Fundamentals have improved, and aluminum continues to be strongly volatile

Supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in December, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks yesterday destocked 3,950 tons to 1,364,200 tons, the previous inventory was destocked last week by 11,718 tons to 220,400 tons, and the previous period warehouse receipts fell by 551 tons to 86,151 tons
.
According to the data on November 30, the social stock has decreased sharply by 14,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 26 to 597,000 tons, and the social stock has continued to deteriorate
.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is at a low level in the historical year, which forms a strong support
for the price.

In terms of raw materials, the price of alumina fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and the production profit is still in a high position from a historical point
of view.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in October, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.

Overall, the global manufacturing recovery is strong, aluminum fundamentals have improved, after Biden's victory in the multilateral cooperation of countries smoother, the global economic recovery has been promoted, it is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will continue to be strong and volatile, it is recommended to continue to hold long orders, pay attention to the opportunity to buy low
.