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The main reason was that the rapid spread of the delta mutant strain caused concerns about global economic development, crude oil and metals and other commodity markets.
There was a sharp decline, the U.
S.
dollar rose sharply, the results of fieldwork in the central and western regions were good, and corn export sales were sluggish
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures fell 36 cents, or 6.
3%, to close at 537 cents/po
.
The quotation of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn fell by 39.
5 cents, or 5.
9%, from a week ago to close at 633.
75 cents per cat
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange reported about 216 euros/ton, down 5.
75 euros or 2.
6% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$238/ton, down US$6 or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at 2,522 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 2.
1% from a week ago
.
3%, to close at 537 cents/po
.
The quotation of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn fell by 39.
5 cents, or 5.
9%, from a week ago to close at 633.
75 cents per cat
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange reported about 216 euros/ton, down 5.
75 euros or 2.
6% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$238/ton, down US$6 or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at 2,522 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 2.
1% from a week ago
.
Epidemic concerns and Fed's shrinking balance sheet concerns have suppressed the decline of commodities
International crude oil futures fell this week, setting the biggest weekly decline in more than nine months, as investors worried that the spread of the delta mutant virus would slow down global fuel demand
.
On Friday, the October contract of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was quoted at 62.
32 yuan per barrel, down 8.
9% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark October Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.
18 per barrel, down 7.
66% from a week ago
.
The decline in crude oil also constitutes an indirect negative for corn, because it means that ethanol is less attractive, and corn is the main raw material for ethanol production in the United States
.
.
On Friday, the October contract of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was quoted at 62.
32 yuan per barrel, down 8.
9% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark October Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.
18 per barrel, down 7.
66% from a week ago
.
The decline in crude oil also constitutes an indirect negative for corn, because it means that ethanol is less attractive, and corn is the main raw material for ethanol production in the United States
.
The spread of the epidemic caused by the delta mutant virus also raises concerns about the impact on global food demand
.
In the United States, the increase in mutated virus cases may lead to a decrease in the number of people eating in restaurants
.
Many major U.
S.
cities have restored the requirement to wear masks
.
In addition, food prices in the United States rose by 31% in July , which also raised concerns about rising food inflation and declining demand
.
.
In the United States, the increase in mutated virus cases may lead to a decrease in the number of people eating in restaurants
.
Many major U.
S.
cities have restored the requirement to wear masks
.
In addition, food prices in the United States rose by 31% in July , which also raised concerns about rising food inflation and declining demand
.
From a macro perspective, as the minutes of the Fed’s meeting show that US Federal Reserve officials are considering reducing monetary stimulus measures this year, this will help boost the U.
S.
dollar exchange rate to a nine-month high
.
The market is increasingly worried about the Fed's hawkish stance, which has led to a decline in investor risk appetite, which directly shakes the re-inflation trading logic that has supported the continuous rise of commodities in the past year
.
Markets ranging from iron ore, copper, crude oil to grains have plummeted .
On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
46 points, up 1% from a week ago
.
S.
dollar exchange rate to a nine-month high
.
The market is increasingly worried about the Fed's hawkish stance, which has led to a decline in investor risk appetite, which directly shakes the re-inflation trading logic that has supported the continuous rise of commodities in the past year
.
Markets ranging from iron ore, copper, crude oil to grains have plummeted .
On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 93.
46 points, up 1% from a week ago
.
Midwestern inspection shows that corn production may be higher than USDA expects
This week, American farm futures magazine Pro Farmer organized staff to conduct an annual field trip to the Midwest
.
After four days of fieldwork, the investigators estimated that the US corn output this year was 15.
116 billion bucks, 366 million bucks higher than the 14.
75 billion bucks estimated by the US Department of Agriculture in August
.
The investigators estimated that the yield per acre of corn was 177 bushes per acre, higher than the 174.
6 bushes/acre predicted by the US Department of Agriculture
.
ProFarmer's inspection confirmed the argument circulating in Chicago circles over the past few weeks that yields in the eastern planting belt may hit a record high, offsetting the decline in yields in the western planting belt
.
.
After four days of fieldwork, the investigators estimated that the US corn output this year was 15.
116 billion bucks, 366 million bucks higher than the 14.
75 billion bucks estimated by the US Department of Agriculture in August
.
The investigators estimated that the yield per acre of corn was 177 bushes per acre, higher than the 174.
6 bushes/acre predicted by the US Department of Agriculture
.
ProFarmer's inspection confirmed the argument circulating in Chicago circles over the past few weeks that yields in the eastern planting belt may hit a record high, offsetting the decline in yields in the western planting belt
.
Let me mention a recent report by Arnade, Hoffman, and Effland, the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture
.
Their research found that the output data in the US Department of Agriculture's August and September supply and demand reports had a greater impact on the trend of corn futures than those reported in previous months
.
The August forecast narrowed the gap between the corn futures price and the harvest price by 1.
11%; the September report further narrowed the gap between the corn price and the harvest price by 3.
56%
.
.
Their research found that the output data in the US Department of Agriculture's August and September supply and demand reports had a greater impact on the trend of corn futures than those reported in previous months
.
The August forecast narrowed the gap between the corn futures price and the harvest price by 1.
11%; the September report further narrowed the gap between the corn price and the harvest price by 3.
56%
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that in the week ending August 15, the proportion of US corn entering the maturity period was 73%, and the five-year average over the same period was 68%
.
The corn excellent and good rate was 62%, lower than 64% a week ago and 69% in the same period last year
.
Approximately 37% of US corn farmland was in moderate to severe drought that week, up from 35% a week ago
.
Rainfall occurred in parts of the Midwestern United States this week, and there will be more rainfall from the weekend to the beginning of next week, which is conducive to the final growth of crops
.
.
The corn excellent and good rate was 62%, lower than 64% a week ago and 69% in the same period last year
.
Approximately 37% of US corn farmland was in moderate to severe drought that week, up from 35% a week ago
.
Rainfall occurred in parts of the Midwestern United States this week, and there will be more rainfall from the weekend to the beginning of next week, which is conducive to the final growth of crops
.
The US government’s meteorological agency predicted on Friday that Tropical Storm Henry will become a hurricane on Saturday, posing a flood threat to the North Atlantic region; in addition, a cold air forward will bring showers and thunderstorms to the central region of the United States
.
Rainfall in the northern Midwest and the northern plains may reach 1 to 3 inches
.
From the 25th to the 29th, there was more rainfall in the lower Mississippi area
.
.
Rainfall in the northern Midwest and the northern plains may reach 1 to 3 inches
.
From the 25th to the 29th, there was more rainfall in the lower Mississippi area
.
Export demand is unremarkable, buyers wait for prices to fall
Although Brazil’s corn production continues to decline, the pace of US corn exports has not accelerated significantly.
In fact, some market participants are beginning to worry that the US corn export demand in 2020/21 may be lower than that in 2020/21
.
Since June, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has reduced corn production in the United States and Brazil by 32.
5 million tons, but the December corn futures price in Chicago has dropped from $5.
94 to around $5.
32
.
From a technical point of view, it has fallen below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day MA
.
As the technical side turns empty, buyers are not eager to enter the market to purchase, but wait for prices to fall further
.
From the analysis of seasonal factors, corn futures also tend to fall
.
In the past three years, corn futures have all made lows in August or early September
.
In fact, some market participants are beginning to worry that the US corn export demand in 2020/21 may be lower than that in 2020/21
.
Since June, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has reduced corn production in the United States and Brazil by 32.
5 million tons, but the December corn futures price in Chicago has dropped from $5.
94 to around $5.
32
.
From a technical point of view, it has fallen below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day MA
.
As the technical side turns empty, buyers are not eager to enter the market to purchase, but wait for prices to fall further
.
From the analysis of seasonal factors, corn futures also tend to fall
.
In the past three years, corn futures have all made lows in August or early September
.
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending August 12, 2021, US 2020/21 net corn sales were 216,500 tons, a decrease of 43% from last week, but higher than the four-week average
.
Corn export sales in 2021/22 were 510,000 tons, slightly lower than the 601,800 tons a week ago
.
The total US corn export sales in 2020/21 was 70.
32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%
.
.
Corn export sales in 2021/22 were 510,000 tons, slightly lower than the 601,800 tons a week ago
.
The total US corn export sales in 2020/21 was 70.
32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%
.
Biofuel demand may decrease
According to media reports on Friday, the U.
S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend to the White House that the compulsory blending of biofuels in 2021 be reduced to a level lower than 2020, so that the compulsory use and actual production will be consistent
.
In recent times, oil giants to food industry giants have urged the Biden government to reduce the use of biofuels, because in the context of the epidemic, the decline in fuel demand has led to an increase in blending credit prices and higher compliance costs for refineries; agricultural production of fuels It also leads to higher food costs
.
Stimulated by this news, soybean oil futures fell more than 5% on Friday, and corn futures were also under pressure
.
S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend to the White House that the compulsory blending of biofuels in 2021 be reduced to a level lower than 2020, so that the compulsory use and actual production will be consistent
.
In recent times, oil giants to food industry giants have urged the Biden government to reduce the use of biofuels, because in the context of the epidemic, the decline in fuel demand has led to an increase in blending credit prices and higher compliance costs for refineries; agricultural production of fuels It also leads to higher food costs
.
Stimulated by this news, soybean oil futures fell more than 5% on Friday, and corn futures were also under pressure
.
Brazil's corn exports accelerated in August
In South America, Brazil's second-season corn harvest has already passed half of the work, the market supply has increased, and the pace of corn exports has accelerated
.
According to the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil’s corn exports in August 2021 are expected to reach 4.
527 million tons, higher than last week’s forecast of 3.
987 million tons
.
Because as the second-season corn harvest progresses, the corn supply increases
.
However, the increased corn export volume is still lower than the 6.
68 million tons in August 2020, because the second season of this year's corn output has fallen sharply due to drought and frost
.
According to data from the consulting agency AgRural, the second season corn harvest in Brazil was 58% completed, down from 70% in the same period last year
.
Brazil’s total corn production this year will be less than 90 million tons due to unfavorable weather
.
.
According to the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil’s corn exports in August 2021 are expected to reach 4.
527 million tons, higher than last week’s forecast of 3.
987 million tons
.
Because as the second-season corn harvest progresses, the corn supply increases
.
However, the increased corn export volume is still lower than the 6.
68 million tons in August 2020, because the second season of this year's corn output has fallen sharply due to drought and frost
.
According to data from the consulting agency AgRural, the second season corn harvest in Brazil was 58% completed, down from 70% in the same period last year
.
Brazil’s total corn production this year will be less than 90 million tons due to unfavorable weather
.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's corn imports in July 2021 were 2.
86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 213.
7%
.
From January to July 2021, China's corn imports reached 18.
16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 297.
5%
.
86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 213.
7%
.
From January to July 2021, China's corn imports reached 18.
16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 297.
5%
.
