Dynamic analysis of oil market this week

Introduction: this week, Hebei, Shandong oil market has a small rebound The price of crude soybean oil increased from 4250 yuan / ton last week to 4270-4280 yuan / ton Moreover, the purchase intention of the merchants is strong, and there are many sources to look for Affected by this, the price of secondary soybean oil also rose synchronously The price of secondary soybean oil in Shijiazhuang market in Hebei Province has risen to 4500 yuan / ton The author thinks that the main reasons for this change are as follows: 1 Centralized stock up before the Spring Festival The Spring Festival has always been a traditional festival in China The group consumption and personal consumption are relatively concentrated The consumption of high-grade salad oil and other oils is relatively large, and the demand for soybean oil is relatively large In addition, looking back on the market changes in the Mid Autumn Festival this year, more than a month before the festival, the oil market began to rebound, so it is not difficult for us to believe that it is possible for businesses to prepare goods in advance 2 Views on China's accession to the WTO China is a big oil consumption country After China's accession to the WTO in 2002, the quota of 5.8 million tons will have a great impact on the international market once it is released According to the estimate of the United States Department of agriculture, China's 2.518 million tons of soybean oil quota accounted for 30% of the global soybean oil export in 2001 / 02; China's 2.4 million tons of palm oil quota accounted for 13% of the global palm oil export in 2001 / 02; China's 879000 tons of rapeseed oil quota accounted for 35% of the global rapeseed oil export in 2001 / 02 At present, many businesses see this According to the latest price, once China issues quotas, the oil price in the international market starts to rise The impact of oil import on the domestic market is not terrible 3 According to the statistics of import and export, as of October this year, the import volume of rapeseed in China has decreased by 2.56 million tons year on year, equivalent to 1.04 million tons of rapeseed oil Recently, the cost price of imported rapeseed in the domestic market is about 2600 yuan / ton (US $245 / ton CIF) The cost price of rapeseed oil is relatively high, which has a great impact on the domestic market Recently, the market of rapeseed oil in China has remained strong The quoted price in Xi'an is about 4900 yuan / ton, which is also a big driving force for the market of secondary soybean oil 4 Some oil businesses began to replenish the stock Near the end of the year, some of the oil reserves that originally carried out oil rotation in advance started to replenish the oil reserves when they were not very sure about the future market Their activities actually increased a demand factor of the oil market, which was beneficial to the market 5 Finally, I would like to remind you that the domestic oil processing enterprises have been operating difficultly since the second half of 2000 and have suffered a lot of losses Affected by capital and other factors, the oil stock is limited Once the market changes, the supply will be relatively sufficient I believe that the above points will promote the domestic Spring Festival around a period of time, the oil market appears a small rising market However, we also have to believe that, after all, those who are going to join the WTO soon will also have to leave the warehouse ahead of time if they have replenishment; moreover, 1.2 million tons of port beans can also support for a period of time, and the reason for the sharp rebound of market price is not sufficient, so we hope that businesses can operate cautiously.