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Global feed market: early harvest shows lower-than-expected yields, boosting corn prices

 Last Update: 2021-09-28
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on September 19: In the week ending September 17, 2021, prices in the global food market have increased
.
The unsatisfactory yield of early corn in the United States has boosted corn prices
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures rose 9.
75 cents, or 1.
88%, to close at 527.
25 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 602.
75 cents per cat, up 17.
75 cents or 3.
03% from a week ago
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange closed at approximately 218 euros/ton, an increase of 6.
5 euros or 3.
07% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$245/ton, an increase of US$9 or 3.
81% from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at 2,437 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 0.
89% from a week ago
.

　　Since the US Department of Agriculture released the September supply and demand report, corn futures have generally shown a rebound trend.
Although this supply and demand report is not profitable, the lack of willingness to short sell has triggered short covering and boosted prices
.
The market generally feels that corn futures are a bit oversold
.
The results of the early corn harvest in the United States also support higher prices, as preliminary yield reports indicate lower-than-expected corn yields
.

　　The September US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report raised the increase in corn supply for 2021/22, and consumption has also increased
.
As far as 2020/21 is concerned, the US corn exports and ethanol consumption are lowered, leading to an increase in corn ending stocks, leading to an increase in beginning stocks in 2021/22
.
Based on the latest data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the United States Department of Agriculture, the United States Department of Agriculture has increased the corn planting area in the United States for the year of 2021/22 by 243,000 hectares (600,000 acres)
.
In the first yield estimate based on objective surveys, the USDA raised the corn yield in 2021 by 1.
7 bu/acre to 176.
6 bu/acre (11.
09 tons/ha), close to the highest level in history
.

　　In terms of demand, due to increased harvests and expected declines in prices, the USDA has increased its feed and other consumption by 75 million cattails (1.
905 million tons) in the 2021/22 season
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has also raised corn exports for the period of 2021/22, but due to the increase in production, the ending stocks of the 2021/22 period have been raised by 166 million cattails (4.
22 million tons)
.
The inventory usage ratio also increased to 10.
3%, higher than the 9.
5% estimated in August
.
The USDA lowered its corn farm price forecast by USD 11.
81/ton (30 cents/bus) to USD 214.
56/ton (USD 5.
45/bus)
.

　　In addition, the USDA also increased the sorghum sown and harvested area in 2021 in the September supply and demand report, while lowering the yield by 1.
1 bushes/acre
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has increased the feed and other usage of sorghum, but maintained its export forecast unchanged
.
The ending inventory increased slightly, and the ending inventory usage ratio rose from 4.
4% to 7.
3%
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture also lowered the forecast value of sorghum farm prices for the 2021/22 season by $11.
81/ton (30 cents/bus) to $230.
30/ton ($5.
85/bus)
.

　　In terms of global supply and demand, due to the increase in China and Argentina's production, which offset the decrease in Russia's production, the US Department of Agriculture has increased the global corn production in 2021/22 by 11.
6 million tons
.
Despite the increase in China's corn production, the premium of China's corn prices (especially in the south) relative to global corn is high, so the import forecast value remains unchanged
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has increased the global corn ending stocks for the year of 2021/22 by 12.
9 million tons, bringing the ending stock usage ratio to 21.
6%
.

　　Since the US Department of Agriculture released its September supply and demand report, early yields in the Midwestern region of the United States have been lower than expected, especially in the eastern corn belt.
This has reignited discussions about possible lower corn production in 2021, helping to support higher prices in the future.

.
But it’s worth noting that the crop progress report released on Monday showed that only 4% of the corn was harvested, 1% behind the five-year average
.
Therefore, it is too early to accurately determine the output
.
The harvest progress this weekend should be very strong, as the weather in most of the Midwest is warm and dry
.

Price U.
S.
Corn

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