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On the last trading day of September, Shanghai aluminum was dominated by narrow ranges, and as of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down at 14145, down 55, or 0.
39%.
Although destocking is still continuing, from the perspective of processing demand, the situation of peak season is basically confirmed, and it is understood that orders in October remain stable compared with September, and there is no obvious sign of
improvement.
In terms of exports, some areas continue to improve, but from the import data released in August, unwrought aluminum and aluminum are still in a state of net imports, a steady stream of aluminum ingots and alloy ingots into the country, the recent import window is still open, in Europe The second disruption of the epidemic and the sanctions imposed by various countries on Chinese aluminum still need a long wait
.
On the supply side, Yun Aluminum Haixin and Yunnan Hongtai production capacity continued to be released, the pressure continued to increase, and the supply and demand margin began to weaken
.
Looking forward to the future market, the logic of marginal weakening of fundamentals is more certain, the pressure on aluminum prices is prominent, and the absolute price tends to weaken, but pay attention to the support of spot premium on the price of the month, and the accelerated decline of warehouse receipts after the crash
.
Since September, domestic social inventories have always remained low, and the recent active downstream stocking has promoted the dematerialization of inventory, and aluminum prices have received strong support under tight spot circulation; However, the current aluminum market fundamentals are still not performing well, the follow-up demand is not very clear, and the macro bearish impact also inhibits the upward trend of aluminum prices to a certain extent, in the short term, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum has a certain adjustment demand, if consumption does not improve significantly in October, spot or still under pressure at the 15,000 mark, the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see, the spot aluminum shock after the holiday is weak
.