tons, a decrease of 50.
2% year-on-year
.
The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that this year’s exports will be 6.
5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; the domestic crush is expected to be 7.
5 million tons, which was a record 10.
4 million tons last year
.
In Europe, the monthly report issued by the Strategic Grains Corporation on November 1st reduced the rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries for the year of 2021/22 to 16.
97 million tons, slightly lower than the 17.
03 million tons predicted last month, but still an increase of 2.
2% year-on-year
.
The rapeseed crush in the EU will also be significantly reduced
.
EU rapeseed stocks at the end of July 2022 are expected to be a record low of 700,000 tons
.
97 million tons, slightly lower than the 17.
03 million tons predicted last month, but still an increase of 2.
2% year-on-year
.
The rapeseed crush in the EU will also be significantly reduced
.
EU rapeseed stocks at the end of July 2022 are expected to be a record low of 700,000 tons
.
Next Tuesday, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture may increase its soybean production forecast in the supply and demand report.
S.
Department of Agriculture may increase its soybean production forecast in the supply and demand report.
Next Tuesday (November 9) the US Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand report
.
Analysts expect that this report may raise US soybean yields and production expectations, and ending stocks will also be further raised
.
The industry’s average forecast of US soybean production is 122 million tons, which is 941,700 tons higher than the October forecast
.
Global soybean stocks will also be raised to 105.
6 million tons, 1.
1 million tons higher than the October forecast
.
.
Analysts expect that this report may raise US soybean yields and production expectations, and ending stocks will also be further raised
.
The industry’s average forecast of US soybean production is 122 million tons, which is 941,700 tons higher than the October forecast
.
Global soybean stocks will also be raised to 105.
6 million tons, 1.
1 million tons higher than the October forecast
.
