Global natural rubber production is still in the cycle of increasing production

Some previous export restrictions in major rubber-producing countries failed to play a substantial role
because the total amount was small and not enough to affect large supply and demand.
As the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are still in the peak production period, although some countries may stop cutting early due to the weather, the output still maintains a growth trend
.
From a domestic point of view, although the domestic cutting is completely stopped, the import volume of tianjiao is large, the downstream demand is relatively weak, and the domestic inventory continues to increase
.

It is estimated that the price of rubber throughout 2018 is still at a low level, with a supply growth rate of 6.
8% in 2017, a small area of new cutting in 2018, and an estimated supply growth rate of about 3% in 2018
.
Overall, supply and demand in 2018 are balanced or slightly excessive, it is worth noting that the global circulating supply and demand balance sheet will further deteriorate if Thailand and China dump reserves, and the consumption growth rate will be at least 5% above to match, which is almost impossible to achieve
.

From the current point of view, the relevant export restrictions of the main rubber-producing countries have not been substantially reflected in the export volume for the time being, and a series of measures that have been gradually implemented are more aimed at subsidizing the rubber people and farmers, and the actual commitment to reduce production is far from the volume
specified in the three-country production reduction agreement.
In the later period, due to the consideration of climatic factors, the temperature in the main producing areas dropped earlier than in previous years, and the main producing areas may enter
the shutdown period in advance.

With the Spring Festival approaching, due to the holiday of downstream factories, the demand for stocking is generally completed in January, so the import volume of tianjiao and tire operating rate will decline
significantly in February.

After the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the main producing countries in Southeast Asia also gradually entered the suspension period from February to March, which is a good time for domestic destocking; On the other hand, the warmer weather in March, the gradual recovery of road transportation and outdoor work industry, will enter a phased peak of demand, there is no lack of speculation of the law, the market may be able to break upward
.
It is expected that rubber will be in a long cycle of supply and demand rebalancing process in 2018, and the market in February is likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to use the strategy of high and short in operation, and the trend short order continues to be held
.