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Global feed market: macro concerns vs. lower production, food prices have risen and fallen

 Last Update: 2022-09-30
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Food prices U.
S.
corn prices export ethanol

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about $6.
7675/Pu for December 2022, down 0.
1%
from a week ago.
The spot quote for the October shipment schedule of Meiwan 2 yellow corn was $7.
8675 per pu, up 0.
6% from a week ago; The November 2022 corn period on the EURONEXT exchange closed at around 338.
5 euros/mt, up 3.
2%
from a week ago.
Argentine corn on the upper river FOB quoted at $291/mt, down 2.
7%
from a week ago.
On Friday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a corn period of about 2,803 yuan / ton in November 2022, down 0.
4%
from a week ago.

International crude oil futures fell this week, mainly because the market feared a global recession, fuel demand cuts, and the rise in the US dollar also brought pressure
.
The Nov contract of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) on the New York Commodity Futures Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $78.
74/bbl, down 7.
1 percent
from a week ago.
The global benchmark November Brent crude futures were trading at $86.
15/bbl, down 5.
7%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 112.
962, up 3.
2%
from a week ago.

The U.
S.
rate hike and the rise in the U.
S.
dollar have put upside resistance on U.
S.
goods

The Fed announced its third consecutive 75 basis point hike on September 21 and said there would be more sharp rate hikes this year, putting resistance
on commodity prices.
Central bank aggressive rate hikes raise fears that the U.
S.
economy is moving toward a recession and will not be as shallow and prolonged as previously expected
.
Weakening investor risk appetite pushed the safe-haven dollar to a new 20-plus high, putting pressure on
U.
S.
stocks and all dollar-priced commodities.

The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has added uncertainty to the supply prospects of the Black Sea

Media reports on Tuesday that the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will hold a referendum
on joining the Russian Federation from September 23 to 27.
The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a national televised speech in which he said that he would take all measures to defend his territorial
integrity.
This marks no sign of an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the short term, and is likely to affect Ukrainian grain cultivation and exports in the coming year, and the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Export Corridor agreement, which expires in November, is also questionable, adding to supply-side concerns
.
Ukraine is the world's leading exporter
of corn.

The IGC lowered its global maize production forecast for 2022/23 by almost 11 million tonnes

In its September report, the International Cereals Council (IGC) lowered global maize production for 2022/23 to 1,167 million tonnes, down from last month's forecast of 1,178 million tonnes and down from 1,218 million tonnes
in 2021/22.
EU production was cut to 56.
2 million tonnes (59.
6 million tonnes last month; 70.
3 million tons last year), U.
S.
corn production was revised down to 354.
2 million tons (364.
7 million tons last month; 383.
9 million tons last
year).
At the same time, the IGC raised Ukrainian maize production to 29.
9 million tons (27.
7 million tons last month; 42.
1 million tons last year).

The global maize export forecast for 2022/23 was revised down by 1 million tonnes from the previous month to 172.
3 million tonnes, down from 179.
2 million tonnes
in the previous year.
Among them, U.
S.
corn exports were lowered to 57.
8 million tons (60.
3 million tons last month; Last year 62.
9 million tons
).
But Ukrainian corn exports are forecast to increase to 17 million tons (15.
5 million tons last month; Last year 23.
5 million tons
.

The IGC lowered its global maize inventory forecast to 262.
1 million tonnes (264.
7 million tonnes; 284.
7 million tonnes) as U.
S.
inventories were lowered to 31 million tonnes (34.
3 million tonnes; 38.
7 million tonnes) and Brazil's stocks were lowered to 7.
5 million tonnes (7.
6 million tonnes; 6.
1 million tonnes).

But Ukrainian corn stocks were raised to 8.
9 million tons (8.
4 million tons; 6.
9 million tons
).

The drought in Argentina has delayed the planting of corn

In Argentina, the main corn-growing region is suffering from its driest conditions in nearly three decades, potentially forcing planting to be delayed until after
the traditional mid-September.

In Brazil, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) lowered its corn export forecast for September to 7.
618 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes from a week's forecast, meaning September exports could not reach record levels
.

In the Brazilian state of Paraná, the second crop of maize is 99%
complete.
The first maize planting in 2022/23 was 22%
complete.
The first season of maize in Rio Grande do Sul is 35%
complete.

The U.
S.
corn harvest is 7% complete, and the weather over the next two weeks favors sowing advancement

USDA Crops Weekly reported that as of September 18, the U.
S.
corn yield was 52 percent, down 1 percent from a week ago and 59 percent in the year-ago quarter, and analysts expected the good rate to be flat
before the report.
The corn harvest was 7% complete, 5% last week, 9% in the same period last year, and 8%
on the five-year average.
Analysts expect the harvest to be 10%
complete.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Friday predicted seasonal dry weather in much of the corn growing belt between September 23 and September 29, with temperatures likely to be higher than normal
in the south-central and southeast.
Maxar said that the rainfall in the central United States will be lower than normal in the next 15 days, which will favor the drying and early harvest
of the corn crop.

U.
S.
corn export sales were sluggish, only half of what it was in the same period last year

USDA weekly export sales data shows that for the week ended September 15, 2022, U.
S.
net corn sales in 2022/23 were 182,000 metric tons, well below last week's 583,000 tons and below market expectations
.

In the first week of 2022/23, total U.
S.
corn export sales (both shipped and unshipped) were 12,483,700 tonnes, half
of the 24,945,700 tonnes in the same period last year.
Among them, the total sales of corn to China was 3.
3668 million tons, down about 71.
7%
from 11.
9054 million tons in the same period last year.
At present, the export price of corn in Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina is lower than that of the United States
.

Chinese customs data showed cereal imports from January to August at 39.
7 million tonnes, down 12.
4 percent
from 45.
3 million tonnes in the same period last year.
Among them, corn imports were 16.
9 million tons, down 21.
0%
from 21.
4 million tons in the same period last year.

USDA quarterly inventory report

The USDA will release its quarterly inventory report
on September 30.
Analysts expect U.
S.
corn stocks to be close to 1.
5 billion potons on Sept.
1, compared to 4.
35 billion potons on June 1 and 1.
235 billion potons
on Sept.
1, 2021.

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