Forecast of soybean market in China in the next two or three months

Introduction: according to the latest data of China's customs, China has imported 12.7917 million tons of soybeans from January to November this year, of which 737810 tons were imported in November, 17.8 percentage points lower than last month Through this set of data, I would like to talk about the following issues and look forward to the domestic soybean market in the next two to three months First, from January to November this year, China imported 12.8 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 3.13 million tons, or 32.3% This situation was realized on the basis of 600000 tons of soybean harvest and 600000 tons of port backlog last year, which is enough to prove the sufficient supply of soybean and the development of domestic oil processing enterprises in the past year In November, the report of the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that 4.91 million tons of soybean stocks would be transferred by the end of the year of 00 / 01 in China, which seems to be quite possible At least we should accept the fact that China's soybean supply is relatively sufficient at present Second, in the second half of this year, many domestic soybean importers fantasized about the opportunity of using GM regulations to restrict the import of soybeans, adopted a variety of means to make speculative changes and the actual progress of the regulations in the later period, which resulted in a significant increase in the import of soybeans in July, August and September, rather than a decrease Customs statistics show that 5.19 million tons of soybeans were imported into China in that quarter, which is a huge quantity and a great pressure on the domestic market In terms of the structure of importers, apart from the needs of large-scale oil processing enterprises themselves, mainly traders, what is the way out for their soybean Third, the import volume of 740000 tons of soybeans in November is a good signal for us, and we should be inspired by it It indirectly proves that at present, the average monthly raw material demand of domestic oil processing enterprises engaged in direct import is about 800000 tons; if there is no major policy change in the later period, the country does not take strict import restrictions, and the monthly import volume in 2002 will not be lower than this level at least Fourth, due to the price, especially the survival difficulties of small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises, the consumption of domestic soybean in 2001 actually decreased According to our investigation on the soybean market in Northeast, Shandong and South China, in the first half of 2001, the use of domestic soybean decreased by about 1 million tons year on year due to the decrease of the operating rate of small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises And in October and November this year, although the price of domestic soybeans is not high, the actual shipment quantity is also declining, and the stock of domestic soybeans in Northeast China is relatively sufficient Fifthly, according to the actual import situation and market survey, we remind you to believe that the current port backlog of imported soybeans should be around 1.2 million tons Who will digest these things, only small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises But in order to achieve this, four conditions must be met: first, the price of domestic soybean is rising However, at present, the actual purchase price of Heilongjiang Province is below 1600 yuan / ton, which is only 1820 yuan / ton in Shandong market Moreover, there are abundant sources of goods and limited space for increase It's no wonder that the port price of 1900 yuan / ton of imported soybeans has been ignored Second, the price of soybean meal and soybean oil has risen, the processing profit of oil plants has increased, and the purchasing power has increased substantially, which I believe no one will see Third, transportation capacity is tight, Northeast soybean shipping is not smooth, and small and medium-sized oil plants have no goods to pick up With the beginning of the Spring Festival, transportation tension can appear, but it will not be in a very short state In addition, this year's large-scale enterprises have brought impact on small enterprises, and the decline in the operating rate of small enterprises is an inevitable result, so even if the same transportation capacity tension occurs this year as last year, the market reaction will be much colder Fourth, the sharp rise of the international market In November, the report of the U.S Department of agriculture has announced that the forecast of global soybean production has not been reduced, and the trend of the external market is also at a low level There is no requirement for a sharp rebound from the Chicago market to the domestic Dalian futures market Sixth, to say the least, it will take two months for the domestic small and medium-sized enterprises to digest the existing port inventory, even if the soybean export volume in the northeast during the Spring Festival is zero, according to the domestic soybean meal demand of 1.1 million tons / month, the soybean crush volume of about 1.37 million tons, and the import volume of 800000 tons of large enterprises Spring Festival is coming, Spring Festival is about to start, the opportunity for market rebound does exist, but I just want to remind you to look at the surrounding environment calmly and never be blindly optimistic.