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Oilseed price U.
S.
Soybeans U.
S.
Department of Agriculture
S.
Soybeans U.
S.
Department of Agriculture
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)'s November 2022 soybean session closed at around $14.
1225/p, down 0.
58 percent
from a week ago.
The average spot quote for U.
S.
Soybean No.
1 in the September shipment was $16.
0475 per pu, down 0.
67%
from a week ago.
The Euronext exchange closed around €597.
75/mt in the rapeseed period in November, down 2.
45%
from a week ago.
Chicago December soybean oil futures reported 64.
82 cents per pound, down 2.
16 percent from a week ago; Ice's Rapeseed closed at $771.
2/mt in November, down 5.
62% from a week ago; Argentina's Upper River Soybean FOB spot quote was $582 per tonne (including 33% export tax), down 2.
51%
from a week ago.
On Friday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a close of about 5,684 yuan / ton in the November 2022 soybean period, down 2.
47%
from a week ago.
1225/p, down 0.
58 percent
from a week ago.
The average spot quote for U.
S.
Soybean No.
1 in the September shipment was $16.
0475 per pu, down 0.
67%
from a week ago.
The Euronext exchange closed around €597.
75/mt in the rapeseed period in November, down 2.
45%
from a week ago.
Chicago December soybean oil futures reported 64.
82 cents per pound, down 2.
16 percent from a week ago; Ice's Rapeseed closed at $771.
2/mt in November, down 5.
62% from a week ago; Argentina's Upper River Soybean FOB spot quote was $582 per tonne (including 33% export tax), down 2.
51%
from a week ago.
On Friday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a close of about 5,684 yuan / ton in the November 2022 soybean period, down 2.
47%
from a week ago.
International crude oil futures fell
slightly this week.
Russia said it would stop exporting energy to countries that impose price caps, helping to offset concerns about
a slowing global economy and energy demand.
The New York Mercantile Futures Exchange's (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) October contract closed at $86.
79 a barrel, down 0.
09 percent
from a week ago.
Global benchmark November Brent crude futures were quoted at $92.
84/b, down 0.
19%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 108.
997 on Friday, down 0.
47 percent from a week ago and down for the first time in four weeks
.
slightly this week.
Russia said it would stop exporting energy to countries that impose price caps, helping to offset concerns about
a slowing global economy and energy demand.
The New York Mercantile Futures Exchange's (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) October contract closed at $86.
79 a barrel, down 0.
09 percent
from a week ago.
Global benchmark November Brent crude futures were quoted at $92.
84/b, down 0.
19%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 108.
997 on Friday, down 0.
47 percent from a week ago and down for the first time in four weeks
.
The shadow of rate hikes continues to hang over global markets
Macroeconomically, the ECB raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points
on Wednesday (September 7).
The Fed will meet
on September 20 and 21.
The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, raising the benchmark rate to 3%.
On Tuesday (September 13), the US Department of Labor will release inflation in August, which is expected to remain above
8%.
But even if inflation slows, it is unlikely to change the path
of the Fed's aggressive rate hikes.
on Wednesday (September 7).
The Fed will meet
on September 20 and 21.
The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, raising the benchmark rate to 3%.
On Tuesday (September 13), the US Department of Labor will release inflation in August, which is expected to remain above
8%.
But even if inflation slows, it is unlikely to change the path
of the Fed's aggressive rate hikes.
Argentina's policy mix has pushed for a surge in soybean sales
On September 4, Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced that soybean farmers and exporters in September could settle soybean sales revenues at a preferential exchange rate of 200 pesos per dollar, compared with about 140 pesos
at the official exchange rate.
Massa said exporters had reached an agreement with the government to sell at least $5 billion in soybeans
in September.
The preferential exchange rate is only valid
in September.
Previously, Argentine farmers had been reluctant to sell soybeans because of high domestic inflation and the peso's continued depreciation, prompting farmers to regard soybeans as a hard currency
to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
According to Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture, farmers sold 52.
3 percent of their 2021/22 soybeans as of Aug.
31, down from 62.
8 percent
in the same period last year.
Farmers responded strongly after the introduction of preferential exchange rates, selling 3.
1 million tons of soybeans in the three days from September 5 to 7, more than the 667,000 tons
sold in the whole week of last week.
On September 8, Argentina's central bank said that Argentine farmers who hold more than 5 percent of their soybean stocks will face financing costs
above the normal benchmark rate.
Argentina's benchmark interest rate is currently 69.
5%, and the minimum financing cost will be as high as 83.
4%
for those farmers who hoard goods.
at the official exchange rate.
Massa said exporters had reached an agreement with the government to sell at least $5 billion in soybeans
in September.
The preferential exchange rate is only valid
in September.
Previously, Argentine farmers had been reluctant to sell soybeans because of high domestic inflation and the peso's continued depreciation, prompting farmers to regard soybeans as a hard currency
to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
According to Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture, farmers sold 52.
3 percent of their 2021/22 soybeans as of Aug.
31, down from 62.
