February 24 aluminum market brief commentary

Overnight Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine, Lun aluminum hit a new high, hit the $3400 mark, Shanghai aluminum afternoon plate once rose, then slowed down, internal and external trends are obviously differentiated, as of the close of three points, Shanghai aluminum main force closed up 0.
26% to 22950, up 60 yuan
from the previous trading day.

In terms of news, the Baise area has reduced production by 420,000 tons due to the epidemic, and although the local aluminum industry chain has received strong policy support to help it resume work and production, it will still take some time
to resume production.
In February, production capacity is expected to decrease by about
0.
44% from January.
With the recovery of power supply and the relaxation of the dual control policy on energy consumption, it is expected that electrolytic aluminum production will gradually recover
in 2022.
The LME and the aluminum inventory of the previous period are at a low level
in the past five years.
The downstream new energy vehicle industry, 5G new infrastructure and other industries are expected to have a period of rapid growth, and the demand side is good
.
Short-term aluminum prices are expected to run
high.

From the trend point of view, under the overseas European energy crisis and Russian sanctions concerns, Lun aluminum support is strong
.
However, considering the relative stability of domestic inventory and supply and demand, short-term aluminum prices may maintain shock consolidation, the main force of Shanghai aluminum temporarily pays attention to the 22500-23200 range shock, whether the main force can stand firm at the 23000 mark needs to be tested, and it is recommended to buy a small amount in operation; It is expected that spot aluminum prices will rise
tomorrow.