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Gulf export facilities caused by Hurricane Ida this week ; favorable rainfall in the Midwest of the United States , Boost soybean yield potential; Statistics Canada ’s rapeseed production data exceeded market expectations
.
However, US soybean export demand is good, especially Chinese buyers continue to buy, restricting the decline in the oilseed market
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 31.
25 cents, or 2.
4%, from a week ago to close at 1292 cents/po
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$13.
76 per cat (US$505.
6 per ton), down 63.
75 US cents or 4.
43% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 571.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 0.
25 euros from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed period was approximately 26.
5 Canadian dollars or 2.
9% lower than a week ago, to close at 886.
20 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$542 (including 33% export tax).
), up 2 US dollars or 0.
37% from a week ago
.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,812 yuan/ton in November, down 83 or 1.
4% from a week ago
.
25 cents, or 2.
4%, from a week ago to close at 1292 cents/po
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$13.
76 per cat (US$505.
6 per ton), down 63.
75 US cents or 4.
43% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at about 571.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 0.
25 euros from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) November rapeseed period was approximately 26.
5 Canadian dollars or 2.
9% lower than a week ago, to close at 886.
20 Canadian dollars/ton; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$542 (including 33% export tax).
), up 2 US dollars or 0.
37% from a week ago
.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybeans closed at 5,812 yuan/ton in November, down 83 or 1.
4% from a week ago
.
Improved weather in the Midwest
According to the National Crop Progress Weekly Report issued by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday, as of August 29 (Sunday), the excellent and good rate of soybeans was 56%, the same as a week ago and 66% in the same period last year
.
Recently, some areas of the Midwestern United States have ushered in favorable rainfall, and weather forecasts show that more rainfall will occur in the future, which is very conducive to the growth of soybean crops and boosts the yield potential
.
Rainfall in the central and western regions may be lower than normal in the next 6 to 10 days
.
.
Recently, some areas of the Midwestern United States have ushered in favorable rainfall, and weather forecasts show that more rainfall will occur in the future, which is very conducive to the growth of soybean crops and boosts the yield potential
.
Rainfall in the central and western regions may be lower than normal in the next 6 to 10 days
.
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, 28% of the soybean planting belt in the Midwest is in a moderate to severe drought, which is 4 percentage points lower than a week ago
.
With the improvement of the weather, a large number of speculative funds established in the CBOT soybean futures and options market chose to liquidate their positions and suppress the price of soybeans
.
.
With the improvement of the weather, a large number of speculative funds established in the CBOT soybean futures and options market chose to liquidate their positions and suppress the price of soybeans
.
U.
S.
soybean crush improved, but still lower than the same period last year
S.
soybean crush improved, but still lower than the same period last year
According to the monthly oilseed processing report released by the US Department of Agriculture this week, the US soybean crush in July 2021 was 4.
99 million tons (166 million cattails), an increase of 2.
9% from June, but a decrease of 9.
9% from July of last year
.
99 million tons (166 million cattails), an increase of 2.
9% from June, but a decrease of 9.
9% from July of last year
.
U.
S.
soybean oil production in July was 1.
97 billion pounds, an increase of 3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7%
.
The output of refined soybean oil was 1.
58 billion pounds, a decrease of 1% from the previous month and a decrease of 5% from the same period last year
.
S.
soybean oil production in July was 1.
97 billion pounds, an increase of 3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7%
.
The output of refined soybean oil was 1.
58 billion pounds, a decrease of 1% from the previous month and a decrease of 5% from the same period last year
.
Hurricane Ida shuts down US Gulf export facilities
At noon on August 29, Hurricane Ida, the second-strongest Hurricane in history after Katrina, landed on the coastal areas of Louisiana.
It was a Category 4 hurricane at the time of registration, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150 mph, accompanied by heavy rain
.
After the hurricane hit, more than 1 million residents of New Orleans had power outages
.
In Mississippi, 133,000 homes also had power outages
.
The hurricane caused damage to facilities in the export hub of the United States and Mexico and caused power outages
.
Among them, Cargill's grain export terminal at Westwego was seriously damaged, and another grain export facility at Reserve was also damaged and shut down
.
It was a Category 4 hurricane at the time of registration, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150 mph, accompanied by heavy rain
.
After the hurricane hit, more than 1 million residents of New Orleans had power outages
.
