Futures Weekly Report (3.14-3.18)

Methanol: lingering finishing

Last week, methanol futures showed a trend of first down and then up, and the center of gravity fluctuated downward

In the spot market, the methanol spot market sentiment cooled down slightly, and the price center of gravity dropped from a high level

In terms of supply, as of March 17, the operating rate of the methanol industry was 73.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory fluctuated at a low level and within a narrow range, around 756,600 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous month, which was significantly lower than the level of the same period last year by 13.

On the downstream side, the production profits of enterprises were squeezed, the rigid demand was weak, and the demand fell in a narrow range

On the whole, the sentiment in the domestic methanol spot market has cooled down slightly, and the pressure on the supply of goods is not at all staged, but the downstream is mostly holding a wait-and-see attitude, and the order follow-up is insufficient.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Soda ash: first and then rising

Last week, the relationship between supply and demand remained bearish and suppressed

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of soda ash was at a seasonally high level, and the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 89.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the total soda ash inventory was 1.

　　In terms of demand, last week, some manufacturers' production units entered the equipment maintenance stage

　　On the whole, soda ash futures may face the "three highs" situation of high supply, high profit, and high inventory in the future.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: shallow rebound

　　Last week, under the influence of the bearish factor of supply and demand, natural rubber futures continued to slump unilaterally and rebounded slightly

　　In terms of supply, the inventory in Qingdao warehouse has turned from increase to decrease, and the inventory pressure has eased.

　　In terms of foreign supply, Thailand, Vietnam, the production areas north of the equator in Indonesia and Malaysia are in the off-season of rubber tapping.

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 18, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 1,289 tons to 253,500 tons; the inventory of No.

　　On the downstream side, affected by the aggravation of the epidemic, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires decreased month-on-month across the board, and the operating rate dropped significantly

　　On the whole, the supply and demand of natural rubber are weak, and the supply is in a seasonal off-season
.
Downstream tire and automobile sales grew at a low rate, and the supply and demand relationship was bearish
.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a low regional fluctuation trend
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Polyolefins: first up and then down

　　As of the close on March 18, the price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures generally showed a situation of first falling and then rising
.
The main LLDPE contract fell 238 yuan to close at 9,044 yuan; the polypropylene (PP) 2205 contract fell 325 yuan weekly to close at 8,870 yuan
.

　　In terms of spot, as of March 18, the spot price of LLDPE has fluctuated widely, with fluctuations ranging from 100 to 200 yuan in various regions, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8800 to 9350 yuan; PP spot market prices are dominated by consolidation, with weekly fluctuations The range is 50~150 yuan; the mainstream price of drawing in North China is 8600~8800 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) production units was 82.
52%, down 3.
3 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of PP production units was 82.
29%, down 4.
92 percentage points from the previous week
.
The willingness of production enterprises to reduce load increased, and the amount of maintenance losses increased month-on-month
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 18, petrochemical producers' inventory was 990,000 tons, and the weekly destocking was 20,000 tons
.
The PE port inventory was 319,000 tons, and the PP port inventory was 19,600 tons.
Affected by the slow logistics and transportation, the port inventory was accumulated and accumulated
.

　　In terms of demand, as of March 17, the operating rate of agricultural film was 51%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of packaging was 58%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of injection molding was 57%, which was the same as the previous week.
unchanged; the utilization rate of plastic weaving was 58%, the same as the previous week
.
At present, the mulching film is in the peak production season, the factory orders are mostly pre-orders, and the new orders are limited
.
The demand for shed film is off-season, and the orders are relatively small
.

　　In general, the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is continuously consumed.
As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens, the downstream market needs to replenish inventory
.
Under the background of marginal reduction in supply, inventory replenishment by downstream companies and upward drive from the cost side, it is expected that the price of polyolefin may usher in a rise in the market outlook
.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)