8 percent
in the same period last year.
Farmers responded strongly after the introduction of preferential exchange rates, selling 3.
1 million tons of soybeans in the three days from September 5 to 7, more than the 667,000 tons
sold in the whole week of last week.
On September 8, Argentina's central bank said that Argentine farmers who hold more than 5 percent of their soybean stocks will face financing costs
above the normal benchmark rate.
Argentina's benchmark interest rate is currently 69.
5%, and the minimum financing cost will be as high as 83.
4%
for those farmers who hoard goods.
Brazilian soybean production was revised upwards
On Thursday (September 8), Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) raised its 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1.
5 million tonnes to 125.
55 million tonnes
.
5 million tonnes to 125.
55 million tonnes
.
Chinese buyers have been actively sourcing soybeans over the past week
Over the past week, Chinese buyers have also been active in sourcing as Argentine farmers have aggressively dumped soybean spot.
Chicago market rumors that China has bought 19 to 23 boats of Argentine soybeans in the past few days, with a 10/11 month sailing schedule; China has also booked as many as 10 to 12 boats of U.
S.
soybeans, as well as as 20 to 24 shipments of Brazilian soybeans, with a february-March schedule
next year.
Chicago market rumors that China has bought 19 to 23 boats of Argentine soybeans in the past few days, with a 10/11 month sailing schedule; China has also booked as many as 10 to 12 boats of U.
S.
soybeans, as well as as 20 to 24 shipments of Brazilian soybeans, with a february-March schedule
next year.
The FOB price for soybeans in Argentina is close to $571/mt, $606/mt in Brazil and $592/mt
in the US.
in the US.
Soybean meal in Argentina is quoted at $453 per short ton, and the United States is $592 per short ton; Argentine soybean oil 1264 US dollars / ton, American soybean oil 1585 US dollars / ton, both FOB quotations
.
.
U.
S.
counselors lower China's demand for soybean imports
S.
counselors lower China's demand for soybean imports
China's soybean imports are expected to be 92 million tonnes in 2021/22, down 2 million tonnes from earlier expectations, mainly reflecting weak demand for vegetable oils in the food sector and lower-than-expected demand for soybean meal in the pig and poultry industries, according to thursday's US Agricultural Counsellor report; In addition, China's soybean imports are expected at 96.
5 million mt in 2022/23, down from an earlier forecast of 98 mt due to weak
demand in the first half of the year.
5 million mt in 2022/23, down from an earlier forecast of 98 mt due to weak
demand in the first half of the year.
China imported 7.
17 million tonnes of soybeans in August, down 24.
5 percent from 9.
49 million mt in the same period last year and the lowest import volume since 2014, China's customs data showed on Wednesday
.
From January to August, China imported 61.
33 million tons of soybeans, down 8.
6%
year-on-year.
This year, China's soybean crushing profits have been sluggish for a long time, affecting the import demand of oil mills
.
17 million tonnes of soybeans in August, down 24.
5 percent from 9.
49 million mt in the same period last year and the lowest import volume since 2014, China's customs data showed on Wednesday
.
From January to August, China imported 61.
33 million tons of soybeans, down 8.
6%
year-on-year.
This year, China's soybean crushing profits have been sluggish for a long time, affecting the import demand of oil mills
.
The industry expects that the USDA may lower its US soybean production forecast
On Monday (September 12), the USDA will release a monthly supply and demand report
.
Analysts expect U.
S.
soybean production to be 4.
496 billion in 2022, down from the 4.
531 billion plutons
forecast by the USDA in August.
However, ending stocks for 2022/23 could be raised to 247 million, higher than the USDA's current forecast of 245 million.
This may reflect a slowdown
in China's import demand.
.
Analysts expect U.
S.
soybean production to be 4.
496 billion in 2022, down from the 4.
531 billion plutons
forecast by the USDA in August.
However, ending stocks for 2022/23 could be raised to 247 million, higher than the USDA's current forecast of 245 million.
This may reflect a slowdown
in China's import demand.
It is worth mentioning that Informa, a well-known analyst in the industry, expects U.
S.
soybean production to be 4.
471 billion pu in 2022, lower than the company's August forecast of 4.
530 billion pu; the average yield of soybeans in the United States is expected to be 51.
3 pu/acre, lower than the 51.
8 pu/acre
forecast in August.
S.
soybean production to be 4.
471 billion pu in 2022, lower than the company's August forecast of 4.
530 billion pu; the average yield of soybeans in the United States is expected to be 51.
3 pu/acre, lower than the 51.
8 pu/acre
forecast in August.
In its August 12 monthly report, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicted an average U.
S.
soybean yield of 51.
9 bushes per acre, for a yield of 4.
531 billion catum, and ProFarmer expects a yield of 51.
7 bushes per acre for 4.
535 billion catum.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicted an average U.
S.
soybean yield of 51.
9 bushes per acre, for a yield of 4.
531 billion catum, and ProFarmer expects a yield of 51.
7 bushes per acre for 4.
535 billion catum.
