Forecast of domestic soybean meal price trend in August

Introduction: In recent years, the price of soybean meal in China has been rising rapidly As of August 4, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong is 2080-2100 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 2100 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu is 2120-2130 yuan / ton, in Guangxi is 2140 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 2260 yuan / ton, in Heilongjiang is 2050 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal in each region is 150-250 yuan / ton higher than that two weeks ago Up about 10% The reasons for the rise of soybean meal price in the domestic market are as follows: 1 The rising import price of foreign soybeans (the price of imported soybeans reached 2360-2400 yuan / ton last week), resulting in the rising cost of soybean meal in domestic oil plants and the increasing sales price of soybean meal in oil plants under the pressure of cost; 2 The increasing demand for feed in domestic aquaculture and aquaculture since July, the sales of soybean meal Compared with the previous period, it has obvious improvement The long and short factors that affect the price trend of soybean meal in the later stage: favorable factors: first, the cost of imported soybean keeps rising The cost of domestic soybean meal will continue to rise Second, the domestic demand for soybean meal has been effectively improved Third, the uncertainty of soybean arrival in August 4 Support from the state's full tax rebate policy for soybean meal export 5 The price trend of edible oil is expected to be stable in the later period According to the statistics of COFCO futures, more than 200000 tons of crude soybean oil will be imported to Hong Kong from around July 20, 90% of which is Argentine soybean oil, 100000 tons of South American soybean oil and 20000 tons of American soybean oil will be imported in August, plus a small amount of imports in June, a total of 400000 tons of soybean oil will be imported into China in the near future, and the inflow of these soybean oil into the market will play a good role in stabilizing the domestic soybean oil price, Therefore, the domestic soybean oil price is unlikely to rise significantly Negative factors: first, domestic soybean meal prices have risen to a higher level in recent years 2 Domestic soybean meal supply may increase in the near future 3 Domestic oil plants increase sales at a high level Fourth, domestic feed processing plants have adopted soybean meal substitutes Based on the above factors, the domestic soybean meal price is still greatly affected, and the market uncertainty still exists, but the main factor influencing the soybean meal price trend in the near future is the arrival of soybean in August, If the quantity of imported soybean meal in August is stable, the price of soybean meal will depend on the joint effect of other factors; if the quantity of imported soybean meal in August is small and the supply is short, the price of soybean meal in August will continue to maintain the current rising market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: