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On Friday morning, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14410 yuan / ton, the performance of the base metal in the day was first suppressed and then rising, Shanghai aluminum is no exception, the beginning of the session weak down to touch 14350 yuan / ton, and then opened the shock rebound mode, once touched 14460 yuan / ton, but the 5-day moving average still showed strong resistance, so aluminum prices gradually gave up gains to close at 14390 yuan / ton, the performance is still weak
.
The fundamentals continue to weaken, the pressure on the supply side is not reduced, and the downstream basically enters the holiday rhythm, so it is expected that the main contract of Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate at 14200~14650 yuan / ton next week, or will temporarily stop falling
.
In terms of external disk, in the morning, Lun aluminum opened at 2230.
5 US dollars / ton, subject to technical graphics, intraday Lun aluminum trend is really light, the upper pressure 10-day moving average, the lower 5-day moving average to find support, the center of gravity around the daily moving average running range of 2224 ~ 2235 US dollars / ton, as of 18:09, Lun aluminum reported 2227 US dollars / ton, in the short term, the US dollar is difficult to get out of the downturn and weakness, RMB appreciation continues, The target is directed to the direction of 6.
20, the external metal continues to form a strong effect, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum or will continue to struggle between the various moving averages, because China's disguised export of aluminum to a certain extent to fill some overseas gaps, and anti-arbitrage funds to a certain extent to inhibit the price performance of Lun aluminum, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum will fluctuate at 2200 ~ 2250 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of the market, before the afternoon, Shanghai trading concentrated 14200-14220 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 100-90 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentrated 14200-14220 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentrated 14220-14240 yuan / ton
.
Holders have stable shipments, spot discounts have narrowed, middlemen have heavier wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream enterprises are still in the Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the overall stocking strength is more cautious, and the overall transaction is stable
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum rushed back down, and the East China market traded 14210-14230 yuan / ton
.
In terms of inventory, during the day, the inventory of aluminum warehouse receipts in the previous period was 754365 tons, an increase of 201 tons
from the previous trading day.
As of Feb.
1, LME aluminium stocks stood at 1080550 tonnes, down 925 tonnes
from the previous session.
Industry information, it is understood that a medium-sized recycled aluminum enterprise in Qinghai, with a monthly output of up to 1,500 tons, has stopped production last week due to natural gas restrictions, and the resumption time is determined on the 15th
day of the first month due to the cold weather in the northwest.
On February 2, the Gaizhou Municipal Government of Yingkou, Liaoning Province and Bosai Group held a signing ceremony
for the 2.
5 million ton alumina project.
On the whole, the current inventory continues to refresh the historical high and there are new production capacity launches, aluminum prices will be under pressure, but the cost of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the external disk is running at a high level, supporting aluminum prices
.
