Global oilseed market: global inflationary pressures have increased, and oilseed prices have slowed

Foreign media news on October 24: In the week ending October 22, 2021, most of the global oilseed market has risen, but the rise is showing signs of slowing down
.
The supply of canola in Canada is tight, and international crude oil futures are strong, which is bullish for the oilseed market
.
However , the growth of vegetable oils has slowed down, the new soybean harvest in the United States is on the market, the South American soybean producing areas are expected to usher in favorable rains, and the soaring production costs of chemical fertilizers may cause the corn planting area to fall next year , while the soybean planting area increases, restricting the growth of the oilseed market
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January soybean futures rose about 4.
5 cents or 0.
2% from a week ago to close at 1230.
75 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$12.
975 per cat (US$476.
3 per ton), up 1.
25 cents from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, the rapeseed futures in February 2022 will close at about 669.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 6 euros or 0.
9% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at approximately 925.
30 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 18.
20 Canadian dollars or 2% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$538 (including 33% export).
Tax), the same as a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 soybean futures contract settlement price is 6,155 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 1.
9% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
61 points, down 0.
4% from a week ago
.
High global inflation prompts central banks to shrink balance sheetsFirst look back at the impressive events of the past week.
Global inflation is high, the carbon emission summit, crude oil hit a 7-year high, London futures copper stocks have fallen sharply, cryptocurrencies have skyrocketed, the Fed will start to reduce asset purchases next month, and the European epidemic has returned
.
Commodities, including copper, hit record highs at the beginning of the week.
However, as the power crisis triggered government intervention, China’s thermal coal prices continued to plummet.
Starting from Thursday, they include industrial metals, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed.
Commodities within have declined under the pressure of long liquidation orders and speculative selling
.
This is a technical modification of the previous sharp rise in the market, but it marks the end of this round of bull market? Investment bank analysts are also divided
.
If you look at the root cause of this round of commodity rises, it is largely related to the Fed’s unrestrained super quantitative easing policy.
The depreciation of the U.
S.
dollar and inflation re-trading, coupled with the economic recovery after the epidemic, have promoted the growth of commodity demand, which has become an incentive for commodity prices.
The fuse of the rise
.
However, as more and more central banks of countries join the ranks of shrinking balance sheets, inflation concerns are likely to evolve into stagflation concerns, which may lead to more turbulence and turbulence in the commodity market in the future
.
On Sunday (October 24), Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), believes that inflationary pressures are likely to continue until mid-2022, and then return to a more normal level of inflation by the end of next year
.
This is also consistent with the views of the US Treasury Secretary Yellen
.
Yellen said on Sunday that the inflation rate will return to normal in the second half of 2022
.
 　　Uncertainty in China's soybean import demand 　　In terms of the micro dynamic structure of the soybean market, soybeans have been led by the explosive rise of soybean oil in the past few weeks.
However, as soybean oil's rise last week was blocked and became a follower of the palm oil market, the soybean market appeared weak
.
At the same time, the trend of soybean meal is obviously stronger than in the past few weeks, showing an oversold rebound trend
.
Derunlin analyst Ping Chuan said that since October 15, the US Department of Agriculture has not confirmed new soybean orders from China
.
The increasingly turbulent Sino-US relations have also cast a shadow over the prospects of China's soybean import demand
.
An intriguing column written by Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics on Friday, suggests that slowing economic growth may lead to internal risk spillovers, which may lead to greater geographic tension
.
Dorab Mistry also mentioned the impact of Sino-US relations on the soybean trade flow in a video posted at his home in London recently.
He believes that the top soybean buyer is good at using trade tools to beat his opponents
.
Considering that the prospects for the production of Brazilian soybeans as an alternative supply are optimistic, and the domestic pig industry is still operating poorly, the prospects for China's demand for US soybeans in the coming year will be variable
.
 　　U.
S.
new beans are harvested on the market, but the pace of export has not accelerated significantly 　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop report showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest was 60% completed, 49% a week ago, 73% in the same period last year, and the five-year average progress was 55%
.
The market expects 62%
.
With more than half of the harvesting work completed, some end-users have begun to raise their basis prices to attract farmers to sell new beans
.
 　　Customs data shows that China imported 169,439 tons of soybeans from the United States in September, far below the 1.
17 million tons in the same period last year, partly because Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf of America and shut down local export facilities for several weeks
.
 　　In September, China imported 5.
936 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a decrease of 18.
1% from 7.
25 million tons in the same period last year.
The low profit of domestic crushing has restricted the import demand of domestic oil plants
.
 　　Canola supply is tight in Canada 　　The hot and dry weather in the Canadian prairie this year has led to a sharp decline in rapeseed production, supporting the price of rapeseed
.
According to the October report issued by the Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food, the Canadian rapeseed production in the 2021/22 season is expected to be 12.
78 million tons, a sharp decrease of 34.
4% over the previous year
.
Export volume is expected to be 6.
5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.
3%; ending inventory is expected to be 500,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.
7%
.
 　　According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia exported 151,763 tons of rapeseed in August 2021, an increase of 39% from the previous month, which was also much higher than the 1,636 tons in the same period last year
.
Rabobank predicts that Australia’s rapeseed output will reach a record 5.
16 million tons this year, an increase of 14% year-on-year and a sharp increase of 48% from the five-year average because of the increase in planting area and good growing conditions in many areas
.
 　　Increased fertilizer costs may help increase soybean planting area next year 　　Another focus of the oilseed market this week is the soaring cost of production materials such as fertilizers and pesticides
.
Due to the higher dependence of corn on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, market participants speculate that next year American farmers may reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area
.
Analysis agency Informa predicts that the US soybean planting area will be 87.
3 million acres in 2022, slightly higher than the 87.
2 million acres in 2021
.
The corn sown area is estimated to be 92.
3 million acres, down from 93.
3 million acres in 2021
.
 　　South American soybean planting advancement 　　South American farmers continue to grow soybeans
.
The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) stated that as of October 16, 23.
7% of soybeans were planted in Brazil for the 2021/22 season, which was much higher than the 7.
7% in the same period of the previous year
.
Weather forecasts show that there will be rainfall in Argentina and Brazil in the next six to ten days, which is conducive to the growth of soybean crops that have just been sown
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 144 million tons, which is higher than the previous year’s 137 million tons
.
Oilseeds Canadian canola vegetable oil US soybean corn 　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January soybean futures rose about 4.
5 cents or 0.
2% from a week ago to close at 1230.
75 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was US$12.
975 per cat (US$476.
3 per ton), up 1.
25 cents from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, the rapeseed futures in February 2022 will close at about 669.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 6 euros or 0.
9% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at approximately 925.
30 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 18.
20 Canadian dollars or 2% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Shanghe soybeans provided by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture was US$538 (including 33% export).
Tax), the same as a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 soybean futures contract settlement price is 6,155 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 1.
9% from a week ago
.
 　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
61 points, down 0.
4% from a week ago
.
 　　High global inflation prompts central banks to shrink balance sheets 　　First look back at the impressive events of the past week.
Global inflation is high, the carbon emission summit, crude oil hit a 7-year high, London futures copper stocks have fallen sharply, cryptocurrencies have skyrocketed, the Fed will start to reduce asset purchases next month, and the European epidemic has returned
.
Commodities, including copper, hit record highs at the beginning of the week.
However, as the power crisis triggered government intervention, China’s thermal coal prices continued to plummet.
Starting from Thursday, they include industrial metals, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed.
Commodities within have declined under the pressure of long liquidation orders and speculative selling
.
This is a technical modification of the previous sharp rise in the market, but it marks the end of this round of bull market? Investment bank analysts are also divided
.
If you look at the root cause of this round of commodity rises, it is largely related to the Fed’s unrestrained super quantitative easing policy.
The depreciation of the U.
S.
dollar and inflation re-trading, coupled with the economic recovery after the epidemic, have promoted the growth of commodity demand, which has become an incentive for commodity prices.
The fuse of the rise
.
However, as more and more central banks of countries join the ranks of shrinking balance sheets, inflation concerns are likely to evolve into stagflation concerns, which may lead to more turbulence and turbulence in the commodity market in the future
.
On Sunday (October 24), Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), believes that inflationary pressures are likely to continue until mid-2022, and then return to a more normal level of inflation by the end of next year
.
This is also consistent with the views of the US Treasury Secretary Yellen
.
Yellen said on Sunday that the inflation rate will return to normal in the second half of 2022
.
price 　　Uncertainty in China's soybean import demand 　　In terms of the micro dynamic structure of the soybean market, soybeans have been led by the explosive rise of soybean oil in the past few weeks.
However, as soybean oil's rise last week was blocked and became a follower of the palm oil market, the soybean market appeared weak
.
At the same time, the trend of soybean meal is obviously stronger than in the past few weeks, showing an oversold rebound trend
.
Derunlin analyst Ping Chuan said that since October 15, the US Department of Agriculture has not confirmed new soybean orders from China
.
The increasingly turbulent Sino-US relations have also cast a shadow over the prospects of China's soybean import demand
.
An intriguing column written by Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics on Friday, suggests that slowing economic growth may lead to internal risk spillovers, which may lead to greater geographic tension
.
Dorab Mistry also mentioned the impact of Sino-US relations on the soybean trade flow in a video posted at his home in London recently.
He believes that the top soybean buyer is good at using trade tools to beat his opponents
.
Considering that the prospects for the production of Brazilian soybeans as an alternative supply are optimistic, and the domestic pig industry is still operating poorly, the prospects for China's demand for US soybeans in the coming year will be variable
.
 　　U.
S.
new beans are harvested on the market, but the pace of export has not accelerated significantly 　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop report showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest was 60% completed, 49% a week ago, 73% in the same period last year, and the five-year average progress was 55%
.
The market expects 62%
.
With more than half of the harvesting work completed, some end-users have begun to raise their basis prices to attract farmers to sell new beans
.
 　　Customs data shows that China imported 169,439 tons of soybeans from the United States in September, far below the 1.
17 million tons in the same period last year, partly because Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf of America and shut down local export facilities for several weeks
.
 　　In September, China imported 5.
936 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a decrease of 18.
1% from 7.
25 million tons in the same period last year.
The low profit of domestic crushing has restricted the import demand of domestic oil plants
.
 　　Canola supply is tight in Canada 　　The hot and dry weather in the Canadian prairie this year has led to a sharp decline in rapeseed production, supporting the price of rapeseed
.
According to the October report issued by the Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food, the Canadian rapeseed production in the 2021/22 season is expected to be 12.
78 million tons, a sharp decrease of 34.
4% over the previous year
.
Export volume is expected to be 6.
5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.
3%; ending inventory is expected to be 500,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.
7%
.
 　　According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia exported 151,763 tons of rapeseed in August 2021, an increase of 39% from the previous month, which was also much higher than the 1,636 tons in the same period last year
.
Rabobank predicts that Australia’s rapeseed output will reach a record 5.
16 million tons this year, an increase of 14% year-on-year and a sharp increase of 48% from the five-year average because of the increase in planting area and good growing conditions in many areas
.
 　　Increased fertilizer costs may help increase soybean planting area next year 　　Another focus of the oilseed market this week is the soaring cost of production materials such as fertilizers and pesticides
.
Due to the higher dependence of corn on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, market participants speculate that next year American farmers may reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area
.
Analysis agency Informa predicts that the US soybean planting area will be 87.
3 million acres in 2022, slightly higher than the 87.
2 million acres in 2021
.
The corn sown area is estimated to be 92.
3 million acres, down from 93.
3 million acres in 2021
.
 　　South American soybean planting advancement 　　South American farmers continue to grow soybeans
.
The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) stated that as of October 16, 23.
7% of soybeans were planted in Brazil for the 2021/22 season, which was much higher than the 7.
7% in the same period of the previous year
.
Weather forecasts show that there will be rainfall in Argentina and Brazil in the next six to ten days, which is conducive to the growth of soybean crops that have just been sown
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture currently predicts that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 144 million tons, which is higher than the previous year’s 137 million tons
.