Factors of strong wheat price in off season this year

Introduction: at present, the trend of domestic wheat price remains stable Last year, from the beginning of new wheat harvest, the market price began to decline gradually This year, on the contrary, the main reasons for this phenomenon are summarized in the following aspects: FXn 1, decreased sowing area, adverse weather conditions, and decreased production According to the information released by the Ministry of agriculture, this year's wheat planting area has been reduced by more than 10 million mu At the same time, there was a cold weather at the end of April in the main wheat producing areas, which led to the decline of wheat quality and per unit yield It is reported that this year's wheat output is about 90 million tons Fxn2 The demand of domestic wheat market steadily increased In 2001, China's annual consumption of wheat reached 118 million tons, with an annual increase of about 1% Due to the rigidity of grain consumption, the total consumption of wheat in China will only increase steadily in a short period of time, but will not decrease significantly Fxn3 The level of domestic wheat stock has declined in recent years In recent years, China's wheat stock has been decreasing year by year Relevant agencies predict that the supply of domestic wheat market in 2001 / 2002 is 9484 million tons, and the total annual consumption is about 116.66 million tons In this way, about 218.3 million tons of stored wheat will be consumed This year, China's wheat stock will not exceed 38 million tons According to the forecast of the Ministry of agriculture, the gap between China's wheat supply and demand next year will be even larger than this year's The gap will reach 254.2 million tons, and the inventory next year will be only about 100 million tons, which will be the lowest year of domestic wheat inventory since the 1960s The decline of stock level has added impetus to the domestic wheat market FXn 4 Performance of import and export market FXn according to statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to July this year, China exported 457000 tons of wheat, an increase of 225% year on year After China's accession to the WTO, the tariff quota of Wheat Import in the first year was 7.3 million tons, and reached 9.3 million tons in 2004 In late August, China imported only less than 500000 tons of wheat, which was far away from the quota In the later period, with the large number of high-quality wheat listed in China, the barriers of Wheat Import increased, which was good for China's wheat market At present, FXn's domestic wheat market is in a good development space, and market promotion factors occupy the dominant position in the market, resulting in an anti seasonal increase in market prices In the short term, wheat prices will still maintain a good development trend, and prices still have the momentum to continue to rise FXN