Futures Market Weekly (6.21-6.25)

Methanol: stabilizing and picking up

Methanol: Stabilizes and rises Methanol: Stabilizes and rises

Last week, after a short period of consolidation, methanol futures gradually stabilized and rebounded, and continued to break upward.
The confidence of market participants increased, reaching a maximum of 2599 yuan (ton price, the same below), intending to test the pressure level of the 2,600 yuan mark, and the weekly increase was 5.
67 %
.

As of the close of last Friday, the intertemporal spread between methanol 2109 and 2201 contracts was -84 yuan, and the far-month contract trended slightly stronger

In terms of spot, the market stopped falling and rebounded.
Prices in both the coastal and inland markets rose, but the rate of increase was relatively limited
.

In terms of operating rate, as of June 24, the operating load of methanol production plants was 71.
24%, a decrease of 0.
42 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 11.
2 percentage points from the same period last year
.

In July, there are still maintenance plans for multiple sets of devices, which will help ease the pressure on the supply side

In terms of port inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas increased to 881,500 tons, an increase of 52,500 tons from the previous month, but was significantly lower than the level of 31.
08% in the same period last year.
The tradable supply is estimated to be around 184,000 tons
.

Methanol port inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the current speed is relatively slow, and inventory pressure is not large for the time being

　　In the downstream, although the load of individual MTO installations in coastal areas has slightly decreased, the restart of the first phase of Ningmei Coal and Chengzhi Phase I has driven the start-up load of CTO/MTO installations to rise, increasing to 81.
85%
.

In terms of traditional demand, the operating rates of the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries fell within a narrow range, while the operating levels of the MTBE and acetic acid industries rebounded

　　On the whole, the fundamentals of methanol have not changed significantly, and it is difficult for futures prices to form a trending market
.

From the perspective of the weekly K line, the short-term methanol futures price may still rise, and the resistance at the 2,600 yuan mark above is relatively large, and more orders can be moderately reduced

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

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　　Soda ash: sharply higher

Soda ash: sharply higher soda ash: sharply higher

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market surged sharply, the main contract SA2109 closed up 45 yuan to 2,283 yuan, an increase of 2.
01%
.

　　On the supply side, as of June 25, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 78.
16%, a decrease of 0.
44% from the previous month
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of June 25, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 553,200 tons, a decline for the seventh consecutive week, down 61.
06% from the same period last year
.

　　On the downstream side, traders and downstream companies have greatly increased their enthusiasm for stocking, and the tight supply of soda ash continues to exist in some areas
.

　　The domestic production of flat glass continues to increase, and the photovoltaic glass production line is put into operation in the second half of the year, and the release of heavy alkali demand is expected to further increase
.

　　On the whole, the spot price of soda ash has a strong upward momentum, and the demand side ushered in a new growth point after the release of capacity restrictions on photovoltaic glass.
It is expected to further improve the current situation of oversupply.
However, the inventory pressure of soda ash delivery warehouses is relatively high, which may cause The rise in futures prices slowed down
.

　　(Industrial Futures Shihai)

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　　Natural rubber: stop falling and rebound

Natural rubber: stop falling and rebound Natural rubber: stop falling and rebound

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market stopped falling and stabilized
.

As of the close on June 25, RU2109 closed up 220 yuan to 13,230 yuan, an increase of 1.

　　In terms of supply, the price of raw materials in Hainan weakened slightly, the price difference between concentrated milk and whole milk narrowed, and the production tended to concentrate latex; the opening rate of Yunnan production areas returned to 80%, and the supply was abundant
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of June 25, the stock of Hujiao increased by 930 tons to 183,500 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 9,313 tons to 57,700 tons
.

The pressure on futures inventories tends to ease

　　Downstream, as of June 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 64.
13%, an increase of 7.
21% from a week ago; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 58.
95%, an increase of 6.
2% from a week ago
.

The price of natural rubber at home and abroad continues to fall, tire manufacturing costs have fallen, and operations have improved, which has triggered tire companies to expand their production scales and boost operating rates

　　In summary, affected by factors such as the reduction of inventory pressure and the recovery of downstream operating rates, the natural rubber futures market has stopped falling and rebounded.
It is expected that the market outlook will maintain a low and volatile trend
.

　　(Industrial Futures Shihai)

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　　PTA: Significant increase

　PTA: Rising sharply　PTA: Rising sharply

　　Last week, the PTA futures market rose sharply
.
As of the close on June 25, TA109 rose 7.
92% throughout the week to close at 5180 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, a set of 650,000 tons/year PTA device in East China will start to reduce load on June 25 and prepare for shutdown.
It is expected to be overhauled for about 1 week; a set of 1.
2 million tons/year PTA device in East China is scheduled to be overhauled for 20 days on July 10; PTA The main suppliers Yisheng and Hengli reduced their contracted supply in July by 30% and 50% respectively
.
The new capacity of PTA has not yet been put into production, and the accumulation rate is lower than expected
.

　　In terms of demand, the downstream polyester maintains a high operating load, and the polyester market is tepid
.
The production and sales of polyester filament is 61.
57%, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber is 95.
39%, and the production and sales of polyester chip is 35%
.
Hengli Petrochemical plans to invest in the construction of 800,000 tons/year functional polyester film, 1.
5 million tons/year green multifunctional textile new material projects and new materials supporting chemical projects, boosting market sentiment
.

　　In terms of cost, the demand for crude oil is growing faster than the supply, and the price has set a new high since October 2018.
PTA cost support is strong
.

　　In general, the high crude oil price has strengthened the support for polyester costs, and it is expected that PTA will continue to operate strongly in the short term
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)

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　　Polyolefins: a strong rise

　Polyolefin: a strong rise　Polyolefin: a strong rise

　　Last week, the polyolefin futures market performed strongly
.
The LLDPE2109 contract rose 285 yuan, or 3.
66%; the PP2109 contract rose 333 yuan, or 4.
04%
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of June 25, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 610,000 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 11.
59%.
In the same period last year, the inventory was roughly 680,000 tons
.

　　In terms of spot, LLDPE and PP spot market prices are mainly rising, both rising by 200 to 300 yuan
.

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film rebounded from a low level last week, and BOPP orders were sufficient
.
Downstream demand began to slowly increase, which is bullish for commodity prices
.
In the midstream, social inventories have continued to decrease slightly, and traders’ active shipments have achieved good results.
Downstream companies still need to replenish inventory.
Downstream companies have expectations for replenishment, and focus on the pace of replenishment by downstream companies
.

　　In terms of profit, oil-to-olefin profit remains low, making the oil-to-olefin cost drive phased support
.

　　On the whole, the short-term chain supply has not changed much in the short-term, and cost-driven support.
Downstream companies periodically replenish inventory when polyolefin prices are low, which will drive polyolefin prices to continue to rebound.
However, due to the expected impact of LLDPE and PP production, the medium and long Prices are still under pressure, and it is recommended that LLDPE and PP prices continue to be based on rallies
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)