Global methanol supply will surge in the second half of the year

Recently, market participants said that despite the continued strong demand from China's methanol-to-olefin plants, the global methanol market will continue to be under pressure from increasing production capacity into the second half of 2021, and that the production capacity of the United States and Iran will continue to increase
.

The Asian market is mixed

The fundamentals of the Asian methanol market in the second half of the year were mixed
.

Platts data shows that since March, CFR Far East polypropylene prices have been steadily falling, while CFR China methanol prices have remained relatively stable
.

In the Indian methanol market, the country’s new coronary pneumonia infection cases have surged, leading to a large number of local plant shutdowns in many regions, and the outlook for downstream demand is still shrouded in uncertainty
.

European demand remains firm

In the first half of this year, the supply of methanol in the European methanol market continued to be insufficient.
In the second quarter, some installations were planned to be overhauled, coupled with the supply interruption in Trinidad and Venezuela, causing prices in the European market to rise
.

　　The recovery of production capacity in Europe and the increase in imports have weighed on prices.
It is expected that the oversupply in the third quarter will put further pressure on spot prices unless there is a supply delay
.

　　U.
S.
methanol production capacity soars

　　Market participants predict that there will be oversupply in the US methanol market in the second half of the year
.

　　At the same time, market sources revealed that domestic methanol supply in the United States will depend on the reliability of methanol facilities in eastern Texas and Trinidad
.

　　Affected by the economic activity of the new crown pneumonia vaccination in the United States, domestic methanol demand in the United States is also expected to rise in the second half of the year
.
The production of most intermediate products (such as acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer) in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States has fully resumed operation after extensive facility damage caused by freezing damage in February, which will increase the demand for raw methanol
.
It is expected that construction activities will also increase the demand for formaldehyde derivatives in the market
.
However, the demand for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) for gasoline blending is still unknown
.
It also depends on the economic recovery in Mexico and Latin America after the epidemic
.