Global oilseed market: macro concerns fade, oilseed prices rise

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures closed at 1,323.
25 cents/po, up 32.
5 cents or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 14.
3975 US dollars per cat (529 US dollars per ton), an increase of 39 cents or 2.
78% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 571.
50 euros/ton, an increase of 14 euros or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) November rapeseed futures reported approximately 912.
70 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 47.
8 Canadian dollars or 5.
5% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was 540 US dollars (including 33% export tax) ), an increase of $19 or 3.
65% over a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybeans closed at 5,895 yuan/ton in November, up 194 yuan or 3.
4% from a week ago
.

 

　　China successfully controls the delta mutant virus epidemic, global macro concerns fade

 

　　In the past week, the international bulk commodity market rose strongly, rebounding from the previous week’s sharp drop
.
The sharp drop in the previous week was related to the worries caused by the delta mutant virus epidemic
.
Earlier this week, China successfully controlled the epidemic since July and became the world's first major economy to successfully control the highly contagious delta mutant virus, which greatly encouraged investors' confidence in the continued recovery of the global economy and investor risks.
Preference has risen significantly, making the commodity markets including crude oil, base metals and agricultural products higher across the board
.
In addition, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated on Friday that it will not raise interest rates soon, which will help alleviate people's concerns that the United States will soon tighten its monetary support policy, which has caused the dollar exchange rate to fall, thereby boosting the prices of commodities quoted in the dollar
.

 

　　The weather in the Midwestern United States influences the recent trend of soybeans

 

　　According to the weekly crop progress report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday, as of August 22, the blooming rate of US soybeans was 97% and the pod setting rate was 88%
.
The excellent and good rate of soybeans was 56%, a decrease of 1% from a week ago and lower than 69% in the same period last year
.
As soybeans enter a critical yield formation period, short-term weather forecasts have become a key variable that affects future price rises and falls
.
Showers and thundershowers in the northern Midwest this week helped alleviate the drought, but local high winds and hail caused crop damage
.
There were also severe storms in the northwestern corn belt on Thursday, with wind speeds as high as 78 mph in parts of Minnesota and 75 mph in parts of South Dakota
.
At the same time, the dry and hot weather in the southern corn growing belt helps the crops to mature faster
.
Weather forecasts show that temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the United States will be higher from September 1-5, and rainfall in most areas is close to or higher than normal
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently estimates that the end of 2020/21 U.
S.
soybean stocks will be 135 million cats, and the end of 2020/22 stocks are expected to increase slightly to 155 million cats, but this is still a historically low level
.
Therefore, some traders and analysts believe that soybean prices are likely to see a wave of rise after the harvest
.
However, technically speaking, soybean prices are at historical highs, with heavy selling pressure above the US$14
.

 

　　Chinese buyers continue to buy U.
S.
soybeans this week

 

　　As far as US soybean exports are concerned, what has attracted the most attention recently is the continued buying by Chinese buyers
.
US private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China on Tuesday, 133,000 tons of soybeans to China on Thursday, and 129,000 tons of soybeans to China on Friday, all for delivery in the 2020/22 season
.
Since August 5, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has reported single-day soybean export sales for 14 days, with a total of 3.
24 million tons of soybeans sold
.

 

　　It is worth mentioning that China National Grain Reserves held the first batch of soybean auctions this year on August 24, and the 294,892 tons of imported soybeans provided were sold out
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that in the week ending August 19, the net sales of US old beans were 75,000 tons; the net sales of new beans were 1.
75 million tons, which was lower than the 2.
14 million tons a week ago and also lower than last year.
The same period of 1.
87 million tons, but much higher than the 350,000 tons in the same period in 2019
.
So far in 2020/21, the total US soybean exports are 59.
96 million tons, which is equivalent to 97.
5% of the US Department of Agriculture’s export target of 61.
51 million tons.
This means that US soybean exports are likely to fail to achieve the target, and the US soybean ending stocks may also be compared accordingly.
The current expected level is 550,000 to 800,000 tons higher
.

 

　　South American new bean planting prospects are mixed

 

　　From next month, farmers in Mato Grosso and the central region of Brazil will start planting soybean crops for the year 2021/22.
Soybean planting in Argentina will be about one month later
.
From the perspective of favorable factors, high international soybean prices and good planting profits will encourage Brazilian farmers to continue to expand the soybean planting area
.
This week, the National Commodity Supply Company of Brazil (CONAB) released its production forecast for the year 2021/22 for the first time.
It is estimated that the soybean production for the next year will reach 141.
3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%
.
It is basically in line with the predictions of other private organizations
.
In Argentina, the situation is different.
Due to different tax burdens, corn and wheat planting yields are relatively higher.
Therefore, the Rosario Grain Exchange expects that the Argentine soybean planting area will be reduced to 16.
7 million hectares in 2020/22, the lowest in 15 years.
Level, because farmers continue to switch to other crops
.

 

　　However, many meteorological agencies have recently predicted that La Niña is likely to appear again this winter
.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that the La Niña phenomenon will occur between November 2021 and January 2022 at a 70% rate.
Last year, the strongest La Niña phenomenon occurred in a decade
.
The dry weather in Argentina in the next six months may not only cause damage to the output of corn and soybeans in Argentina, but also mean that the water level of the Parana River will continue to be affected by dry weather, which will affect grain exports
.

 

　　Canada's rapeseed production continues to decline

 

　　The severe drought in Canadian agricultural production areas this year has led to a sharp decline in rapeseed production and yield potential
.
According to a supply and demand report released by the Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food on Thursday, rapeseed output this year is expected to be 15 million tons, which is far lower than the 19,885 million tons predicted in July and 18.
72 million tons in the previous year
.
Due to the sharp decline in production, exports in 2021/22 are expected to be 7 million tons, far lower than the 10.
9 million tons in the previous year
.
Statistics Canada will release production forecast data based on field surveys on August 30
.
Analysts believe that the actual output may be only 11.
5 to 16 million tons
.