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The Midwestern US ushered in favorable rains.
, Improve crop conditions
.
However, international crude oil futures have risen and the La Niña phenomenon may reappear this winter, threatening the prospects of South American corn production and restricting the decline in the feed market
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures fell 29.
75 cents, or 5.
4%, to close at 524 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 593.
5 cents per bust, down 67 cents or 10.
1% from a week ago
.
75 cents, or 5.
4%, to close at 524 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 593.
5 cents per bust, down 67 cents or 10.
1% from a week ago
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange reported about 217 euros/ton, down 4.
25 euros or 1.
9% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$233/ton, down US$1 from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at 2,492 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.
2% from a week ago
.
25 euros or 1.
9% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$233/ton, down US$1 from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at 2,492 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.
2% from a week ago
.
International crude oil futures rose this week because of the decline in US crude oil inventories and the suspension of U.
S.
Gulf crude oil production due to Hurricane Ida
.
However, the August non-agricultural employment data in the United States was lower than expected, indicating that the US economic recovery is not as strong as expected, and the growth of new crown cases is still high, which raises concerns that fuel demand will be affected and restrict price increases
.
On Friday, the October contract of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was reported at 69.
29 yuan per barrel, up 0.
8% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark November Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.
61 per barrel, up 1.
27% from a week ago
.
S.
Gulf crude oil production due to Hurricane Ida
.
However, the August non-agricultural employment data in the United States was lower than expected, indicating that the US economic recovery is not as strong as expected, and the growth of new crown cases is still high, which raises concerns that fuel demand will be affected and restrict price increases
.
On Friday, the October contract of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was reported at 69.
29 yuan per barrel, up 0.
8% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark November Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.
61 per barrel, up 1.
27% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
12 points, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
12 points, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
Rainfall in U.
S.
Corn Belt, Drought Relief
S.
Corn Belt, Drought Relief
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of August 29, the excellent rate of corn in the United States was 60%, the same as that of a week ago, and 62% in the same period last year
.
The proportion of mature corn in the United States is 9%, 4% a week ago, 11% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 10%
.
Favorable rains have recently appeared in parts of the Midwestern United States, and more rains will appear in the coming period
.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, 32% of the Midwest corn belt is in moderate to severe drought, which is 6% lower than a week ago
.
However, rainfall may affect the initial harvest
.
.
The proportion of mature corn in the United States is 9%, 4% a week ago, 11% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 10%
.
Favorable rains have recently appeared in parts of the Midwestern United States, and more rains will appear in the coming period
.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, 32% of the Midwest corn belt is in moderate to severe drought, which is 6% lower than a week ago
.
However, rainfall may affect the initial harvest
.
Hurricane Ida may affect U.
S.
agricultural exports
S.
agricultural exports
One focus of market attention is Hurricane Ida
.
Super Hurricane Ida landed on the coast of Louisiana on August 29, causing damage to export facilities in the Gulf of Mexico-the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 60% of the U.
S.
agricultural exports
.
One of Cargill’s grain export terminal was severely damaged, which handled 9% of U.
S.
agricultural exports
.
At a time when global supply is tight and demand is strong, the new season corn in the United States is about to be harvested and listed.
At this time, export facilities are damaged, and large-scale power outages may affect the restart of export facilities, which is worrying about the export prospects
.
.
Super Hurricane Ida landed on the coast of Louisiana on August 29, causing damage to export facilities in the Gulf of Mexico-the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 60% of the U.
S.
agricultural exports
.
One of Cargill’s grain export terminal was severely damaged, which handled 9% of U.
S.
agricultural exports
.
At a time when global supply is tight and demand is strong, the new season corn in the United States is about to be harvested and listed.
At this time, export facilities are damaged, and large-scale power outages may affect the restart of export facilities, which is worrying about the export prospects
.
The 2020/21 U.
S.
corn export target may be lowered
S.
corn export target may be lowered
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending August 26, 2021, US 2020/21 net corn sales fell by 300,800 tons, setting an annual low, which was lower than last week and the four-week average, mainly due to Canada and China has cancelled orders for corn in the old season, but the export sales of corn in the new season are as high as 1.
16 million tons
.
U.
S.
corn exports so far in 2020/21 have reached 66.
7 million tons, an increase of 49.
5% year-on-year, but it is lower than the USDA's annual forecast target of 70.
49 million tons, which means that the USDA may lower the 2020/ Export target for 21 years
.
16 million tons
.
U.
S.
corn exports so far in 2020/21 have reached 66.
7 million tons, an increase of 49.
5% year-on-year, but it is lower than the USDA's annual forecast target of 70.
49 million tons, which means that the USDA may lower the 2020/ Export target for 21 years
.
Brazil's first season corn production is expected to increase
The consulting firm StoneX estimates that the first season corn production in Brazil in 2021/22 will be 29.
8 million tons, which is the same as the previous forecast, an increase of 15.
5% year-on-year, because high corn prices encourage farmers to plant
.
