Futures Weekly Report (1.3-1.7)

Methanol: short-term stabilization

Methanol: Stabilizing Short Term Methanol: Stabilizing Short Term

Last week, the methanol futures market stopped falling and rebounded, the center of gravity moved up, and the trend slightly improved
.

As of the close of last Friday, the intertemporal price difference between methanol 2205 and 2209 contracts was 13 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the trend of contracts in recent months was slightly stronger

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market sentiment has improved, and the price has risen steadily
.

In terms of operating rate, as of January 6, the overall operating load of methanol plants was 70.
72%, an increase of 0.
3 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 1.
32 percentage points from the same period last year
.

At present, there are still many sets of devices in the state of shutdown or maintenance, and the recovery of construction is relatively slow, and the pressure on the supply of goods is gradually relieved

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas increased by 32,000 tons month-on-month to 761,500 tons, down 34.
92% year-on-year, and the overall tradable supply is estimated to be around 216,000 tons
.

The accumulation of port inventory is not obvious, and the pressure of low inventory is not large for the time being

On the downstream side, the average operating load of coal-to-olefins units rose to 77.
21%, an increase of 3.
47 percentage points from the previous month, and the emerging demand for methanol was relatively stable
.

The traditional demand is difficult to improve, and the performance is mixed.

　　On the whole, the pressure of supply and demand is acceptable in the short term, and the methanol futures price has rebounded from a low level, and there is still a possibility of a surge.
More orders have been entered and held cautiously.
The upper target is 2650 yuan, and the rebound to a high level can gradually stop the profit
.

　　(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

　　Soda Ash: Continuous Rebound

　　Soda ash: continuous rebound　　Soda ash: continuous rebound

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to rebound slightly technically
.

As of the close of last Friday, SA2205 closed up 25 yuan to 2,337 yuan, an increase of 1.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.
38%, an increase of 3.
39% from the previous month; the output of soda ash was 551,400 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory of soda ash was 1.
8351 million tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from the previous month
.

　　On the downstream side, float glass is shipped at a profit, and cold repairs are expected to remain; photovoltaic glass has improved, and expansion needs to wait
.

Soda ash is the peak supply season in winter, but the prosperity in the middle and lower reaches is low

　　End users just need to purchase mainly, large-scale pre-holiday stocking has not yet started, and transportation in some areas is tight
.

The float glass and photovoltaic glass markets in the downstream of heavy alkali are running weakly, and the sentiment about the price reduction of heavy alkali remains unabated, and the focus of price transactions in the heavy alkali market has shifted downward; the downstream demand for light alkali is weak, and users in some areas are appropriately replenishing goods at low prices, and soda ash manufacturers ship more The previous period improved

　　On the whole, soda ash is in a situation of oversupply, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: strong shock

　Natural rubber: strong shock　Natural rubber: strong shock

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market was volatile and volatile regionally
.

As of the close of last Friday, Hujiao RU2205 closed up 365 yuan to 14,910 yuan, an increase of 2.

　　In terms of supply, both Yunnan and Hainan production areas have stopped cutting in an all-round way, and domestic rubber consumption is still maintained at inventory and imports
.

　　In terms of inventory, on January 7, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 3,945 tons to 234,800 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 3,498 tons to 72,700 tons
.
Affected by futures and cash arbitrage, spot inventories continued to flow into the futures market, resulting in a steady increase in inventory pressure
.

　　On the downstream side, last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories dropped significantly month-on-month
.
The maintenance factory resumed work, but affected by the pressure of finished product inventory, the foreign trade orders of the superimposed tire factory were reduced, the replacement of domestic sales terminals was coming to an end, and the manufacturers were cautious in scheduling production
.
As of January 6, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 52.
03%, down 9.
69 percentage points from December 30; the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 60.
05%, down 3.
65 percentage points from December 30
.

　　Due to the decline in the operating rate of various projects in winter, the weakening of passenger car consumer demand, and the increasing pressure on the inventory of tire finished products, the operating rate of all-steel tire and semi-steel tire enterprises has been greatly suppressed.
, but also led to weak consumer demand for natural rubber
.

　　In summary, affected by the uncertainty of import transportation, the natural rubber futures market rose slightly, but due to tire consumption and the epidemic, it is expected that the natural rubber futures price has limited room to rise
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Polyolefins: On the strong side

Polyolefins: Heavy Running Polyolefins: Heavy Running

　　Last week, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices were on the strong side
.
As of the close of last Friday, the L2205 contract rose 237 yuan to close at 8,759 yuan; the PP2205 contract rose 227 yuan to close at 8,370 yuan
.

　　In terms of spot, in the week of January 7, the market price of LLDPE mainly rose, the price of 3 regions rose by 100~200 yuan, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 8650~8950 yuan
.
The price of PP market is mainly increased.
The three regions generally increase by 100~200 yuan.
The mainstream price of wire drawing material in North China is 8100~8250 yuan, and the mainstream price of wire drawing material in East China is 8250~8450 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of PE increased by 2.
67% to 91.
35%; the operating rate of PP was 87.
78%, with little change
.
The operating rates of PE and PP remained high, and the supply side was still under pressure
.

　　In terms of inventory, on January 7, the petrochemical inventory was 595,000 tons, and the destocking continued within the day
.
In terms of social inventory, PP continued to go to the library in the week of January 6
.

　　In terms of demand, the demand for agricultural film downstream of PE has slowed down, the demand for shed film is gradually ending, and the follow-up of orders is limited; the demand for plastic film is slow to follow up, and the overall construction trend of the industry is weakening
.
The operating rate of PP downstream enterprises was mixed, and the undelivered orders of biaxially oriented polypropylene film (BOPP) enterprises increased slightly
.

　　On the whole, the fundamentals of supply and demand are weakening, but driven by the benign transmission of inventory and cost, short-term polyolefin futures prices may continue to rise.
However, due to the impact of high production, it is expected to be under pressure.
It is recommended to pay attention to the LLDPE2205 contract at 9,000 yuan and PP2205 Contract 8700 yuan pressure level
.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)