In Mississippi, 133,000 homes also had power outages
.
The hurricane caused damage to facilities in the export hub of the United States and Mexico and caused power outages
.
Among them, Cargill's grain export terminal at Westwego was seriously damaged, and another grain export facility at Reserve was also damaged and shut down
.
Chicago-based ADM has four grain warehouses and port operations in the area and closed all facilities before the hurricane made landfall
.
On August 31, ADM stated that it had not found any serious structural damage, but the area was still out of power
.
Once the timetable for the full restoration of electricity or temporary generator services is determined, we will estimate when it will reopen
.
Bunge said on September 1 that the damage to its facilities was minor
.
But because there is no power supply, they cannot operate
.
.
On August 31, ADM stated that it had not found any serious structural damage, but the area was still out of power
.
Once the timetable for the full restoration of electricity or temporary generator services is determined, we will estimate when it will reopen
.
Bunge said on September 1 that the damage to its facilities was minor
.
But because there is no power supply, they cannot operate
.
The U.
S.
Coast Guard said that the 60-mile waterway remains impassable due to the collapse of the transmission line and the sinking or stranding of the barge
.
Shipping sources said that more than 50 ocean-going freighters are anchored along the Mississippi River, waiting for the port to reopen to load corn, soybeans and other agricultural products
.
Some grain companies said it may take several weeks to restore electricity supply in the US Gulf region
.
S.
Coast Guard said that the 60-mile waterway remains impassable due to the collapse of the transmission line and the sinking or stranding of the barge
.
Shipping sources said that more than 50 ocean-going freighters are anchored along the Mississippi River, waiting for the port to reopen to load corn, soybeans and other agricultural products
.
Some grain companies said it may take several weeks to restore electricity supply in the US Gulf region
.
On Saturday (September 4), the US Coast Guard stated that the lower Mississippi River from the Gulf Coast to the Port of New Orleans has been cleaned up and normal shipping and freight operations can be resumed
.
Cargo ship traffic along this most important commercial waterway in the United States has been interrupted for several days due to Hurricane Ida
.
The Coast Guard said that restrictions on the lower reaches of the Mississippi River west of New Orleans were lifted on Friday night after the power transmission line that was knocked down by the storm was cleared
.
.
Cargo ship traffic along this most important commercial waterway in the United States has been interrupted for several days due to Hurricane Ida
.
The Coast Guard said that restrictions on the lower reaches of the Mississippi River west of New Orleans were lifted on Friday night after the power transmission line that was knocked down by the storm was cleared
.
US soybean export demand is strong, but the export target for old soybeans may be lowered
US soybean export sales were strong this week
.
As of the week ending August 26, 2021, U.
S.
net sales of soybeans in 2020/21 were 68,000 tons, an increase of 9% from the four-week average
.
The net sales volume in 2021/22 was 2.
13 million tons, which was higher than the 1.
75 million tons a week ago and also exceeded market expectations
.
U.
S.
soybean exports so far in 2020/21 totaled 60.
287 million tons, an increase of 37.
7% over the same period last year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently estimates that U.
S.
soybean exports for 2020/21 will be 61.
51 million tons
.
Since there are only 5 trading days before the end of the year, it is difficult for the export volume to achieve the USDA target
.
Judging from the export inspection data, as of August 26, the US soybean export inspection volume was 59.
28 million tons, which is only 96.
4% of the export target, which means that the US Department of Agriculture is likely to lower the US 2020/21 year in the supply and demand report next week.
Estimated value of soybean exports
.
.
As of the week ending August 26, 2021, U.
S.
net sales of soybeans in 2020/21 were 68,000 tons, an increase of 9% from the four-week average
.
The net sales volume in 2021/22 was 2.
13 million tons, which was higher than the 1.
75 million tons a week ago and also exceeded market expectations
.
U.
S.
soybean exports so far in 2020/21 totaled 60.
287 million tons, an increase of 37.
7% over the same period last year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently estimates that U.
S.
soybean exports for 2020/21 will be 61.
51 million tons
.
Since there are only 5 trading days before the end of the year, it is difficult for the export volume to achieve the USDA target
.
Judging from the export inspection data, as of August 26, the US soybean export inspection volume was 59.
28 million tons, which is only 96.
