From "lying to win" to "blood loss", pig futures have been diving for days

Following the national pork price drop for 19 consecutive weeks, on June 15, the National Bureau of Statistics again reported data showing that the price of pigs fell further in the first half of June

The price of live pigs fell 11.

Entering June, the national live pig price decline continued to expand

From a regional perspective, in the first week of June, pork prices in the Northeast region experienced a significant decline

"The decrease in the price of pork in Sichuan is due to the increase in the number of live pigs in Sichuan, the fierce competition in the pork sales market, and the slaughter companies actively reducing prices to occupy market share; while the Guangdong farmers and large-scale farms are actively selling, and the supply of live pigs has increased; the weather is hot, Poor terminal demand and low operating rates of slaughter companies have led to a decline in local live pig prices

"The current losses are mainly concentrated in the upstream breeding link, and the impact on the downstream is relatively lagging

Now entering June, the temperature across the country is getting longer, and the rainy season in the south is coming.

The main futures contract is at a historical lows6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

As the pork spot market fell, the main hog futures contract also continuously set a new low record since its listing

　　Over the same period, the profit margin of the company in the industry chain has gradually narrowed, and the stock price has fallen

　　Due to the sharp drop in pork sales prices, even if sales surged, corporate profitability continued to decline

　　The African swine fever epidemic broke out in China in 2018, affecting the country's pig production capacity

　　"The current price ratio of pigs and grains has reached the conditions for the first level of early warning

　　The production capacity of live pigs has not yet fully recovered, but the price of pigs has fallen into the loss range

　　Liu Tong, head of the Beijing Xinfadi Market Statistics Department, pointed out that due to the continuous decline in meat prices, the slaughter prices of some farms have fallen below the break-even point

　　The price of live pigs fell 11.

　　Entering June, the national live pig price decline continued to expand
.
According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the wholesale price of pork fell from 25.
63 yuan/kg to 24.
64 yuan/kg in the second week of June
.
The relevant person in charge of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that due to concerns about the market outlook, farmers are actively selling, and there is still a large number of large-weight live pigs for sale, and the supply of live pigs is sufficient that week
.
At the same time, the hot weather has led to poor consumption of fresh pork, poor sales by slaughter companies, and lower prices of live pigs and pork
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From a regional perspective, in the first week of June, pork prices in the Northeast region experienced a significant decline
.
The weekly average price of pork in Northeast, North China, Central China, and East China is 20.
14 yuan/kg, 20.
79 yuan/kg, 21.
94 yuan/kg and 22.
50 yuan/kg respectively
.
The weekly average price of pork in major pig-raising provinces such as Sichuan and Guangdong is also 20.
71 yuan/kg and 25.
19 yuan/kg respectively
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The decrease in the price of pork in Sichuan is due to the increase in the number of live pigs in Sichuan, the fierce competition in the pork sales market, and the slaughter companies actively reducing prices to occupy market share; while the Guangdong farmers and large-scale farms are actively selling, and the supply of live pigs has increased; the weather is hot, Poor terminal demand and low operating rates of slaughter companies have led to a decline in local live pig prices
.
” The person in charge said
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The current losses are mainly concentrated in the upstream breeding link, and the impact on the downstream is relatively lagging
.
In Northeast China, farmers have eliminated sows and slaughtered sows
.
In the short term, pork prices will also increase with the fall in fat pig prices.
Continue to fall
.
” Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sozhu.
com, pointed out
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Now entering June, the temperature across the country is getting longer, and the rainy season in the south is coming.
The high temperature and high humidity environment will further bring risks to pig breeding
.
Feng Yonghui reminded that under the aforementioned unfavorable factors, pig farmers in southern China must do a good job of preventing heatstroke and cooling, and also increase hardware equipment, try to keep the pig house temperature below 30 degrees, and cooperate with proper health care of the pig herd to resist the overall resistance of the pig herd.
Strength can be continuously improved
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The main futures contract is at a historical lows6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　As the pork spot market fell, the main hog futures contract also continuously set a new low record since its listing
.
In just a few months, the main contract lh2019 of live pig futures fell from a historical high of 30,680 yuan/ton to 19,000 yuan/ton
.
As of press time, the contract price was 18810 yuan/ton, the lowest level since the listing of live pig futures in January this year
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Over the same period, the profit margin of the company in the industry chain has gradually narrowed, and the stock price has fallen
.
Flush data shows that Muyuan, a leading pig-raising company, fell from 92.
53 yuan to less than 65 yuan, a decline of more than 30% in 4 months, the market value evaporated by more than 140 billion yuan, and the average loss of 124,200 shareholders exceeded 1.
1 million yuan
.
Muyuan shares also pointed out in the investor relations record released a few days ago that “the company needs to improve talent management and capital reserves to prepare for the coming of the winter in the industry
.
”s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Due to the sharp drop in pork sales prices, even if sales surged, corporate profitability continued to decline
.
On June 8, New Hope, also a leading domestic pig company, disclosed its May live pig sales briefing
.
According to statistics, the company sold 693,300 live pigs in May, a year-on-year increase of 40.
6%, and revenue of 1.
396 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.
75%
.
Among them, the average price of commercial pigs is 18.
46 yuan/kg
.
In July last year, this data once reached 36.
34 yuan/kg
.
According to statistics, since September last year, the share price of New Hope has fallen by more than 60%
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The African swine fever epidemic broke out in China in 2018, affecting the country's pig production capacity
.
In 2020, the number of live pigs produced in China will drop by 25% compared with 2017.
After the epidemic prevention and resumption of production by various ministries and commissions, the current production capacity is returning to a normal level
.
As of the end of April this year, the number of reproductive sows in the country has returned to 97.
6% of the normal year.
The relevant parties predict that the number of pigs for slaughter in the second half of this year is expected to return to the normal level
.
The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission said that with the continuous recovery of production capacity, the prices of live pigs and pork are expected to continue to return to a reasonable level
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The current price ratio of pigs and grains has reached the conditions for the first level of early warning
.
" Feng Yonghui believes that the fat pigs that should have been slaughtered have not been sold until now, and the market supply pressure is still obvious, and there is no obvious boost in demand.
, The state of supply and demand belongs to the stage of oversupply
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The production capacity of live pigs has not yet fully recovered, but the price of pigs has fallen into the loss range
.
In order to prevent pork prices from being too low and pig farming related entities from excessive losses, on June 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments jointly issued the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Work Plan for the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices
.
" According to the latest plan, the pig-to-food ratio is less than 5:1, and purchasing and storage will be fully launched
.
According to the current latest secondary corn price, the pig price is lower than 7.
3 yuan/jin, and the government will start purchasing and storage in an all-round way
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Liu Tong, head of the Beijing Xinfadi Market Statistics Department, pointed out that due to the continuous decline in meat prices, the slaughter prices of some farms have fallen below the break-even point
.
After the government introduced measures to maintain supply and stabilize prices, the pace of meat price declines will gradually slow down and improve somewhat.
This week's meat prices may have reached a staged bottom
.
Meat prices will continue to run at a low level for a period of time before the large white striped pigs are completely digested by the market
.
Prices may pick up a bit during this period, but the rate of recovery will not be too great
.
s6d China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry