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    Home > Food News > Food Articles > Global oilseed market: Midwest will usher in planting window, Chinese demand may slow down

    Global oilseed market: Midwest will usher in planting window, Chinese demand may slow down

    • Last Update: 2022-08-12
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Foreign media May 8 news: The week ended May 6, 2022, global oilseed prices mostly fell, mainly because the weather in the Midwest of the United States improved, which helped farmers to speed up the progress of spring planting, and the prevention and control of the epidemic in China raised concerns about its soybean.
    Demand has slowed, vegetable oil markets such as.

    soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil have fallen sharply, and global inflation remains hig.
     
    July 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $122 a bush on Friday, down 675 cents, or 7%, from a week a.
    Cash US Gulf .
    1 soybeans were quoted at $14775 a bushel ($663 a tonne), down 66 cents, or 64%, from a week a.
    On the Euronext exchange, August rapeseed futures settled at around 842 euros/ton, down 125 euros, or 1%, from a week a.
    The July rapeseed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at 11560 Canadian dollars per ton, down 35 Canadian dollars or 6% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Upper River soybeans was US$636 (including 33% export tax), which was lower than a week a.
    Down $20 or 0
    The July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at about 6,179 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from a week a.
     
    The.

    dollar index rose this week, hitting its highest level since December 2002 at 1007 and closing at 1066, up 4% from a week a.
    The.

    dollar index has risen 8% so far this year and is up 19% from a year earli.

     
    Fed rate hike roils global financial markets
     
    The focus of global financial markets over the past week has been the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rat.

    On May 4, the Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points, the largest rate hike in 22 yea.

    The Fed also announced that it will begin to shrink its balance sheet from JuneIn the three months of June, July and August, the Fed will reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet by $45 billion per month, and by $95 billion in Septemb.

    The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy to quell the highest annual inflation rate in 40 years, boosting a surge in.


    bond yields and a 20-year high for the dollar, while.


    stocks fell sharp.

    Most traders expect the.


    central bank to raise rates by 75 basis points at its June meeting, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is not considering a 75 basis point rate hi.

    All eyes are now on the.


    consumer price index (CPI) report due next Wednesday for clues as to whether.


    inflation is nearing a pe.

    If the index beats expectations, it could spark more volatility in financial markets and provide a case for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more aggressive.

     
    As far as the impact of interest rate hikes on the agricultural market is concerned, Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri in the United States, believes that interest rate hikes may affect.


    agricultural inco.

    If interest rates rise back to 2% in the short term, national farm incomes will be reduced by about 1
    While not all farmers with soybean oil have short-term operating debt, it is true that a significant number of.


    farmers are in de.

    Raising interest rates too quickly by the Federal Reserve could tip the.


    economy into a deep recessi.

     
    Soybean planting is lagging behind, and the weather in mid-May is favorable for planting to start
     
    In April, the weather was cold and rainy at the beginning of spring planting in the Midwest of the United States, which delayed the spring planting wo.

    As of May 1,.


    soybean planting was 8% complete (22% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 13.

    Weather forecasts point to warmer temperatures and drier weather in the Midwest in mid-May, which could help speed up planti.

    More specifically, the West Midwest will open the planting window next we.

     
    The central.


    , including the Great Lakes region, will see warmer temperatures, and the weather will be more summery than the cold, rainy weather that preceded it, Michigan meteorologist Jeff Anderson said Frid.

    Warmer temperatures help fields warm and dry, providing ideal conditions for planti.

    Figures 1 and 2 show the mild and rainy outlook for the next 6 to 10 days, respectively, released Saturday by the National Weather Servi.

     
     .


    soybean crush hits record high in March
     
    The monthly crush data released by the.


    Department of Agriculture showed that the.


    soybean crush in March 2022 was 786 million tons (193 million bushels), which is also the highest record for any month in history and slightly higher than the 784 million tons expected by industry analysts ( 198 million bushels), an increase of 158% from 232 million tons in February and a 47% increase from 647 million tons in March 202 In contrast, data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on April 18 showed that NOPA members crushed 95 million tons of soybeans (1876 million bushels) in March, an increase of 10% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of
     
    High crushing margins helped boost demand for soybean crushing due to healthy demand for.


    soybean produc.

    In previous years it was usually soybean meal that drove soybean crush demand, but this year soybean oil became the real crush profit driv.

    This is mainly related to the increase in demand for renewable fuels driven by rising crude o.

     
    At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the continuous interruption of the Black Sea exports of Ukraine, the top exporter of sunflower oil; the soybean crop of Argentina, the top exporter of soybean oil, has been reduced due to the impact of drought, and the policy is not conducive to soybean oil exports; the top exporter of canola oil, Canada Drought-affected canola stocks at extremely low levels and top palm oil producer Indonesia's policy to ban the export of edible oil from April 28 have helped support soybean oil demand and pric.

     
    Statistics Canada's inventory report released Friday showed that as of March 31, Canadian canola stocks stood at 94 million tonnes, down 43% from a year earlier, 58% below the five-year average and the lowest since March 200
     
    Brazil soybean harvest nears end, exports slump
     
    The 2021/22 soybean harvest in Brazil is drawing to a clo.

    Soybean production was well below initial expectations and the previous year's level due to severe weath.

    Consultancy StoneX recently raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2021/22 to 124 million tonnes, up from 122 million tonnes forecast in April, but still down 2 percent from the previous year and 15 percent below the forecast earlier in the ye.

     
      Lower soybean production has led to lower expor.

    According to data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), Brazil’s soybean exports in April 2022 were 157 million tons, a 28% decrease from the same period last ye.

    Brazil's soybean exports in the first four months of this year were 357 million tons, down about 6% year-on-ye.

     
      The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday that there will be little rain in most of Argentina's agricultural areas for the next seven days, helping farmers to speed up the soybean harve.

    Argentine farmers are currently harvesting soybeans, and as of last Wednesday, the soybean harvest progress reached about 4
    The exchange forecast Argentina’s soybean production in 2021/22 at 42 million tonnes, down from 41 million the previous ye.

    Argentine farmers had pre-sold 107 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2021/22 season as of April 27, down 12 percent from a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry sa.

    In addition to the drop in soybean production, farmers are using soybeans as a hard currency against a weaker peso, contributing to the slow pace of sal.

     
      China's epidemic situation may affect the outlook for agricultural import demand
     
      The recent implementation of lockdown measures in many Chinese cities to prevent the spread of the new crown epidemic may potentially affect soybean dema.

    In fact, the.


    Department of Agriculture had already lowered its forecast for Chinese soybean imports long before the outbreak hit major cities such as Shangh.

    Since February, the.


    Department of Agriculture has lowered China’s import demand three times, from 100 million tons to 91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, reflecting that the loss of China’s pig industry has led to meager or even negative crushing profi.

    On April 21, S&P Global's survey of more than 10 major traders, crushers and brokerages showed that China's soybean import demand in 2022 will decline by 5% to 1% year-on-year due to lower demand from the downstream feed indust.

     
      In contrast to the two soybean deals announced by the USDA in the last week of April (534,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on April 25, and 132,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on April 26), the USDA in the past week No export business to China has been announced, which may be related to the May Day holiday in China, and may also reflect the impact of the epidemic lockdown on import demand and logisti.

     
      On Friday (May 6), only 70,000 tons of soybeans were sold at China's seventh state reserve soybean aucti.

    China's National Grain Exchange said on Friday it would offer 314,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from the state reserve at the May 13 auction, down from 500,000 tonnes at the usual aucti.

    This reflects an easing of domestic supply tensio.

    Soybean inventories in China reached 48 million tons in the week ended April 29, up from 81 million tons in the previous week and the fifth straight weekly increa.

    Imported soybean arrivals in April and May are expected to be higher than in March, traders sa.

     
      The.


    Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report showed net.


    soybean sales for 2021/22 were 735,000 tonnes in the week ended April 28, up 53% from the previous week and 28% above the four-week avera.

    Net sales in 2022/23 were 407,000 tonnes, down from 580,000 tonnes a week earli.

    So far in 2021/22, the total US soybean export sales (shipped and unloaded sales) are 531 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; of which the total soybean sales to China are 305 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.

    As of May 4, US Gulf soybeans were quoted at $662 per ton, Brazil's Paranagua port soybeans were quoted at $655 per ton, and Argentina's upper river soybeans were at $641 per t.

    Oilseed Prices.


    China Outbreak Soybean Oil Palm Oil Vegetable Oil
     
      July 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $122 a bush on Friday, down 675 cents, or 7%, from a week a.

    Cash US Gulf .

    1 soybeans were quoted at $14775 a bushel ($663 a tonne), down 66 cents, or 64%, from a week a.

    On the Euronext exchange, August rapeseed futures settled at around 842 euros/ton, down 125 euros, or 1%, from a week a.

    The July rapeseed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at 11560 Canadian dollars per ton, down 35 Canadian dollars or 6% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Upper River soybeans was US$636 (including 33% export tax), which was lower than a week a.

    Down $20 or 0
    The July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at about 6,179 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from a week a.

     
      The.


    dollar index rose this week, hitting its highest level since December 2002 at 1007 and closing at 1066, up 4% from a week a.

    The.


    dollar index has risen 8% so far this year and is up 19% from a year earli.

     
      Fed rate hike roils global financial markets
     
      The focus of global financial markets over the past week has been the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rat.

    On May 4, the Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points, the largest rate hike in 22 yea.

    The Fed also announced that it will begin to shrink its balance sheet from June In the three months of June, July and August, the Fed will reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet by $45 billion per month, and by $95 billion in Septemb.

    The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy to quell the highest annual inflation rate in 40 years, boosting a surge in.


    bond yields and a 20-year high for the dollar, while.


    stocks fell sharp.

    Most traders expect the.


    central bank to raise rates by 75 basis points at its June meeting, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is not considering a 75 basis point rate hi.

    All eyes are now on the.


    consumer price index (CPI) report due next Wednesday for clues as to whether.


    inflation is nearing a pe.

    If the index beats expectations, it could spark more volatility in financial markets and provide a case for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more aggressive.

     
      As far as the impact of interest rate hikes on the agricultural market is concerned, Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri in the United States, believes that interest rate hikes may affect.


    agricultural inco.

    If interest rates rise back to 2% in the short term, national farm incomes will be reduced by about 1
    While not all farmers with soybean oil have short-term operating debt, it is true that a significant number of.


    farmers are in de.

    Raising interest rates too quickly by the Federal Reserve could tip the.


    economy into a deep recessi.

     
      Soybean planting is lagging behind, and the weather in mid-May is favorable for planting to start
     
      In April, the weather was cold and rainy at the beginning of spring planting in the Midwest of the United States, which delayed the spring planting wo.

    As of May 1,.


    soybean planting was 8% complete (22% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 13.

    Weather forecasts point to warmer temperatures and drier weather in the Midwest in mid-May, which could help speed up planti.

    More specifically, the West Midwest will open the planting window next we.

     
      The central.


    , including the Great Lakes region, will see warmer temperatures, and the weather will be more summery than the cold, rainy weather that preceded it, Michigan meteorologist Jeff Anderson said Frid.

    Warmer temperatures help fields warm and dry, providing ideal conditions for planti.

    Figures 1 and 2 show the mild and rainy outlook for the next 6 to 10 days, respectively, released Saturday by the National Weather Servi.

     
     .


    soybean crush hits record high in March
     
      The monthly crush data released by the.


    Department of Agriculture showed that the.


    soybean crush in March 2022 was 786 million tons (193 million bushels), which is also the highest record for any month in history and slightly higher than the 784 million tons expected by industry analysts ( 198 million bushels), an increase of 158% from 232 million tons in February and a 47% increase from 647 million tons in March 202 In contrast, data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on April 18 showed that NOPA members crushed 95 million tons of soybeans (1876 million bushels) in March, an increase of 10% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of
     
      High crushing margins helped boost demand for soybean crushing due to healthy demand for.


    soybean produc.

    In previous years it was usually soybean meal that drove soybean crush demand, but this year soybean oil became the real crush profit driv.

    This is mainly related to the increase in demand for renewable fuels driven by rising crude o.

     
      At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the continuous interruption of the Black Sea exports of Ukraine, the top exporter of sunflower oil; the soybean crop of Argentina, the top exporter of soybean oil, has been reduced due to the impact of drought, and the policy is not conducive to soybean oil exports; the top exporter of canola oil, Canada Drought-affected canola stocks at extremely low levels and top palm oil producer Indonesia's policy to ban the export of edible oil from April 28 have helped support soybean oil demand and pric.

     
      Statistics Canada's inventory report released Friday showed that as of March 31, Canadian canola stocks stood at 94 million tonnes, down 43% from a year earlier, 58% below the five-year average and the lowest since March 200
     
      Brazil soybean harvest nears end, exports slump
     
      The 2021/22 soybean harvest in Brazil is drawing to a clo.

    Soybean production was well below initial expectations and the previous year's level due to severe weath.

    Consultancy StoneX recently raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2021/22 to 124 million tonnes, up from 122 million tonnes forecast in April, but still down 2 percent from the previous year and 15 percent below the forecast earlier in the ye.

     
      Lower soybean production has led to lower expor.

    According to data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), Brazil’s soybean exports in April 2022 were 157 million tons, a 28% decrease from the same period last ye.

    Brazil's soybean exports in the first four months of this year were 357 million tons, down about 6% year-on-ye.

     
      The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday that there will be little rain in most of Argentina's agricultural areas for the next seven days, helping farmers to speed up the soybean harve.

    Argentine farmers are currently harvesting soybeans, and as of last Wednesday, the soybean harvest progress reached about 4
    The exchange forecast Argentina’s soybean production in 2021/22 at 42 million tonnes, down from 41 million the previous ye.

    Argentine farmers had pre-sold 107 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2021/22 season as of April 27, down 12 percent from a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry sa.

    In addition to the drop in soybean production, farmers are using soybeans as a hard currency against a weaker peso, contributing to the slow pace of sal.

     
      China's epidemic situation may affect the outlook for agricultural import demand
     
      The recent implementation of lockdown measures in many Chinese cities to prevent the spread of the new crown epidemic may potentially affect soybean dema.

    In fact, the.


    Department of Agriculture had already lowered its forecast for Chinese soybean imports long before the outbreak hit major cities such as Shangh.

    Since February, the.


    Department of Agriculture has lowered China’s import demand three times, from 100 million tons to 91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, reflecting that the loss of China’s pig industry has led to meager or even negative crushing profi.

    On April 21, S&P Global's survey of more than 10 major traders, crushers and brokerages showed that China's soybean import demand in 2022 will decline by 5% to 1% year-on-year due to lower demand from the downstream feed indust.

     
      In contrast to the two soybean deals announced by the USDA in the last week of April (534,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on April 25, and 132,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on April 26), the USDA in the past week No export business to China has been announced, which may be related to the May Day holiday in China, and may also reflect the impact of the epidemic lockdown on import demand and logisti.

     
      On Friday (May 6), only 70,000 tons of soybeans were sold at China's seventh state reserve soybean aucti.

    China's National Grain Exchange said on Friday it would offer 314,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from the state reserve at the May 13 auction, down from 500,000 tonnes at the usual aucti.

    This reflects an easing of domestic supply tensio.

    Soybean inventories in China reached 48 million tons in the week ended April 29, up from 81 million tons in the previous week and the fifth straight weekly increa.

    Imported soybean arrivals in April and May are expected to be higher than in March, traders sa.

     
      The.


    Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report showed net.


    soybean sales for 2021/22 were 735,000 tonnes in the week ended April 28, up 53% from the previous week and 28% above the four-week avera.

    Net sales in 2022/23 were 407,000 tonnes, down from 580,000 tonnes a week earli.

    So far in 2021/22, the total US soybean export sales (shipped and unloaded sales) are 531 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; of which the total soybean sales to China are 305 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.

    As of May 4, US Gulf soybeans were quoted at $662 per ton, Brazil's Paranagua port soybeans were quoted at $655 per ton, and Argentina's upper river soybeans were at $641 per t.

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