-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternational aspects:
1.
The change in ADP employment in the United States recorded 234,000 in January, down 16,000 from 250,000 in the previous month, but significantly higher than the expected 185,000, and the small non-farm payrolls were much higher than expected, which caused the Fed to raise interest rates in March
.
2.
Eurozone February CPI data showed that the preliminary CPI increased by 1.
2% year-on-year, unchanged from expectations and slightly lower than the previous value of 1.
3%.
At the same time, it remains below the ECB's 2% target
.
Eurozone flash core CPI rose 1% year-on-year in February, unchanged from expectations and the previous reading
.
Copper demand in the eurozone is generally good
.
Domestic aspects:
1.
China's Caixin composite PMI in January was 53.
7, up 0.
7 percentage points from 53 in the previous month, hitting a seven-year high, indicating that China's economic activity maintained solid growth
.
China's CPI rose 1.
5% year-on-year in January, but the increase was 0.
3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and it has been below 2%
for 12 consecutive months.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to cable network monitoring data, in February, domestic copper prices still failed to get rid of the weak pattern of the previous month, and copper prices once fluctuated and fell, although in mid-to-late February there was a short-term rebound market, but the strength was not strong
.
The spot market also followed the futures price decline, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 52850 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 52430 yuan / ton, down 420 yuan, or 0.
79%.
Macro: Domestically, February coincides with the traditional Chinese New Year, and there is not much
domestic news.
The official manufacturing PMI data for February released at the end of the month was 50.
30, significantly lower than the expected 51.
1, which once caused panic
among investors.
The subsequent Caixin manufacturing PMI for February came in at 51.
60, beating expectations
.
Overall, both output and employment indices declined, and the new orders index rose slightly, reflecting stable demand and slightly stronger than output
.
Analysts said that the weak price is mainly affected by the off-season factors of Spring Festival holiday consumption, the pace of production and expansion of enterprises has slowed down, and the import and export index has also declined
for two consecutive months.
Abroad, recently, the hawkish speech of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell in his testimony to Congress has raised the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, the dollar has continued to rebound to suppress the commodity market, non-ferrous metals have collectively fallen, and copper prices have been suppressed
.
Market: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic spot copper market trading situation in February was very light
.
Before the Spring Festival, most traders had an early holiday in late January and early February, which greatly limited the activity of
the spot copper market.
In terms of downstream merchants, although they were closed in the second week of February, most of them had no procurement plans, and the market supply and demand were relatively cold
.
After the Spring Festival, although the market activity gradually recovered, the overall transaction situation is still not satisfactory, and there are still many merchants who have not returned to the market, and it is expected that this situation will improve after a while
.
(ii) Future-market forecasts
(ii) Future-market forecastsAfter the Spring Festival, some manufacturers have not yet started work, the downstream procurement situation is poor, the overall market demand has not improved, and copper prices after recovering the previous decline, continue to rise need to be driven by demand, so the short-term performance is weak
.
In addition, the latest February PMI data fell short of expectations, causing investors to worry about the trend of China's economy, and domestic Shanghai copper fell below
52,000 at one point.
It is expected that in March, in the environment of the two sessions in China, copper prices will not fluctuate too much, and as the downstream continues to start and consumption picks up, copper prices are expected to show a volatile upward situation
.
12345Next View full article
12345Next View full article
