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Weather forecasts indicate that widespread rains are likely to occur in major South American producing areas over the weekend, helping to prevent a further decline in corn yield potential and reducing the weather risk premium in corn futures prices
.
However, crude oil futures continued to rise strongly, helping to boost the outlook for biofuel demand and indirectly supporting U.
S.
corn prices , limiting the decline in corn
.
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2021 corn futures closed at 596.
25 cents per bush, down 10.
5 cents or 1.
6% from a week ago, and the US Gulf No.
2 yellow corn was quoted at 685.
25 cents per bush.
It was down 4 cents or 0.
6% from a week ago
.
March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €239/tonne, down €4.
25, or 1.
7%, from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $270/ton, unchanged from a week ago
.
March corn futures settled at 2,691 yuan/ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, up 51 yuan or 1.
9 percent from a week ago
.
25 cents per bush, down 10.
5 cents or 1.
6% from a week ago, and the US Gulf No.
2 yellow corn was quoted at 685.
25 cents per bush.
It was down 4 cents or 0.
6% from a week ago
.
March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €239/tonne, down €4.
25, or 1.
7%, from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $270/ton, unchanged from a week ago
.
March corn futures settled at 2,691 yuan/ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, up 51 yuan or 1.
9 percent from a week ago
.
This week, international crude oil futures closed higher for the fourth consecutive week, hitting the highest level in two and a half months, mainly because of expected tight crude oil supply and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine
.
On Friday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled at $83.
82 a barrel, up 6.
3% from a week earlier
.
March Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, settled at $86.
06 a barrel, up 5.
4% from a week earlier
.
Crude oil markets help improve ethanol demand, and nearly a third of U.
S.
corn production is used to make ethanol
.
.
On Friday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled at $83.
82 a barrel, up 6.
3% from a week earlier
.
March Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, settled at $86.
06 a barrel, up 5.
4% from a week earlier
.
Crude oil markets help improve ethanol demand, and nearly a third of U.
S.
corn production is used to make ethanol
.
On Friday, ICE's U.
S.
dollar index closed at 95.
17, down 0.
6% from a week earlier
.
S.
dollar index closed at 95.
17, down 0.
6% from a week earlier
.
South American rain forecast triggers corn market correction
It is currently summer in the southern hemisphere, with temperatures approaching or exceeding all-time highs in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil, with temperatures reaching 44 degrees Celsius in parts of Uruguay, 45 degrees Celsius in parts of Argentina and 45 degrees Celsius in parts of Paraguay.
The temperature reached 45.
6 degrees Celsius
.
Weather forecasts on Thursday showed widespread rains could hit Argentina and dry southern Brazil this weekend, helping to ease pressure on crops and prevent further declines in yield potential
.
The Argentine corn crop has entered a critical growing season and is therefore extremely sensitive to weather changes
.
The Global Meteorological Group said weather models showed Argentina may experience rain in the second half of January, helping to ease the pressure on crop shortages, but a high-pressure ridge could reappear later, meaning the weather could be drier in early February
.
The temperature reached 45.
6 degrees Celsius
.
Weather forecasts on Thursday showed widespread rains could hit Argentina and dry southern Brazil this weekend, helping to ease pressure on crops and prevent further declines in yield potential
.
The Argentine corn crop has entered a critical growing season and is therefore extremely sensitive to weather changes
.
The Global Meteorological Group said weather models showed Argentina may experience rain in the second half of January, helping to ease the pressure on crop shortages, but a high-pressure ridge could reappear later, meaning the weather could be drier in early February
.
More agencies lower South American corn production forecasts
More agencies have lowered their forecasts for global and South American corn production over the past week
.
The January report released by the International Grains Council showed that the global corn production forecast for 2021/22 was lowered by 5 million tons to 1.
207 billion tons, due to lower production data in South America, of which Argentina corn production was lowered from 63.
3 million tons to 61 million tons, Brazil corn production is lowered to 112.
9 million from 117.
4 million
.
.
The January report released by the International Grains Council showed that the global corn production forecast for 2021/22 was lowered by 5 million tons to 1.
207 billion tons, due to lower production data in South America, of which Argentina corn production was lowered from 63.
3 million tons to 61 million tons, Brazil corn production is lowered to 112.
9 million from 117.
4 million
.
The Rosario Grain Exchange forecast Argentina's corn production in 2021/22 at 48 million tonnes, well below an earlier forecast of 56 million tonnes due to drought and heat in key agricultural areas last month
.
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's January supply and demand report showed Argentina's corn production was lowered to 54 million tons, down from a forecast of 54.
5 million tons in the previous month, as dry weather in Argentina's main producing areas in December reduced the yield potential of early-sown corn
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's January supply and demand report showed Argentina's corn production was lowered to 54 million tons, down from a forecast of 54.
5 million tons in the previous month, as dry weather in Argentina's main producing areas in December reduced the yield potential of early-sown corn
.
In its January supply and demand report, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered Brazil's corn production for 2021/22 to 115 million tons, down 3 million tons from December
.
Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corporation (CONAB) this week lowered Brazil's corn production in 2021/22 by 4.
3 million tons to 112.
95 million from its forecast of 117.
2 million a month ago, but still up 29.
7 percent from 2020/21.
.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered Brazil's corn production for 2021/22 to 115 million tons, down 3 million tons from December
.
Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corporation (CONAB) this week lowered Brazil's corn production in 2021/22 by 4.
3 million tons to 112.
95 million from its forecast of 117.
2 million a month ago, but still up 29.
7 percent from 2020/21.
.
Private consultancy AgroConsult released a report that lowered Brazil's first-season corn production for the 2021/22 season to 24.
5 million tons, down 16 percent from its earlier forecast
.
However, Brazil's total corn production is likely to rise to 119.
4 million tons, as second-crop corn plantings after February are expected to increase
.
5 million tons, down 16 percent from its earlier forecast
.
However, Brazil's total corn production is likely to rise to 119.
4 million tons, as second-crop corn plantings after February are expected to increase
.
USDA raises 2021 U.
S.
corn production and ending stocks
S.
corn production and ending stocks
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture released its final production report on Wednesday, raising the U.
S.
corn production for the fall 2021 harvest by 53 million bushels, as harvested area was raised by 300,000 acres
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimated 2021/22 U.
S.
corn production at 15.
115 billion bushels, which would also be the second-highest on record and above analysts’ expectations of 15.
069 billion bushels
.
S.
Department of Agriculture released its final production report on Wednesday, raising the U.
S.
corn production for the fall 2021 harvest by 53 million bushels, as harvested area was raised by 300,000 acres
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture estimated 2021/22 U.
S.
corn production at 15.
115 billion bushels, which would also be the second-highest on record and above analysts’ expectations of 15.
069 billion bushels
.
The USDA raised its end-August 2022 U.
S.
corn ending stocks to 1.
540 billion bushels, up from a forecast of 1.
493 billion in December and up from 1.
235 billion a year earlier
.
Before the report, analysts expected U.
S.
corn ending stocks to be lowered to 1.
472 billion bushels
.
S.
corn ending stocks to 1.
540 billion bushels, up from a forecast of 1.
493 billion in December and up from 1.
235 billion a year earlier
.
Before the report, analysts expected U.
S.
corn ending stocks to be lowered to 1.
472 billion bushels
.
U.
S.
corn exports still lag behind, export target lowered
S.
corn exports still lag behind, export target lowered
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ended January 6, 2022, net sales of corn in the United States for 2021/22 were 457,700 tons, 79% higher than last week, but 59% lower than the four-week average.
%
.
So far this year, U.
S.
corn export sales totaled 41.
4546 million tons, down 8.
7 percent year-on-year
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ended January 6, 2022, net sales of corn in the United States for 2021/22 were 457,700 tons, 79% higher than last week, but 59% lower than the four-week average.
%
.
So far this year, U.
S.
corn export sales totaled 41.
4546 million tons, down 8.
7 percent year-on-year
.
Due to the sluggish pace of U.
S.
corn exports, the USDA this month lowered its U.
S.
corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to 2.
425 billion bushes from last month's forecast of 2.
5 billion bushes, an 11.
9% decrease from 2020/21
.
S.
corn exports, the USDA this month lowered its U.
S.
corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to 2.
425 billion bushes from last month's forecast of 2.
5 billion bushes, an 11.
9% decrease from 2020/21
.
U.
S.
corn demand outlook further improves in ethanol industry
S.
corn demand outlook further improves in ethanol industry
Following a 55% rise in U.
S.
crude prices in 2021, they are up around 12% so far in 2021
.
The continued rise in international crude oil prices means a more optimistic outlook for biofuel demand, helping to boost profits from ethanol production, which is the main raw material for U.
S.
corn
.
S.
crude prices in 2021, they are up around 12% so far in 2021
.
The continued rise in international crude oil prices means a more optimistic outlook for biofuel demand, helping to boost profits from ethanol production, which is the main raw material for U.
S.
corn
.
This week, the USDA raised its forecast for 2021/22 U.
S.
corn use in ethanol production to 5.
325 billion bushels in its January supply and demand report, up 75 million bushels from last month's forecast and nearly 300 million bushels higher than the previous year.
or 5.
9 percentage points
.
S.
corn use in ethanol production to 5.
325 billion bushels in its January supply and demand report, up 75 million bushels from last month's forecast and nearly 300 million bushels higher than the previous year.
or 5.
9 percentage points
.
World corn ending stocks are lowered by nearly 2.
5 million tons, mainly because of lower South American production
5 million tons, mainly because of lower South American production
This month the USDA projected 2021/22 (October-September) global corn ending stocks at 303.
07 million tons, down from the December forecast of 305.
54 million and also below analysts' expectations of 304.
08 million
.
07 million tons, down from the December forecast of 305.
54 million and also below analysts' expectations of 304.
08 million
.
This month's reduction in global corn inventories is mainly due to the reduction of global corn production by 1.
77 million tons, from 1,208.
73 million tons expected in the previous month to 1,206.
96 million tons, of which Brazil and Argentina corn production was reduced by 3.
5 million tons, more than increased U.
S.
corn production
.
77 million tons, from 1,208.
73 million tons expected in the previous month to 1,206.
96 million tons, of which Brazil and Argentina corn production was reduced by 3.
5 million tons, more than increased U.
S.
corn production
.
