Futures Weekly Report (2.21-2.25)

Methanol: Lifting the center of gravity

Last week, the methanol futures market showed a fluctuating upward trend.

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market sentiment improved slightly, and both coastal and inland market prices rose

In terms of operating rate, as of February 24, the overall load of methanol production units was 70.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas has shrunk to 770,000 tons, a decrease of 44,500 tons from the previous month, which is 24.

On the downstream side, the downstream market demand is still recovering, and the just-needed replenishment has increased

On the whole, there is still some support on the cost side, the supply of goods is relatively stable, the downstream rigid demand is stable and rising, the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Slightly up

　　As of the close on February 25, the price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures rose 127 yuan to close at 8,807 yuan; the price of polypropylene (PP) futures rose 200 yuan to close at 8,540 yuan

　　In terms of spot, on February 25th, the LLDPE spot market was mainly warm, the prices in various districts rose by 50 yuan, and the domestic mainstream price was 8750~9050 yuan; the PP spot market was mainly up, and the overall price fluctuation range was 50~100 yuan.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: weak run

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated and weakened

　　In terms of spot goods, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious, the circulation of spot goods is blocked, and the import pressure is reduced

　　In terms of supply, the production areas in Yunnan and Hainan continued to stop cutting, and domestic rubber was still maintained at inventory and imports

　　In terms of foreign supply, Thailand, Vietnam, the production areas north of the equator in Indonesia and Malaysia are all in the off-season of rubber tapping.

　　In terms of inventory, on February 25, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 1,170 tons to 249,000 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 2,147 tons to 94,100 tons

　　On the downstream side, after the Lantern Festival, domestic tire factories have returned to normal operation, and the operating rate of all-steel tire and semi-steel tire enterprises has increased significantly

　　On the whole, affected by factors such as the off-season of natural rubber supply at home and abroad and the sharp increase in the downstream operating rate, it is difficult for the natural rubber futures market to continue to decline deeply

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda Ash: Deep Plunge

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to slump unilaterally

　　In terms of supply, last week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.
77%, a decrease of 0.
22 percentage points from the previous week; the output of soda ash was 556,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory of soda ash was 1,398,600 tons, a decrease of 179,600 tons from the previous month, of which the decline in light and heavy alkali was flat, and the social inventory continued to increase
.

　　In terms of demand, last week, domestic demand for soda ash was stable
.
After the holiday, the glass enterprises did not change much in operation, and the demand for heavy alkali consumption was relatively stable; the demand for soda ash in the downstream daily glass, Paohua alkali, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries of light alkali was acceptable
.

　　In terms of cost, the overall cost of domestic soda ash continued to decline
.
The average market price of raw raw salt, thermal coal, and synthetic ammonia fell, which led to a decline in the cost of the soda ash industry last week.
The comprehensive cost of soda ash manufacturers per ton of product was 1,615 yuan
.

　　In terms of profits, last week, the profit of domestic soda ash products increased to 1094 yuan
.

　　On the whole, there is no new pressure on the supply of soda ash, while the output of downstream flat glass may continue to increase, and there is a rigid demand for heavy caustic soda
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)