Feed market fluctuation and market forecast

Introduction: Liu Shaobo, Shi Youlong, Ge Xiang, Liu Nuo (China Agricultural University, 100094) gs21 Corn price situation and current situation GS2 corn is the basis of compound feed Corn price is related to the profit and loss of feed industry and the profit of breeding industry Therefore, corn price has a great impact on the profitability of animal husbandry and feed industry Since last year, the price of corn has been rising At present, the price of corn has been stable In October, the price of corn was 1.20 yuan, down 1.30% from the half year average price of 1.21 yuan Every ton of corn is 12.3 yuan lower than last month Driven by the price of corn, wheat bran, pig feed, broiler feed and layer feed are all cutting prices The most significant decrease was 2.34% in laying hens This is the lowest price for corn in three months It seems that the feed price situation is declining Of course, the situation is different in the provinces In October, the price of corn rose in seven provinces, most of which were Hunan, Qinghai, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Fujian and Shaanxi, accounting for 23.3% of the total There are 18 provinces with GS2 maize price cut, accounting for 60% They are Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, Hebei, Liaoning and Guangdong Price reduction provinces and regions are mainly concentrated in cities and coastal areas Reasons for price reduction: first of all, southern provinces and cities have high prices in the past, so there is room for price reduction When they are about to join the WTO, they are not eager to buy grain and expect to import it In the second autumn, the grain will go on the market, which is estimated to be in a good situation, and they have the psychology of waiting for the price to fall In the third, the price of large livestock production provinces, such as Hebei, Henan and Jiangsu, has also dropped It is estimated that the reason is that in recent years, the profits of pig, layer and broiler have declined, some provinces and regions have reduced their stocks, and the feeding industry has shrunk, resulting in the decrease of corn demand and the decrease of prices 2 The situation of pig feed price and the current situation of GS2 in October, the situation of pig feed price dropped, the retail price was about 1.55 yuan / kg, 2.45% lower than the average half year The price of pig feed last month was 1.57 yuan, 20.2 yuan lower than that of last month In terms of location, there are 20 provinces and regions where the price of pig feed falls in October, most of which are Ningxia, Guizhou, Shandong, Beijing, Shanghai, Hainan, Gansu, Qinghai, Hunan and other provinces The price of pig feed decreased by 66.7% in China Of course, it's related to the decline in corn prices The decrease of pig feed price is mainly concentrated in big cities and the south In October, the price of pig feed increased in 8 provinces and regions, including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei and Jiangxi Price rising provinces are mainly concentrated in the northwest, and the market price is between 1.32 and 1.62 yuan It's normal for pig prices to rise slightly Of course, the current price reduction is greater than the price increase, which is beneficial to pig breeding 3 The situation and current situation of feed price of laying hens the situation of feed price of laying hens in GS2 also fell in October The feed price of laying hens was 1.71 yuan, 0.9% lower than the average of 1.72 yuan in half a year The price is 39.8 yuan lower than that of last month The main reason may be that the laying hens have lost money for a long time and the price of egg materials has also been forced down In October, there were 17 provinces that cut prices, most of which were Ningxia, Tianjin, Beijing, Gansu, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Shandong, Yunnan, Fujian, Henan and Sichuan, accounting for 56.7% Reasons for price reduction: the original high prices in Southwest China are all between 1.90 and 2.01 yuan It's not surprising that the prices are now down; the old egg producing areas are probably due to the loss of laying hens, so the production is compressed IV The price situation of broiler feed is the same as that of current GS2 in October, which is 2.8 yuan lower than that of last month From the perspective of location, there are 10 provinces and regions such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Hebei, Hunan, Shaanxi, and Beijing where the price of broilers has increased Of course, it has something to do with the high price of Broilers and their stability 17 provinces and regions reduced the price, accounting for 56.7% It seems that prices in most provinces have declined Except for Yunnan, Sichuan and Zhejiang, the price of broiler is on the high side, other provinces and regions only have 1.50-1.85 yuan To change feed price, we need to analyze the impact on broiler industry, as well as corn price comparison The best plan is to coordinate all industries to maximize profits V suggestions on feed market In order to make profits, enterprises must grasp the three "differences" of the market: the first is "time difference of market price", i.e seizing the opportunity of market fluctuation; the second is "regional difference of market price", i.e looking for high price zone, the market will always be "the East is not bright and the west is bright"; the third is "structural difference of production", i.e timely change of products required by the market Vi market fluctuation and price forecast of corn price GS2 (1) corn price fluctuation: corn price fluctuation standard is 1.20 yuan The price comparison between it and livestock products reflects the profit situation, and the profit and loss of the breeding industry also affects the demand for corn The profit loss ratio of fat pig is 5.5 to 1; the layer is 5.0; the broiler is 7.5 When animal husbandry is profitable, corn demand will be expanded and prices will rise Table 1 Analysis of corn price fluctuation in China gs21 According to the statistics of 89 months, corn price has two half cycles In 1995, corn price rose to 1.551 yuan in 28 months, which is higher than the international corn price The current cycle has lasted for 51 months: peak 1.293 yuan; trough 1.063 yuan, now 29 months The ratio of pig feed to corn is 144%, egg feed to corn is 158% and chicken feed to corn is 177% The three indicators are all over 130%; 135% and 160% standards It shows that feed pricing is on the high side, which is beneficial to feed industry and animal husbandry Effect of corn price on animal husbandry: in 1995, corn price increased, which reduced the price of pig grain to 5.258; the price of egg grain to 5.202; the price of chicken grain to 6.826, which resulted in the loss of animal husbandry for 28 months In the current cycle, the ration of pig to grain is 5.82; the ration of egg to grain is 5.06; the ration of chicken is 8.531 According to the corn cycle, pig raising, layer raising and Broiler Raising all exceed the profit and loss threshold and can make profits According to statistics, if the corn cycle is 45 months This month has been in the trough for 29 months, which theoretically exceeds the turning point for 7-9 months Feed industry should pay attention to price changes and adjust pricing in time The breeding industry should pay attention to adjust the stock at any time to prevent losses GS2 (2) corn price forecast: Livestock demand affects corn price We use profit situation to analyze market demand The trend forecast is based on the price of this month, the price comparison and the latest cycle value The results are shown in Table 2: GS2 1 In this month, the corn price trend is down 1.43%, which is lower than the corn boundary point and in a low price period, which is favorable for animal husbandry; although the pig profit trend is up 2.56%, the pig breeding is in a loss, which will restrain the development; the layer profit trend is up 5.02%, but the layer is also in a loss; the broiler profit trend is up 2.62%, which is still profitable, and the chicken development will expand the corn demand Gs22 Corn price forecast: Based on the recent situation of animal husbandry, only broilers are profitable, pigs and layers are losing money, which will reduce the demand for corn as a whole, and the price of corn may decline According to the comprehensive forecast of animal husbandry profit and loss, the corn price will fall to about 1.19-1.16 yuan in the near future VII Market fluctuation and price forecast of pig feed GS2 (1) price fluctuation of pig feed: the fluctuation standard of pig feed is 1.60 yuan, and the price ratio of pig feed is 4.50 as the profit and loss boundary point The price ratio of pig feed corn is 130% Table 3 price fluctuation analysis of pig feed in China Obviously, the price of corn is not high and the price of pig feed is on the high side, resulting in the loss of large-scale pig breeding Of course, it is also related to the low price of live pigs Feed industry pricing needs to consider many factors, otherwise it will be damaged Gs22 The profit of large-scale pig raising is related to the price of pig and the price of pig feed According to the cycle of pig feed, the profit of pig raising enterprises has decreased at present However, the profit of pig farming in rural areas is good, and the price of pig food is always higher than 5.5, which has lasted 29 months It is not good for scale raising and technology improvement According to statistics, the fluctuation period of pig feed is about 43 months The current trough has lasted 29 months, and in theory has exceeded the turning point for 8-10 months Feed industry should pay attention to turning point, adjust pricing, feed industry should pay attention to adjust the stock and strive for profit GS2 (2) trend forecast of pig feed price: make trend forecast based on the price of this month, price comparison and recent ratio Table 4 trend analysis of pig feed price GS2 1 Demand research: in this month, the price trend of pig feed decreased by 2.24%, which is less than 130% of the pricing standard As a result, pig feed was reduced due to the loss of pig operation The profit trend of large-scale pig feed increased by 1.17%, but it still lost money Therefore, the demand of pig feed and pig feed will be restrained, and the price of pig feed will decline In this month, the price ratio of corn is 129%, which is already low, and pig feed will also lose money, which leads to the loss of pig feed and pig feed The price of pig feed decreased; the profit trend of pig feed in rural areas increased by 2.56%, and the profit, which inhibited the development of large-scale pig feed, and the price trend of pig feed decreased; the price trend of corn decreased by 1.43%, and the management of pig feed was favorable, but the scale pig feed was in deficit, and the trend price of pig feed might slightly decrease It is suggested that the price of pig feed is low, only 128.54% higher than that of corn Both the enterprise's pig raising and management are in low profit or loss Therefore, the problem does not come from feed Pig breeding should reduce the stock and cost The price of corn in this month is 0.99% lower than that in the previous month, which is favorable for adjusting the price of pig feed It is predicted that the price of pig feed in the near future will be 1.51-1.54 yuan VIII Market fluctuation and price forecast of egg compound feed GS2 (1) price fluctuation of egg material: the fluctuation standard of egg material is 1.80 yuan; the price ratio of egg material is 4.0; the price ratio of egg and grain is 5.0 as the profit and loss boundary point The price of egg corn is 135% Price fluctuation of egg material: the material price of 89 months has been very high, with an average of 1.87 yuan, almost no cycle The high price of egg materials destroyed the enterprise's chicken raising The average material price of 50 months in the peak period is 1.988 yuan, and the corn price ratio is 140% The price is indeed on the high side The price ratio of feed to egg was reduced to 3.666, and the chicken enterprises suffered losses In the near future, the egg material price of Bogu is 1.679 yuan, which has been 30 months The price of corn is 157% The price is still on the high side The laying industry is totally in deficit The price of egg material is reduced to 3.185 The enterprise has only one way to transfer the industry It seems that the unreasonable pricing of feed industry, extraordinary profits, and low egg prices have led to the decline of urban laying industry Gs22 The current egg price ratio is 3.185, but it provides opportunities for rural specialized households According to the egg material cycle, the egg grain price ratio has always exceeded the profit and loss threshold Up to now, it has been kept at 5.050 Banks should be monitored to prevent excess risk Try to keep the egg price 4.5-5.0 yuan, the material ratio 2.5-2.6 yuan, the management fee no more than 1 / 4 of the egg price, and encourage the layer regionalization Egg material trough cycle, has continued 30 months of low prices GS2 (II) price trend forecast: GS2 1 Demand research: the price trend of laying hens in this month decreased by 0.49%, which is higher than the pricing standard of 135%, which may cause the price of laying hens to decrease; the profit trend of laying hens increased by 3.35%, but they still lost money, which will restrain the demand of laying hens and laying hens, and promote the price of laying hens to decline; the price of laying hens in this month was 142%, which is significantly higher, laying hens lost money, and the recent rural profit trend increased by 5.02% Due to low profit, it is unfavorable for the development of large-scale breeding of laying hens, which will lead to the decrease of material price; the price trend of corn will decrease by 1.43%, but the price ratio is more than 135%, the cost of laying hens will increase, and the overall attention will be paid to the decrease of material price It is suggested that the price of laying hens this month is on the high side, which is 142.44% higher than the price The large-scale laying industry has lost money Should