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S&P Global Ratings said in a recent report that wholesale electricity prices in Europe could soar by about
30% by 2025 due to the recovery in natural gas and carbon emission prices and plans to phase out some coal- and nuclear power generation units.
S&P said the supply gap could be filled by an increase in renewable solar power generation in Europe, which will increase its share of the electricity mix from 23% in 2018 to 43%.
Massimo Schiavo, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings, said: "We think the growth of renewables will suggest that prices will depend more on the weather and require grid investment and backup solutions to ensure security
of supply.
" ”
Utilities such as EDF in France, Statkraft AS in Norway, Fortum Oyj in Finland, Uniper SE in Germany and Verbund AG in Austria are all likely to benefit
from this trend.
"However, the credit impact of higher electricity prices on most large European utilities should be more limited as their EBITDA sensitivity to merchant electricity has decreased significantly," the report said.
Wholesale electricity prices will decline in 2020 compared to 2019, but will rise in all markets until 2023 due to the combined impact of rising fuel and carbon permit prices and large (coal-fired) power plant closures
, S&P said.
The EU said Germany, a net exporter of electricity to Europe, is likely to become increasingly dependent on imports as it plans to shut down significant nuclear and coal-fired power generation
in the coming years.
France also plans to close its remaining coal-fired power plants by 2022 and will halt production at its oldest nuclear plant, Fessenheim
, next summer.
"We expect installed capacity of hard coal and lignite to fall by 60%
by 2025," the report said.
Many markets will be coal-free, starting with France in 2022 and followed by the UK, Spain and Italy
in 2025.
”
The biggest closure was in Germany, where coal capacity would fall by 35 percent
, S&P said.
In addition, nuclear power generation capacity in Europe is expected to decline by 19%, mainly in Germany and Belgium, which will become nuclear-free by
2022 and 2025.
This means that Germany needs more renewable energy to fill and will therefore become more and more dependent on imports
.
France's nuclear capacity levels should remain stable, with the only closure being the 1.
8 GW Fessenheim nuclear power plant, which will be replaced
by the 1.
6 GW Flamanville 3 EPR under construction in northern France, the report said.
While the Flamanville 3, which was scheduled to start in 2012, experienced several delays and is now scheduled to begin
in 2023.
S&P Global Ratings said in a recent report that wholesale electricity prices in Europe could soar by about
30% by 2025 due to the recovery in natural gas and carbon emission prices and plans to phase out some coal- and nuclear power generation units.
S&P said the supply gap could be filled by an increase in renewable solar power generation in Europe, which will increase its share of the electricity mix from 23% in 2018 to 43%.
Massimo Schiavo, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings, said: "We think the growth of renewables will suggest that prices will depend more on the weather and require grid investment and backup solutions to ensure security
of supply.
" ”
Utilities such as EDF in France, Statkraft AS in Norway, Fortum Oyj in Finland, Uniper SE in Germany and Verbund AG in Austria are all likely to benefit
from this trend.
"However, the credit impact of higher electricity prices on most large European utilities should be more limited as their EBITDA sensitivity to merchant electricity has decreased significantly," the report said.
Wholesale electricity prices will decline in 2020 compared to 2019, but will rise in all markets until 2023 due to the combined impact of rising fuel and carbon permit prices and large (coal-fired) power plant closures
, S&P said.
The EU said Germany, a net exporter of electricity to Europe, is likely to become increasingly dependent on imports as it plans to shut down significant nuclear and coal-fired power generation
in the coming years.
France also plans to close its remaining coal-fired power plants by 2022 and will halt production at its oldest nuclear plant, Fessenheim
, next summer.
"We expect installed capacity of hard coal and lignite to fall by 60%
by 2025," the report said.
Many markets will be coal-free, starting with France in 2022 and followed by the UK, Spain and Italy
in 2025.
”
The biggest closure was in Germany, where coal capacity would fall by 35 percent
, S&P said.
In addition, nuclear power generation capacity in Europe is expected to decline by 19%, mainly in Germany and Belgium, which will become nuclear-free by
2022 and 2025.
This means that Germany needs more renewable energy to fill and will therefore become more and more dependent on imports
.
France's nuclear capacity levels should remain stable, with the only closure being the 1.
8 GW Fessenheim nuclear power plant, which will be replaced
by the 1.
6 GW Flamanville 3 EPR under construction in northern France, the report said.
While the Flamanville 3, which was scheduled to start in 2012, experienced several delays and is now scheduled to begin
in 2023.
