Experts predict that China's corn export will decline and import will increase this year

Introduction: China's export subsidies to corn are relatively high, so corn will be the most affected agricultural products after the elimination of subsidies According to the analysis of relevant experts, the domestic corn export will continue to decline this year, while the corn import of the South (the main feed processing area) will increase significantly The price difference between domestic and international corn market is large, so it can't be connected in a short period of time The elimination of export subsidies will inevitably affect China's corn export Although China's subsidy for corn export reached 360-420 yuan / ton last year, the export volume fell to 6 million tons from 10 million tons in the previous year, a drop of 42.7% Judging from the situation at the beginning of this year, the sales price of new corn in Huang Huai Region of North China, a corn producing area in China, has increased significantly The purchase price in some areas of Shandong Province has exceeded 900 yuan / ton, and the market sales price is more than 1000 yuan / ton The price of corn in Fujian is more than 1100 yuan / ton Although the circulation cost of China's corn accounts for 30% of its transaction price, experts believe that it will take a process to reduce the export cost to make up for the income reduced by the cancellation of subsidies, which cannot be realized in the short term Therefore, this year's corn export will continue to decline, but will not fall to zero First of all, "non GMO corn" will become the biggest advantage of China's corn export, and the northern production areas have begun to reduce costs to ensure the export to traditional areas (mainly South Korea) 6xm this year, corn import in China, especially in the South will increase significantly, but the impact on the international market price is limited In view of the fact that the price of corn in China is about 30% higher than that in the international market at present, and the main feed processing areas in China are in the south, experts pointed out that it should be expected that the increase of corn import in the South after the quota is actually issued Although the final import volume is difficult to estimate at present, it will certainly be much higher than the 39000 tons last year The final import volume mainly depends on two factors: first, the specific management of tariff quota in China From the perspective of the quota application conditions announced by relevant departments, the restrictions on the application of quotas for non-state-owned trading enterprises are reflected in the scale, especially the higher requirements for the non feed corn import enterprises; on the other hand, whether it can break through the obstacles of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms and the detailed rules This regulation will increase the import procedures and costs of corn for food and feed, and its impact is much stronger than that on soybean import China has begun to increase the intensity of corn deep processing, such as the production of methanol gasoline, etc according to the prediction of relevant parties, it is expected that the industrial corn will increase greatly in 2002 Although it will be a great advantage for GM maize to enter China However, it is worth noting that at present, the enterprises engaged in corn deep processing are mainly concentrated in the north, close to the main production area, so it is difficult to import corn for this purpose 6xm however, with the annual consumption of about 110 million tons of corn in China, it is not impossible to digest the import quota of 5.85 million tons this year According to the analysis of relevant experts, although the export of corn from the north and the import of corn from the South can close the price gap between the domestic and international markets, on the whole, the increase of China's corn import this year will not have a great impact on the international market price, because the price of major international agricultural products has been declining since 1996, even though China's import volume increases by 5 million tons a year It is not enough to level the price of the international market with that of the domestic market With the increase of corn import quota of 6xm, the pattern of export oriented corn in China will change significantly in the past two years With the decrease of export and the increase of import, the total supply level of corn in China will be higher than before In addition, the planting area of corn in China is likely to increase this year, especially after the import quota is put into practice, the price of corn will fall 6xm