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Global feed market: the cost of chemical fertilizers soars, so that next year's corn planting area will be more variable

 Last Update: 2021-10-19
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on October 17: In the week ending October 15, 2021, the global feed market prices fell, mainly because the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's October supply and demand report was negative, and the advancement of the U.
S.
corn harvest brought seasonal pressure; and this At the same time, the tight energy supply has pushed up the price of natural gas, which has led to a substantial increase in the cost of fertilizers, which will bring new variables to the prospects of next year's spring planting
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures fell 4.
75 cents, or 0.
9%, to close at 525.
75 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 597.
25 cents per bus, down 8.
25 cents or 1.
4% from a week ago
.
The November 2021 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange closed at about 245.
75 Euros/ton, down 4.
25 Euros or 1.
7% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$242/ton, down US$5 or 2% from a week ago
.
The January corn futures settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan or 2.
7% from a week ago
.

International crude oil futures continued to rise this week.
Among them, the price of Brent crude oil hit a three-year high.
Because of the tight global energy supply and demand, high natural gas prices may prompt large power users to switch to crude oil, pushing crude oil prices to record highs
.
On Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) November contract was quoted at 82.
28 yuan/barrel, up 3.
7% from a week ago, rising for the eighth consecutive week and the highest since 2014 Closing price
.
The global benchmark December Brent crude oil futures closed at US$84.
86 per barrel, up 3% from a week ago, and the fifth consecutive week of gains
.

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
95 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises US corn supply expectations

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's October supply and demand report showed that the US corn production in the 2021/22 season was raised to 15.
019 billion bucks (38149 million tons), higher than the 14.
996 billion bucks predicted in September, and higher than the 14.
111 billion bucks in the previous year
.
Yield was raised to 176.
5 bu/acre, higher than the September forecast of 176.
3 bu/acre; the forecast value of US corn exports was raised to 2.
5 billion bu, higher than last month’s forecast of 2.
475 billion bu
.
The ending stocks of corn have been raised to 1.
5 billion bucks, higher than the 1.
408 billion bucks predicted last month, and 21.
4% higher than the 2020/21 ending stocks of 1.
236 billion bucks
.
The average corn farm price in 2021/22 is expected to be US$5.
45/Bu, which is consistent with last month’s forecast and higher than the previous year’s US$4.
53
.

　　The U.
S.
sorghum production in 2021/22 is expected to be 471 million cats, higher than the 454 million cats predicted last month, and a substantial increase of 26.
3% over the previous year, due to higher yields
.
The export data remained unchanged at 320 million bu
.
Due to the upward revision of production data, the ending stocks of US sorghum for the year of 2021/22 are expected to be 37 million cats, which is higher than the 32 million tons forecast last month and a significant increase of 85% year-on-year
.
Due to the increase in supply, the average price of sorghum farms is expected to be US$5.
45 per cat, which is lower than the US$5.
85 forecast last month, but still higher than the US$5.
04 of the previous year
.

　　The global corn output in 2021/22 is expected to be 1.
19822 million tons, higher than the forecast of 1.
197.
7 billion tons last month, an increase of 7.
4% year-on-year.
The forecast data of corn output in Argentina remains unchanged at 53 million tons
.
Brazil’s corn production forecast remains unchanged at 118 million tons
.
The forecast of corn production in Russia has been revised down from 15.
5 million tons to 15 million tons
.
Ukraine’s corn production forecast has been revised down from 39 million tons to 38 million tons
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture maintains China's corn production forecast unchanged

　　In the US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report, the forecast value of China's corn production for 2021/22 remains unchanged at 273 million tons, and the forecast value of China's corn imports remains unchanged at 26 million tons
.

　　However, in the monthly supply and demand report this week, the Chinese government reduced China’s corn output in 2021/22 to 271 million tons, which was a decrease of 850,000 tons from September, because the continuous rain in North China resulted in the loss of yield and quality
.
The average yield of corn in China has been lowered to 6.
35 tons per hectare, which is lower than the 6.
37 tons per hectare predicted last month.