4% of the export target, which means that the US Department of Agriculture is likely to lower the US 2020/21 year in the supply and demand report next week.
Estimated value of soybean exports
.
China's soybean import demand may exceed expectations
In the past week, Chinese buyers continued to purchase US soybeans
.
Private exporters reported selling 256,000 tons of soybeans to China on Monday, 126,000 tons of soybeans to China on Thursday, and 130,000 tons of soybeans to China on Friday, all of which will be delivered in 2020/22
.
Well-known analyst Dorab Mistry said that China's soybean imports this year may far exceed market expectations
.
As China stabilizes commodity prices by putting in state reserves and forcing speculative funds to liquidate its positions, it will eventually need to replenish its inventory to increase soybean import demand
.
.
Private exporters reported selling 256,000 tons of soybeans to China on Monday, 126,000 tons of soybeans to China on Thursday, and 130,000 tons of soybeans to China on Friday, all of which will be delivered in 2020/22
.
Well-known analyst Dorab Mistry said that China's soybean imports this year may far exceed market expectations
.
As China stabilizes commodity prices by putting in state reserves and forcing speculative funds to liquidate its positions, it will eventually need to replenish its inventory to increase soybean import demand
.
Statistics Canada’s rapeseed production forecast is higher than expected
On Monday, Statistics Canada released a production report based on field surveys.
It is estimated that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2021/22 will be 14.
7 million tons, which is 24.
3% lower than the previous year, but higher than the industry's expected 14.
1 million tons
.
It is estimated that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2021/22 will be 14.
7 million tons, which is 24.
3% lower than the previous year, but higher than the industry's expected 14.
1 million tons
.
The reason for the year-on-year decline in rapeseed production was the dry weather in the Prairie provinces, resulting in a yield per acre of 29.
2 bushels per acre, a decrease of 30.
1% year-on-year, the lowest yield in 10 years
.
2 bushels per acre, a decrease of 30.
1% year-on-year, the lowest yield in 10 years
.
U.
S.
Department of Agriculture may adjust U.
S.
soybean planting area
S.
Department of Agriculture may adjust U.
S.
soybean planting area
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a supply and demand report on September 10, when it will adjust the acreage of corn and soybeans in the United States, which will not be done until October in previous years
.
Rich Fields, a senior analyst at O'Brien, believes that the USDA may increase the corn planting area by 800,000 to 1.
2 million acres, and the sorghum planting area may increase by 1 million acres
.
Terry Rayleigh of Chicago Futures International believes that the corn planting area may increase by 500,000 to 1 million acres, and the soybean planting area may increase by 200,000 to 450,000 acres
.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a supply and demand report on September 10, when it will adjust the acreage of corn and soybeans in the United States, which will not be done until October in previous years
.
Rich Fields, a senior analyst at O'Brien, believes that the USDA may increase the corn planting area by 800,000 to 1.
2 million acres, and the sorghum planting area may increase by 1 million acres
.
Terry Rayleigh of Chicago Futures International believes that the corn planting area may increase by 500,000 to 1 million acres, and the soybean planting area may increase by 200,000 to 450,000 acres
.
IHS Markit estimates that US soybean production will be 4.
358 billion cats, which is lower than last month's forecast of 4.
464 billion cats; the yield is 50 cats/acre, which is lower than the earlier forecast of 51.
5 cats/acre
.
As a comparison, the US Department of Agriculture predicted in its August supply and demand report that US soybean production would be 4.
339 billion bushels, with a yield of 50 bushels per acre
.
Recently, Pro Farmer, a subsidiary of the American Farm Futures Magazine, conducted a four-day annual field trip to seven major soybean-producing states in the Midwest, and it is estimated that the US soybean production this year will be 4.
436 billion bushels
.
358 billion cats, which is lower than last month's forecast of 4.
464 billion cats; the yield is 50 cats/acre, which is lower than the earlier forecast of 51.
5 cats/acre
.
As a comparison, the US Department of Agriculture predicted in its August supply and demand report that US soybean production would be 4.
339 billion bushels, with a yield of 50 bushels per acre
.
Recently, Pro Farmer, a subsidiary of the American Farm Futures Magazine, conducted a four-day annual field trip to seven major soybean-producing states in the Midwest, and it is estimated that the US soybean production this year will be 4.
436 billion bushels
.
