Funds leave the market to hedge Bears actively pressure aluminum prices

The main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 13640 yuan / ton
at the beginning of the week.
Only in the opening long and short game, Shanghai aluminum fell below the 5-day moving average, touching the low of the week of 13515 yuan / ton, after the bulls continued to enter, Shanghai aluminum quickly climbed above the 5-day moving average, and the high of Shanghai aluminum touched 13755 yuan / ton
in the middle of the week.
After the high bears took the initiative to put pressure, and near the Dragon Boat Festival funds left the market to hedge, Shanghai aluminum fell back below the 5-day moving average, as of Wednesday afternoon Shanghai aluminum closed at 13605 yuan / ton
.
Weekly holdings increased by 12,000 lots to 151,000 lots, and weekly Shanghai aluminum index holdings decreased by 8,062 lots to 443,000 lots
.

In terms of external trading, the Lunaluminum March contract opened at $1592/ton
at the beginning of the week.
At the beginning of the week, the Lun aluminum long-short game diverged, touching the weekly low of $1581.
5 / ton on Monday afternoon and then touching the weekly high of $1605.
5 / ton in the evening, breaking through the 5/10 daily moving average
.
After the funds continued to close their positions and leave the market, Lun Aluminum was always entangled in the 5/10 daily moving average
.
As of Wednesday afternoon, London aluminum was trading at $1587 / ton, falling below
the 5/10 daily moving average.
Under the shadow of the outbreak of the second epidemic, the expectation of economic recovery in the early stage has weakened, and relevant economic data show that the economic recovery in Europe and the United States is still relatively slow, and the resistance of the $1600/ton mark above Lun aluminum is greater
.
It is expected that as the center of gravity of the upper 5/10-day moving average moves downward, the center of gravity of the lower London aluminum operation will move
slightly downward when the long positions in the previous profit are closed.
It is expected that the operating range of London aluminum from Thursday to next week will be 1555~1595 US dollars / ton
.

Spot trading this week is
acceptable.
The spot trading price in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 13970-14040 yuan / ton, the weekly average price is 63 yuan / ton higher than last week, the premium is between 180-240 yuan / ton, the premium week remains firm, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between
13980-14060 yuan / ton 。 At the beginning of the week, East and South China planned to receive nearly 40,000 tons, because the price was in line with the psychological price of the holder, the carrier shipment was more active, because this week is the last week of the long order delivery month of the month, some middlemen have a large long order gap has not been implemented, this week the willingness to receive goods is higher, traders and buyers and sellers are active, the first two days of the market buyers more than sellers, near the weekend the willingness of the holder to ship significantly increased, but holiday factors affected, the actual transaction heat down
。 In the downstream, due to the proximity of the Dragon Boat Festival, there is a demand for stocking downstream, so the willingness to receive goods has improved compared with last week, but due to the high aluminum price and some stockpiling in the early stage, the receiving force is not as expected
.

Tight spot and relatively low inventories before the holiday continued to push up the price of aluminum in the future, but the two-day market closure during the Dragon Boat Festival increased the amount of safe-haven exit funds, and the high level of Shanghai aluminum gave up slightly, and the week K closed in a cross
.
At present, Shanghai aluminum is facing the contradiction of short-term spot supply tightness, weakening demand in the medium-term off-season, and long-term epidemic-controlled demand recovery, which makes the final threshold funds in the first half of the year relatively more cautious
.
It is expected that the opening point of Shanghai aluminum next week is mainly affected by the trend of London aluminum during the Dragon Boat Festival, there is a possibility of a slight low opening, the overall because it is in a relatively sensitive monthly stall, will still be dominated by high sideways, after entering July, if the tight spot leads to delivery There is a risk, then the price difference between the 07 and 08 contracts in the near month may widen, and the main 2008 contract runs at 13400~13750 yuan / ton
.