StoneX Company lowered the forecast value of Brazil's second-season corn output by 500,000 tons in 2020/21 to 59.
1 million tons; the second-season corn export forecast data was lowered by more than 1 million tons to 18 million tons
.
At present, the harvesting of the second season corn is coming to an end
.
StoneX estimates that Brazil’s total corn production in 2020/21 will be 86.
62 million tons, which is lower than the previous forecast of 87.
14 million tons
.
8 million tons, which is the same as the previous forecast, an increase of 15.
5% year-on-year, because high corn prices encourage farmers to plant
.
StoneX Company lowered the forecast value of Brazil's second-season corn output by 500,000 tons in 2020/21 to 59.
1 million tons; the second-season corn export forecast data was lowered by more than 1 million tons to 18 million tons
.
At present, the harvesting of the second season corn is coming to an end
.
StoneX estimates that Brazil’s total corn production in 2020/21 will be 86.
62 million tons, which is lower than the previous forecast of 87.
14 million tons
.
According to another consulting firm, Safras, the sown area of maize in the first season in central and southern Brazil is expected to be 4.
384 million hectares in 2020/22, which is lower than the 4.
404 million hectares forecast last month and only an increase of 0.
7% over the previous year because farmers are worried about La Niña.
The impact of weather and corn leafhoppers and other pests
.
Safras expects the first season's corn output to be 25.
549 million tons, higher than the 21.
645 million tons in 2020/21, but lower than the 25.
667 million tons previously forecast
.
384 million hectares in 2020/22, which is lower than the 4.
404 million hectares forecast last month and only an increase of 0.
7% over the previous year because farmers are worried about La Niña.
The impact of weather and corn leafhoppers and other pests
.
Safras expects the first season's corn output to be 25.
549 million tons, higher than the 21.
645 million tons in 2020/21, but lower than the 25.
667 million tons previously forecast
.
Analysis agency AgRural predicts that the sown area of maize in the first season in central and southern Brazil will be 2.
973 million hectares in 2021/22, a year-on-year increase of only 0.
6%, because maize planting costs are higher than soybeans
.
AgRural said that the price of corn is very attractive, but its production cost is higher than that of soybeans, which affects farmers' planting decisions
.
In the past year, the prices of the means of production have risen sharply, especially fertilizers
.
If the weather this year is matched, the corn output in the first season of 2021/22 may reach 21.
5 million tons, an increase of 2.
7 million tons year-on-year
.
973 million hectares in 2021/22, a year-on-year increase of only 0.
6%, because maize planting costs are higher than soybeans
.
AgRural said that the price of corn is very attractive, but its production cost is higher than that of soybeans, which affects farmers' planting decisions
.
In the past year, the prices of the means of production have risen sharply, especially fertilizers
.
If the weather this year is matched, the corn output in the first season of 2021/22 may reach 21.
5 million tons, an increase of 2.
7 million tons year-on-year
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture may increase the U.
S.
corn planting area next week
S.
Department of Agriculture may increase the U.
S.
corn planting area next week
The US market will be closed next Monday to celebrate a public holiday
.
Next Friday, the USDA will release its export sales report and the key September supply and demand report
.
The National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (NASS) announced that it will revise the acreage of corn and soybeans in the United States at that time, and in previous years it usually did not do so until October
.
It is unclear why the planting area was revised ahead of schedule this year
.
O'Brien senior analyst Rich Fields believes that the USDA may increase the corn planting area by 800,000 to 1.
2 million acres, and the sorghum planting area may increase by 1 million acres
.
Terry Rayleigh of Chicago Futures International believes that the corn planting area may increase by 500,000 to 1 million acres
.
.
Next Friday, the USDA will release its export sales report and the key September supply and demand report
.
The National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (NASS) announced that it will revise the acreage of corn and soybeans in the United States at that time, and in previous years it usually did not do so until October
.
It is unclear why the planting area was revised ahead of schedule this year
.
O'Brien senior analyst Rich Fields believes that the USDA may increase the corn planting area by 800,000 to 1.
2 million acres, and the sorghum planting area may increase by 1 million acres
.
Terry Rayleigh of Chicago Futures International believes that the corn planting area may increase by 500,000 to 1 million acres
.
IHS Markit, a private analyst firm, on Friday lowered its forecast for the average US corn yield in 2021 from 176.
5 bu/acre last month to 175.
4 bu/acre
.
However, the forecast for US corn production has been revised upwards from 14.
911 billion bu last month to 15.
091 billion bu
.
Another consulting firm, StoneX, raised the average US corn yield in 2021 from 176.
9 bu/acre to 177.
5 bu/acre
.
5 bu/acre last month to 175.
4 bu/acre
.
However, the forecast for US corn production has been revised upwards from 14.
911 billion bu last month to 15.
091 billion bu
.
Another consulting firm, StoneX, raised the average US corn yield in 2021 from 176.
9 bu/acre to 177.
5 bu/acre
.