Five predictions for global clean energy development in 2019

Bloomberg New Energy Finance released its 2018 global clean energy investment report earlier this year, saying, "In the context of slowing global GDP growth, the scale of clean energy investment in 2019 will continue to shrink
as the cost of clean energy falls.
" However, we have a cleaner future
.
”

1.
Cost reduction The scale of clean energy investment has declined

In recent years, the cost of clean energy, especially solar, has been declining, and the world must order more capacity to match the scale of
investment in the previous year.
However, in 2019, the cost of clean energy, including solar and wind power, continues to decline, and Bloomberg expects clean energy investment for the whole year to be around $300 billion, down from $330 billion
in 2018.

But at the same time, the world will get more wind and solar installations
.
In 2018, the cost of solar capital fell by about 12%, mainly because manufacturers cut module prices
in the face of overcapacity.
At the same time, global offshore wind developed rapidly in 2018, with a cumulative investment of US$25.
7 billion, mainly thanks to three projects
in Europe.

2.
In addition to China, solar energy installations have increased in many countries

Bloomberg estimates that once final figures come in the coming weeks, solar installations in 2018 will eventually reach around
109GW.
It is likely to grow to 125GW to 141GW
in the coming year.
Europe is building more PV again, and India, the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey are continuing to expand their deployments
.

But China, the world's largest PV market, is mired in uncertainty and the government is trying to reconcile
future solar support with a deficit of 150 billion yuan ($23.
4 billion) from the renewable energy fund at the end of 2017.

At the same time, there are countries that are conducting auctions and tenders to purchase cost-effective solar energy
.
As cost and scale growth will continue to improve, last year's sharp price drop will not be repeated against the backdrop of a sudden slowdown in China
.
As module manufacturing becomes more competitive, some companies may exit the market
.

3.
The wind power market will usher in a leap in production capacity

The global wind market added 53.
5GW of new capacity in 2018 and is expected to add more than 70GW by 2019, with Northern Europe, China and the US all driving an increase in onshore wind power, many of which have already completed financing
in 2018.
New offshore capacity is likely to rise to 8.
5GW
from 4.
8GW in 2018.

In particular, in offshore wind, Europe will install 4.
9GW in 2019, while Asia will install 3.
5GW, both record highs
.
Offshore wind is a "must-have" technology for 2019, spurred
by dramatic price drops and awesome scale.

The development of onshore wind power has ushered in high growth
as turbine prices have fallen sharply.
According to Bloomberg tracking data, onshore wind turbine costs have fallen by 17%
since December 2016.

4.
Energy storage increased by 10GWh for the first time

For the first time in the history of the market, global annual energy storage deployments in 2019 will exceed 10GWh, including utility-scale and behind-the-scenes assets, while preliminary estimates for 2018 will add about 8GWh
of energy storage for the full year.

Despite the threat of a trade war, Chinese battery producers will build a truly global presence
.
Car companies will expand their relationships with Chinese suppliers as their sales in the country increase
.
International energy storage developers and integrators will travel to China to find a battery market
.
Intense competition and the recent decline in cobalt and lithium costs will push the average price below $150/kWh
.
By the end of 2018, battery pack prices reached an all-time low of $176 per kWh
.

5.
New energy vehicle sales increase by 40%

There are currently nearly 5 million passenger electric vehicles worldwide (including buses and other commercial vehicles, this figure will exceed 5 million
).
We expect to sell an additional 2.
6 million units in 2019, but the growth rate is only 40%, down from 70% in 2018
.
China will lead again, with sales of about 1.
5 million and 57%
of the global market share.

China's market is in transition, and subsidies are expected to decrease
in February.
The "new energy vehicle" quota came into effect this year, but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest
.
Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slower consumer spending) will also affect global sales
.
In markets such as the United States and the United Kingdom, direct purchase subsidies have begun to gradually decrease
.

Sales of electric vehicles in Europe are expected to be just under 500,000.

Growth in Northern Europe and Germany should be strong
.
Sales in Italy have been slow but should start picking up
in 2019.
And after the government removes support for popular plug-in hybrid models, sales in the UK are likely to be flat or falling
.

Sales in North America should be around 425,000 units in 2019, up modestly from 405,000 units in 2018
.
The surge in Tesla's Model 3 drove sales in the second half of 2018, but that momentum won't be sustainable
unless a low-cost model can be launched quickly.
The total sales volume in Japan and South Korea should be around
100,000.