Dynamic analysis of the current corn raw material Market

Introduction: first, whether the current price is high or low, whether the current price is high or low should be considered from two sides: 1 As the sales price of new grain Take Jilin, the main corn producing area, as an example At present, the highest delivery price of car board is 1110 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 1090 yuan / ton, and the average price is 1100 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is mostly 1100 yuan / ton According to the local grain depot in Gongzhuling, the local corn purchase price is 0.53-0.535 yuan (equivalent to 1060-1070 yuan / ton) According to the current situation, the new grain purchased has basically reached the standard water (14 water), after the purchase of 1070 yuan / ton, it can be delivered out of the warehouse without drying and airing, and reasonable expenses are removed The profit per ton of the intermediate difference is also between 30 and 40 yuan, and the price is slightly higher according to this standard 2 As the selling price of grain Because the selling cost of old grain consists of purchasing price and a series of expenses such as drying, drying, storage, etc., the current market price has not reached the price at which it is sold at a favorable price Taking the price of corn in 1998 in Jilin Province as an example, the cost of sale at a favorable price is about 1130 yuan / ton Therefore, compared with the sale price of grain, the current market price is significantly lower 2 The reasonable price (yuan / ton) is 1130-1160 yuan / ton Why to choose this price is mainly based on the current situation of corn market, the main feedstuff material: 1 Meteorological factors: the spring drought delayed the sowing time of corn by nearly half a month compared with the normal time In addition, with the continuous deterioration of the drought and the decline of the seedling rate, the psychological expectation for the increase of this year's output has seriously declined The weather factor is a major factor to promote the early stage and determine the price trend in the later stage According to the prediction of the provincial agricultural meteorological station, with the continuous increase of rainfall in the later stage, this summer Once the forecast is confirmed, it is inevitable that the price will rise again 2 Reluctant to sell Psychology: in the short term, reluctant to sell psychology will become the driving force of corn price rise without macro-control 3 Demand factors: due to seasonal factors, southern feed raw material processing enterprises enter the peak production season, and the inventory consumption speed is accelerated According to the information, southern inventory has been basically exhausted Once the supply is out of order, the positive purchasing enthusiasm will rise, and the price will rise accordingly 4 The down price sales policy provides a strong support for the upward price of corn 5 With the increase of railway freight, the purchase cost in the sales area will increase In the case of high price in the production area, the price in the sales area will increase 6 Some major corn producing countries in the world, affected by transgenic and foot-and-mouth disease, have a tight export situation, which provides opportunities for China's corn export Considering many factors, at present, the market is developing in the direction that is conducive to the upward price, but we do not exclude the factors that are unfavorable to the price rise The overall trend is favorable to the upward price of corn, and the expectation of the price rise in the later period is optimistic 3 The main problems and reasons in the current corn raw material market 1 Poor quality From the quality of corn in the main production areas, there is a certain gap between the quality of high-quality corn and that of foreign corn, with more impurities and less nutrients, which has become a major factor for the unfavorable export of corn and the slow rise of domestic prices 2 The development of deep processing industry is slow At present, the varieties of corn deep-processing products in the north and South are a little single, and the supply is insufficient, the gap between production and demand is large These phenomena are mainly due to the unreasonable production structure, the imperfect production and deep processing system of high-quality, high-tech and complete varieties of corn How to change this production situation and make corn more reasonable and scientific in a series of links such as production, storage and processing will become the key to promote corn production, processing and broaden the circulation channels Weight 4 The market trend, foreseeable problems and price changes of raw materials in the second half of the year; the corn market in the second half of the year will still be dominated by rising trend before the listing of autumn grain Due to China's possible accession to the WTO this year, China will import 4 million tons of corn from the United States every year in the first three years The price of corn from Chicago futures exchange of the United States fell to the lowest point in mid June, only 82 US dollars per ton Although it has recovered, the increase is not large, and the prospect is not optimistic Entering China's market at such a low price will certainly have a certain impact on the domestic market In combination with international and domestic factors, the prospect of corn market is still clear In the second half of the year, corn price The range of change will not be too large, and the overall trend is mainly upward, which does not exclude the possibility of small fluctuations V suggestions for further standardizing the raw material Market How to make the circulation field of corn market more standardized and rationalized is the focus of our attention at present First of all, in order to meet the needs of the development of market economy, we must push the enterprise to the market, so that the enterprise really has the functions of independent operation, independent cost-effective and self financing, form the survival of the fittest in the market, and better adapt to the needs of social and economic development Secondly, how to improve the technology processing level of corn market has become an important research topic in the future (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: