Futures Weekly (2.28-3.4)

Methanol: high volatility

Last week, the methanol futures market broke through the previous high pressure level, and the price exceeded 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), reaching a maximum of 3,159 yuan, a new high in nearly 4 months

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market sentiment recovered, and the price fluctuated higher

In terms of supply, as of March 3, the operating rate of the methanol industry was 71.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas increased in a narrow range to 805,400 tons, an increase of 35,400 tons from the previous month, which was significantly lower than the level of the same period last year by 14.

On the downstream side, most of the coal-to-olefins units were running smoothly, and the operating rate remained at 82%

On the whole, methanol is in a low inventory stage, the fundamental pressure is not large, and the futures price is running at a high level

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Slightly up

As of the close on March 4, the price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures rose 325 yuan to close at 9,132 yuan; the price of polypropylene (PP) futures rose 504 yuan to close at 8,945 yuan

　　In terms of spot, as of March 4, the LLDPE market is mainly warm, with prices in various districts rising by 250~300 yuan, and domestic mainstream prices at 9100~9400 yuan; PP spot market is mainly up, with prices rising by 350~500 yuan.

　　In terms of supply, last week, domestic PE overhaul devices increased, involving a production capacity of 2.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory of petrochemical producers was 885,000 tons, and the inventory destocking amounted to 120,000 tons, which was a significant destocking

　　In terms of demand, as of March 4, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 46%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry was 58%, an increase of 4 percentage points; the operating rate of the injection molding industry was 56%, an increase of 4 percentage points.

　　Overall, downstream demand has picked up, and the supply and demand margin has shown signs of improvement, but the overall supply and demand is still weak, and it is expected that the price of polyolefin futures will continue to rise in the short term

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: weak volatility

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market was weak and fluctuated

　　In terms of supply, the inventory of Qingdao Port has continued to grow, and the inventory has exceeded 400,000 tons, and the inventory pressure has gradually become heavier

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 4, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 21,800 tons to 251,200 tons; the inventory of No.

　　On the downstream side, domestic tire factories have returned to normal operation after the holiday, and the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has increased significantly month-on-month

　　On the whole, although the supply of natural rubber is in the off-season in the short term, there will be excess capacity, and downstream tire and automobile sales will grow at a low rate
.
The relationship between supply and demand is bearish, and it is expected that the natural rubber futures market will remain volatile at a low level
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda Ash: Weak Rebound

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market weakened after a technical rebound
.
As of the close on March 4, SA2205 closed down 28 yuan to 2,708 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 83.
1%, an increase of 2.
9 percentage points from the previous week; the total output of soda ash enterprises was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.
25 million to 1.
26 million tons, a decrease of 6.
1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 22.
5%
.
Although the operating rate of the soda ash industry has increased, manufacturers still have orders to be issued to support them.
Most manufacturers have reduced their inventories and reduced inventory pressure
.

　　In terms of supply and demand, the consumer demand for terminal glass has grown, and the market sentiment is warmer
.
However, at present, the spot inventory of soda ash is still high, and the company has sufficient quantities to be released, and the expectation of destocking is good
.

　　On the whole, the supply of soda ash is not under the pressure of new production capacity, the company mainly executes orders, the demand for glass in consumption is stable, and the supply and demand relationship of soda ash will maintain a balanced situation
.
It is expected that the soda ash futures market has relatively limited room for rising or falling, and it is more likely to maintain regional shocks
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)