　　U.
S.
corn harvest is 40% complete

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of October 10, the corn harvest in the United States was 41% completed, compared to 29% a week ago, 39% in the same period last year, and the five-year average progress was 31%
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending October 7, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net corn sales were 1,039,900 tons, a decrease of 18% from last week, but an increase of 85% from the four-week average
.
So far in 2021/22, the total US corn export sales have reached 27,621,100 tons, an increase of 4.
2% over the same period of the previous year
.

　　Argentina encourages priority export of stale corn

　　In Argentina, as of October 13, the corn planting progress in the 2021/22 season reached 23.
2%
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects that this year’s corn production will reach a record 55 million tons, of which farmers have pre-sold 38.
5 million tons, because farmers are eager to lock in high international corn prices, and high inflation pushes up corn planting Cost
.
The 2020/21 Argentine corn export season has ended, and the registered export volume is 38.
6 million tons
.

　　However, the Argentine government announced a policy this week to give priority to the export of corn that has already been harvested
.
The farm organization stated that the policy will put downward pressure on corn planting this season
.
Farmers said the government did this to suppress food inflation before the November congressional elections
.
The current annualized rate of inflation in Argentina is 52.
5%, and consumer prices rose by 3.
5% in September alone
.
Esteban Copati, chief analyst at the Buenos Aires Exchange, said that many growers have already made planting decisions for 2021/22
.
It's a bit late to change my mind now
.

　　Brazil’s corn exports fell in October, and the next year’s corn output is expected to increase substantially

　　On October 13th, the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association ANEC issued a report, estimating that Brazil will export 1.
969 million tons of corn in October, which is lower than the 2.
547 million tons exported in September
.
If the forecast becomes a reality, corn exports from January to October this year will reach 14.
648 million tons
.

　　From January to September this year, Brazil exported 12.
677 million tons of corn, which was lower than the 20,033,000 tons in the same period last year
.
This is mainly due to the sharp reduction in corn production in Brazil in 2020/21 due to drought and frost damage
.

　　According to consulting firm AgRural, as of October 7, Brazil's first season corn planting progress reached 38%, 5 percentage points higher than 33% a week ago, but still slightly lower than 39% in the same period last year
.

　　The U.
S.
Agricultural Counselor predicts this week that Brazil’s maize production in 2021/22 (October-September) will reach 118 million tons, which is 40% higher than the 85 million tons that was reduced by drought in the previous year, as the yield will reach 5.
65 tons per hectare.
, And the planting area is expected to increase by 5%; next year’s corn exports will surge to 43 million tons, higher than the 19 million tons in 2020/21
.

　　Fertilizer crisis may lead to changes in corn planting area

　　Global natural gas prices have skyrocketed this year due to increased demand, low inventories, and tight supply of natural gas in Russia.
This has not only led to support for the prices of energy products, including crude oil, but also nitrogen-based fertilizers using natural gas as raw materials.
Rising because some manufacturers have difficulty digesting the rising cost of natural gas
.

　　France AgriMer, an agricultural office under the French Ministry of Agriculture, said on Wednesday that due to price spikes and tight fertilizer supplies, some farmers may switch from planting corn to other crops that rely less on chemical fertilizers, such as spring barley or sunflower seeds, in the spring of next year
.
In Europe, fertilizer prices have more than tripled in the past year, resulting in farmers’ fertilizer costs reaching between 300 and 350 euros per hectare, compared to 150 euros per hectare last year
.

Price USDA U.
S.
Corn

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
95 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises US corn supply expectations

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture maintains China's corn production forecast unchanged

　　U.
S.
corn harvest is 40% complete

　　Argentina encourages priority export of stale corn

　　Brazil’s corn exports fell in October, and the next year’s corn output is expected to increase substantially

　　Fertilizer crisis may lead to changes in corn planting area

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