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Dry weather threatened South American corn production prospects; high production costs might restrict US corn planting scale; strong rise in international crude oil futures also helped boost corn in bio- demand outlook for the fuel industry
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2021 corn futures rose approximately 12.
5 cents or 2.
1% from a week ago to close at 605.
75 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 683.
75 cents per cat, up 78 cents or 1.
3% from a week ago
.
The March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange reported approximately 244 euros/ton, up 3.
5 euros or 1.
5% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$269/ton, up US$12 or 4.
7% from a week ago
.
The March corn futures settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2,660 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
5 cents or 2.
1% from a week ago to close at 605.
75 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 683.
75 cents per cat, up 78 cents or 1.
3% from a week ago
.
The March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange reported approximately 244 euros/ton, up 3.
5 euros or 1.
5% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$269/ton, up US$12 or 4.
7% from a week ago
.
The March corn futures settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2,660 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
The rise in the international crude oil futures market this week has also provided positive support for the corn market, because it means an improved outlook for biofuel demand, and corn is the main raw material for bioethanol in the United States
.
On Thursday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) February West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) contract closed at $73.
79 per barrel, up 4.
1% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark Brent February crude oil futures closed at $76.
85 per barrel, up 4.
5% from a week ago
.
.
On Thursday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) February West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) contract closed at $73.
79 per barrel, up 4.
1% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark Brent February crude oil futures closed at $76.
85 per barrel, up 4.
5% from a week ago
.
The US dollar index closed at 96.
06 points this week, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
06 points this week, down 0.
6% from a week ago
.
Unfavorable weather causes many agencies to lower South American corn production expectations
Like the oilseed market, the focus of attention in the feed market this week is the weather conditions in South America
.
With the La Niña phenomenon for the second consecutive year, drought in southern Brazil and Argentina has threatened the growth of local corn crops, prompting many agencies to lower their forecasts for corn production in Brazil
.
Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil’s corn production in 2021/22 will reach 116.
08 million tons, which is about 3 million tons lower than the previous forecast, because the drought in the southern region affects the first season of corn
.
The Rural Economics Institute of Parana State (DERAL) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for the first season of corn production in Parana State from 4.
2 million tons to 3.
7 million tons due to insufficient rainfall
.
IHS Markit, a private analyst firm, predicts that Brazil’s first-season corn production in 2021/22 will be 28.
3 million tons, which is 1.
2 million tons lower than the previous forecast due to the dry weather and the decline in yield potential
.
.
With the La Niña phenomenon for the second consecutive year, drought in southern Brazil and Argentina has threatened the growth of local corn crops, prompting many agencies to lower their forecasts for corn production in Brazil
.
Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil’s corn production in 2021/22 will reach 116.
08 million tons, which is about 3 million tons lower than the previous forecast, because the drought in the southern region affects the first season of corn
.
The Rural Economics Institute of Parana State (DERAL) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for the first season of corn production in Parana State from 4.
2 million tons to 3.
7 million tons due to insufficient rainfall
.
IHS Markit, a private analyst firm, predicts that Brazil’s first-season corn production in 2021/22 will be 28.
3 million tons, which is 1.
2 million tons lower than the previous forecast due to the dry weather and the decline in yield potential
.
Crops in southern Brazil are in desperate need of rain, but Argentine crops can wait a little longer
In the state of Parana in southern Brazil, 74% of the first crop of corn is between the pollination period and the grain filling period
.
In Rio Grande do Sul, 65% of corn is grown from pollination to grain filling
.
These crops can't wait for the rain to come again, they need rain now
.
In southern Argentina, you can boil for some more time, because only 66% of the corn has been planted, and the early crops have just begun to enter the pollination stage.
The progress is slower than normal because Argentine farmers with a long planting window postpone the planting, hope You can miss the dry period from December to February (which is also the La Nina active period), and plant corn in the late season to get better rainfall and soil moisture
.
.
In Rio Grande do Sul, 65% of corn is grown from pollination to grain filling
.
These crops can't wait for the rain to come again, they need rain now
.
In southern Argentina, you can boil for some more time, because only 66% of the corn has been planted, and the early crops have just begun to enter the pollination stage.
The progress is slower than normal because Argentine farmers with a long planting window postpone the planting, hope You can miss the dry period from December to February (which is also the La Nina active period), and plant corn in the late season to get better rainfall and soil moisture
.
However, weather models for the past two weeks show that the chances of good rainfall in these areas are not high
.
Weather models in Europe and the United States show that from now to December 31, it is almost completely dry, and the temperature will remain at more than 30 degrees Celsius during the same period, and the pressure of crop moisture will continue to increase
.
However, the weather model does indicate that a weather system will pass through Argentina and southern Brazil around New Year's Day and later, but the showers seem to be sporadic, and the hope of widespread and meaningful rainfall is still very slim
.
The simulation results of most models show that the rainfall during this period is less than 30 mm (1.
2 inches), and the rainfall in some isolated areas is up to about 50 mm (about 2 inches)
.
After the cold air front passes by, more distant weather models indicate that the weather will return to dryness again
.
At present, the chance of a high yield of soybeans and first-season corn in southern Brazil is out of reach
.
If the second crop of corn is planted immediately, the dry weather means that the soil moisture becomes worse
.
.
Weather models in Europe and the United States show that from now to December 31, it is almost completely dry, and the temperature will remain at more than 30 degrees Celsius during the same period, and the pressure of crop moisture will continue to increase
.
However, the weather model does indicate that a weather system will pass through Argentina and southern Brazil around New Year's Day and later, but the showers seem to be sporadic, and the hope of widespread and meaningful rainfall is still very slim
.
The simulation results of most models show that the rainfall during this period is less than 30 mm (1.
2 inches), and the rainfall in some isolated areas is up to about 50 mm (about 2 inches)
.
After the cold air front passes by, more distant weather models indicate that the weather will return to dryness again
.
At present, the chance of a high yield of soybeans and first-season corn in southern Brazil is out of reach
.
If the second crop of corn is planted immediately, the dry weather means that the soil moisture becomes worse
.
U.
S.
corn planting area may decrease next year
S.
corn planting area may decrease next year
The outlook for the scale of corn planting in the United States in 2022 is still unclear, but most institutions believe that the corn planting area may be reduced because of high production costs
.
The United States Grain Council (USGC) recently stated that due to the high cost of production materials such as chemical fertilizers, the corn planted area may be reduced next year
.
The cost of corn planting in the United States in 2022 is about US$4.
73 per cat, which is the highest level in history
.
So far, the biggest increase in cost has been chemical fertilizers, and the price level of chemical fertilizers in spring is currently unknown
.
.
The United States Grain Council (USGC) recently stated that due to the high cost of production materials such as chemical fertilizers, the corn planted area may be reduced next year
.
The cost of corn planting in the United States in 2022 is about US$4.
73 per cat, which is the highest level in history
.
So far, the biggest increase in cost has been chemical fertilizers, and the price level of chemical fertilizers in spring is currently unknown
.
U.
S.
corn exports slow down, and China is absent from the U.
S.
corn market
S.
corn exports slow down, and China is absent from the U.
S.
corn market
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending December 16, 2021, US corn sales for 2021/22 were 982,900 tons, which was 50% lower than last week and 29% lower than the four-week average
.
So far this year, US corn export sales totaled 39.
494 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.
5%
.
.
So far this year, US corn export sales totaled 39.
494 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.
5%
.
The US has sold 12.
21 million tons of corn to China so far in 2021/22, which is only 5.
6% higher than the same period last year, which is lower than the 5.
7% increase in the previous week
.
The actual shipment volume was only 1.
88 million tons, which was far lower than the 4.
25 million tons in the same period last year
.
21 million tons of corn to China so far in 2021/22, which is only 5.
6% higher than the same period last year, which is lower than the 5.
7% increase in the previous week
.
The actual shipment volume was only 1.
88 million tons, which was far lower than the 4.
25 million tons in the same period last year
.
Ukraine's high corn yield boosts export prospects
While China is absent from US corn, it is actively purchasing Ukrainian corn to promote the growth of Ukrainian corn exports
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of December 10, Ukraine’s corn exports in 2021/22 reached 7.
763 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.
088 million tons
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Ukraine’s corn output in 2021/22 will reach a record 40 million tons, an increase of 32% year-on-year; Ukrainian corn exports will reach 32.
5 million tons, an increase of 36.
2% year-on-year
.
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of December 10, Ukraine’s corn exports in 2021/22 reached 7.
763 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.
088 million tons
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Ukraine’s corn output in 2021/22 will reach a record 40 million tons, an increase of 32% year-on-year; Ukrainian corn exports will reach 32.
5 million tons, an increase of 36.
2% year-on-year
.
The corn harvest in Ukraine is now nearing completion
.
The reason for the high corn yield in Ukraine is that the high price of corn encourages farmers to plant corn, and the corn planting area hits the highest level in history
.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of December 22, Ukraine’s corn export volume for the 2021/22 season has reached 9.
062 million tons, an increase of 8.
7% year-on-year
.
.
The reason for the high corn yield in Ukraine is that the high price of corn encourages farmers to plant corn, and the corn planting area hits the highest level in history
.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, as of December 22, Ukraine’s corn export volume for the 2021/22 season has reached 9.
062 million tons, an increase of 8.
7% year-on-year
.
